Archive - Feb 2013

It’s Valentine’s Day – a unique combination of Hallmark Holiday, celebration of romantic love, and source of self-loathing angst, all depending on your personal situation.  And in that Rorschach test located in the local drugstore’s greeting card aisle, ConvergEx's Nick Colas finds some useful lessons about investing and economic development.  Most divorced Americans remarry, for example, within four years of the end of their first marriage.  Any surprise that investors are looking to hitch up with stocks again, some six years after that messy divorce in 2007?  More scientifically, the brain functions of people in love use the same bits of the cranium as we all light up when assessing the pros and cons of a given investment.  “Don’t fall in love with your positions” is good advice. A central observation to a lot of Nick's work: investing isn’t any different from many of the other decisions we make in our lives.  Love, heartache, winning investments, losing positions – it matters not.  Our decisions in life all filter through the same personality. There’s an old saying: “What does every bad relationship you’ve ever had share in common? You.”  More optimistically, all the good ones have the same feature.

It seems the mere opening of the US equity markets is enough to spark renewed excitement over the fact that Europe's GDP data must be troughing right - or Japan's? Whatever it is, Silver (and gold) is getting monkey-hammered as Stocks surge on negligible volume... FX markets not so much; Treasuries not so much; credit not so much; Oil not so much...

When even a "bond king" says the stock market is broken, is it not time for "the retail investor is coming back" cheerleaders to finally throw in the towel?

Gross: After open, stock mkt doesn’t move ‘til close. Very strange. Fast trades clipping .01’s but little risk taking. New form capitalism

— PIMCO (@PIMCO) February 14, 2013

The ongoing message from the mainstream media, analysts and most economists is that the economy has turned the corner and we are set for substantially stronger growth in the coming year.  While that sounds great on the surface the economic data has yet to hint at such a robust recovery.  What is worrisome is that CNBC has started using the term "Goldilocks economy" again which is what we were hearing as we approached the peak of the market in early 2008.  As David Rosenberg pointed out in his morning missive: "Maybe, it's just this:  so long as there is a positive sign in front of any economic metric, no matter how microscopic, all is good.  After all, you can't be 'sort of in recession' - it's like being pregnant... either you are or you are not." The bottom line is that ex-artificial stimulus, and other fiscal supports, there is little in the way of an economic recovery currently going on.  In order for the economy to reach "escape velocity" it will be on the back of sharply rising employment and wages which are needed to prime consumer spending.  This is not happening as the the gap between wages and rising cost of living continues to drive the consumer to shore up that shortfall with more debt.  

The European Commission formally endorsed the financial transaction tax agreed to by eleven of the 27 members. The tax will be set at 0.1% for stocks and bonds and 0.01% for derivatives. The tax will go into effect at the start of 2014, by which time the participating countries will give it formal approval.

There seems to be two purposes of the tax. The first is to raise revenue. The EC projects the tax will raise 30-35 bln euros annually where ever and whenever an instrument from eleven is traded. This would seem to block the ability to avoid the tax by moving transactions out of the eleven countries. It reinforces the "residence principle". This essentially means that if some one is a resident of the eleven countries, or acting on behalf of a resident, the transaction will be taxed anywhere it takes place. The other purpose is to deter the high frequency trading, which some officials see as largely unnecessary and potentially destabilizing.

An investment bank having a Sell rating on a stock? Usually an unheard of thing: why alienate the management, why prevent future banking business - it's not like banks are ethical creatures - and sure enough in this particular case, the bank in question had sell recos on just 14% of the stocks in its coverage universe. Which begs the question: what does a Sell rating really accomplish? Well, in this case, and in all such cases, it merely provides the firm's prop, pardon flow, traders the opportunity to accumulate the shares its "clients" are advised by the same bank's sellside group  to Sell, preferably to the bank in question. Who are we talking about? Take a wild guess...

European economies straight from script of Les Miserables. The dispensing of horsemeat on the Continent in food and otherwise. The oncoming of some sort of Asian Flu. Class warfare in America and the entire construct supported by a House of Cards relying solely on the printing presses housed in Washington, Frankfurt, London, Tokyo and Beijing. The beginnings of a small game of “Currency Wars” and the markets sit and ask the famous question; “What, me worry?” Getting it right is NOT as important as not getting it wrong. Besides an event then, the next Black Swan that may appear on the horizon, there is a fundamental mis-match now caused by the actions of the central banks. The money pours out like honey and must be used somewhere and so it is but the economic fundamentals are horribly out of tune with the next high notes that are being played in the markets.

Unfortunately for the apparently not quite big enough to not fail Italian bank's former leaders, the Monte Paschi derivative debacle just won't go away. As Reuters reports today, the first (or many) arrests have been made. Gianluca Baldassarri and four other people suspected of criminal conspiracy to commit fraud were arrested after police seized EUR40mm of apparently ill-gotten gains. The alleged fraud and bribery case charges Baldassarri (who left shortly after the arrival of the new CEO in Jan 2012) of misleading regulators over the true nature of a secret derivative contract that was found in a safe by the bank's new management in October 2012. Echoing JPM's London Whale, they uncovered a 'systematic overshooting of risk limits' in the management of the group's EUR24bn prop book. Baldassarri was arrested quickly after the police found evidence that he was trying to cash in securities worth over EUR1mm soon after the funds were seized.

