Archive - Feb 2013

Just days before the UK's Barclays bank is set to unveil the number of staff who earned more than GBP1 million last year in its annual report, as part of a push for more transparency, the FT reports that a provisional EU deal - set to go into place in January 2014, will bring the most severe pay crackdown since the 2008 crisis began. European Bankers' bonuses (and their US subsidiaries) are to be capped at two times bankers' salaries and banks will be subject to a strict transparency regime after a late Wednesday European parliament vote secured agreement on a mandatory 1:1 ratio on salary relative to variable pay, which can rise to 2:1 with explicit shareholder approval. With the UK 'threatening' referenda in the future, the deal, if confirmed, is a major victory for the EU parliament negotiators, who insisted on pay curbs as their price for passing Basel; and a sign of London’s relative isolation on some financial services issues. As far as a workaround, the EU commissioner responsible for the reforms, said it was "difficult to imagine now that we would scrap this compromise," though we are sure they will find a way, especially as MEPs want the tougher version eventually to apply to hedge funds and investment managers.

If it doesn't go up, it might just go down. 

This letter is a few days old, but is very important for every American to be aware of. Essentially, Rand Paul is threatening to filibuster Barack Obama’s nominee for the CIA, John Brennan, due to his refusal to answer a simple question: Do you believe that the President has the power to authorize lethal force, such as a drone strike, against a U.S. citizen on U.S. soil, and without trial? This should not be a complicated question to answer, yet it seems Obama, Brennan and pretty much every other little power consumed bureaucrat is incapable of doing so.

Why Jamie Dimon is richer than you...

Two weeks ago, Wal-Mart stunned the world when a leaked memo discloses that February sales had been a "total disaster" and the company was facing the worst February start since 2006. Today, Bloomberg's deep throat in Bentonville strikes again, as a new leak emerges. "Wal-Mart Stores Inc (WMT), already struggling to woo shoppers constrained by higher taxes, is “"getting worse" at keeping shelves stocked, the retailer’s U.S. chief told executives, according to minutes of an officers’ meeting obtained by Bloomberg News. "We run out quickly and the new stuff doesn’t come in," U.S. Chief Executive Officer Bill Simon said, according to the minutes of the Feb. 1 meeting. Simon called “self-inflicted wounds” Wal-Mart’s “biggest risk” and said an executive vice president had been appointed to fix the restocking problem, according to the minutes."

The increasingly inverted structure of Japan’s population pyramid, with fewer young people than old people, means that it will be very difficult to generate the tax revenues necessary to pay for the healthcare needs of the elderly. Many have argued that a smaller population in Japan is a good thing, because the country is currently very crowded—indeed, many Japanese feel this way.  Whether or not this is true, it is certain that Japan will face major challenges in responding to the pragmatic issues of managing and maintaining an infrastructure built by and for a much larger population, as well as issues such as shifting economic patterns and workforce composition as a result of a changing age structure of the society. Today, the Japanese have no desire for empire and expansion, but the fact remains that population is a variable that remains central to how Japan, and its neighbors, will interact and respond to tensions, such as the current problems surrounding disputed territory in East Asia.

As you all knw, we cannot believe erverything we see or hear, can we? Now if you will excuse me I must be on my way.--Jimi Hendrix

Those who listened to Bernanke's three hour oratory before the House Committee today noticed something different: the Chairman's tone was far more resigned, and as noted previously, on occasion devolved into incoherent, illogical ramblings that may be satisfactory for an introductory economics class at Clown College (aka Princeton), but certainly are inappropriate for the man who runs the world's most important printer. And while as expected the bulk of the Q&A session focused on the sequester, there were enough pearls one could shake a GDP hockeystick at. We have extracted the best of these exchanges below. However, the definitive five minutes comes from this fiery confrontation between Sean Duffy and the Chairman, in which the republican has obviously had enough with the monetary policy chief coming in Congress and telling Congress how to conduct fiscal policy, when it is Bernanke's deficit-monetizing actions that allow zero-cost borrowing and thus profligate, indiscriminate spending to result in such lunacy as total US debt just hitting a record 16,618,701,810,927.77.  From the negative jobs impact resulting from cutting Moroccan Pottery Classes, no longer handing out Obamaphones, stopping the payment of travel expenses for the watermelon queen in Alabama, and most importantly preventing shrimp from running on a treadmill, to Bernanke explaining how a 2% cut in the budget would result in mass mayhem, in the context of a 1% interest rise resulting in $100 billion in additional interest expense, and much, much more, the Chairman ties it all together.

Democratic lawmaker Representative Edward Markey of Massachusetts has used information from the Interior Department to form a report which claims that more than 100 oil and gas producers, including Chevron Corp., BP Plc, Exxon Mobil Corp., Royal Dutch Shell Plc, and ConocoPhillips, have benefitted from bungled leases awarded by the federal government. The leases enabled the companies to drill for oil and gas in federal waters without paying, or at least paying at a much lower rate, any royalties.

Bernanke gave more testimony on Wednesday emphasizing and defending all Fed policies. He successfully parried all questions about QE and ZIRP risks and made no mention of any policy exit dates. Bulls translation, the printing press will be on “auto” to infinity.

Interesting testimony tidbits were:

“Fed could go some time without sending profits to Treasury,” (Fed is allowed to be a deadbeat).

“Savers will benefit with economic recovery; savers won't get strong returns in a weak economy,” (So not in my lifetime?).

"Wealth Effect"

Addressing a question yesterday, from Senator Bob Corker, on his "being the biggest dove since World War II" and the "degrading effects that he's having on society," Bernanke responded proudly that be believed his "inflation record is the best of any Federal Reserve Chairman in the post-war period." Of course that is by his measure. We suggest, he and few of his transitory colleagues look at the chart below for a sense of just what his 'dovishness' looks like to the rest of the food- and energy-consuming world... or perhaps by 'best' he means 'most'.

H. L. Mencken correctly observed: "Government is actually the worst failure of civilized man. There has never been a really good one, and even those that are most tolerable are arbitrary, cruel, grasping and unintelligent." The following 14 rhetorical questions should provide food for thought as they suggest... "you might live in a country founded by geniuses but run by idiots."