Europe Q4 GDP declines 0.6%, and economy contracts 0.9%. No one should be surprised at the latest disappointing European GDP numbers, but they hide important trends – Germany’s Q4 0.6% GDP drop was worse than expected, although the expectations remain for growth later this year. For the rest of Europe the numbers were generally worse than expected – and no one credible is talking about significant growth prospects. (Sure, the Euro Elites are telling us they see growth tomorrow.. but tomorrow is always tomorrow..) My current interest in Spain was pricked by Blackrock CEO Larry Fink’s comments to ABC following a visit to Madrid. He reckons “Spain will be a star economy if reforms continue.” Spain last ran a balanced budget in Q1 2008 when growth was 2%. Now the economy is shrinking 1.7% on an annualised basis.” That’s a massive amount of catch up to be achieved. We are looking at another 3-4 years of economic misery just to get the Spanish economy back into the EU’s 3% deficit/GDP groove. Then we’re looking at on-going relative poverty for Spanish workers within Europe. At some point... something has to give...

"Crony love is a smoke made with the fume of corruption and lies.--WilliamBanzai Shakespeare

The last time the US government showed its predictive data crunching euphoria, was the week of January 24 when the fine folks at the Department of Labor "estimated" the initial claims for the most populat US state - California, resulting in the lowest initial claims print since January 2008, or 335K (followed promptly by a claims surge the week after). Today, we just got an initial claims print of 341K, far below expectations of a 360K number, and even more below last week's upward (of course) revised number of 368K. On the surface- great. Until one reads the actual release: "Jobless claims for Connecticut and Illinois were estimated by the Labor Department, a spokesman said as the figures were being released." Because apparently, the "blizzard upset the application process." And there you have it. The government no longer even pretends to collect data when pulling numbers out of thin air and seasonally adjusting it. Now it literally makes up numbers, and then seasonally adjusts it. Since the number is now nothing but noise, there is no point to even comment on it. In the meantime, the algos are more than happy to react to even absolutely meaningless "data" - just as expected.

Just a purely accidental modest to quite modest increase in the Heinz June $65 call open interest yesterday, and an even more accidental $1.5 million profit in one day? Surely the new Morgan Stanely head of the SEC will get right on it, and market "credibility" will be preserved.

"Under the terms of the agreement, which has been unanimously approved by Heinz’s Board of Directors, Heinz shareholders will receive $72.50 in cash for each share of common stock they own, in a transaction valued at $28 billion, including the assumption of Heinz’s outstanding debt. The transaction will be financed through a combination of cash provided by Berkshire Hathaway and affiliates of 3G Capital, rollover of existing debt, as well as debt financing that has been committed by J.P. Morgan and Wells Fargo. Berkshire Hathaway owns and invests in leading businesses across a variety of industries, including numerous iconic brands. 3G Capital is a global investment firm focused on long-term value creation, with a particular emphasis on building and expanding great brands and businesses. Advisors for this transaction include: Centerview Partners and BofA Merrill Lynch as financial advisors to Heinz and Davis Polk & Wardwell LLP as legal advisor to Heinz. Moelis & Company acted as advisors to the Transaction Committee of Heinz’s Board of Directors and Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz served as legal advisor to the Transaction Committee of Heinz’s Board of Directors. Lazard served as lead financial advisor. J.P. Morgan and Wells Fargo also served as financial advisors to the investment consortium. Kirkland & Ellis LLP is acting as legal advisor to 3G Capital. Munger, Tolles & Olson LLP is acting as legal advisor to Berkshire Hathaway."

• John Kerry just got happier: Berkshire Hathaway, 3G Buying Heinz for $72.50 a Share, or $28 Billion - ~20% premium to last price (CNBC)
• US Airways, AMR to Merge (WSJ) - can thousands of workers spell "synergies"?
• Draghi, Carney show ascent of "whatever it takes" central bankers (BBG) ... to preserve the Goldman way of life
• Euro zone economy falls deeper than expected into recession (Reuters)
• Soros has made $1 billion betting against the Japanese Yen (WSJ)
• Ex-Analyst at SAC Felt Pressured for Tips  (WSJ)
• Desalination Seen Booming at 15% a Year as World Water Dries Up (BBG)
• China's 'Wall' Hits Business (WSJ)
• Israel publishes some details as Australian spy mystery deepens (Reuters)
• Tata Motors Profit Falls 52% (WSJ)
• AB InBev Will Sell Corona Unit to Salvage Modelo Takeover (BBG)
• "Blade Runner" Pistorius charged with murdering girlfriend (Reuters)
• In Ohio and beyond, Obama sees model for manufacturing revival (Reuters)

Latest from my friend David Kotok.  I think both he and Meredith Whitney are too bullish on the banks