Archive - Feb 2013

It started overnight in Japan, where Q4 GDP posted a surprising and disappointing 3rd quarter of declines, then quickly spread to France, whose Q4 GDP declined -0.3% Q/Q missing expectations of a -0.2% drop, down from a +0.1% increase, then Germany, whose GDP also missed expectations of a -0.5% drop, declining from a +0.2% increase to a -0.6% drop, then on to Italy (-0.9% vs Exp. -0.6%, last -0.2%), Portugal (-1.8%, Exp. -1.0%, last -0.9%), Greece (down -6.0%, previously -6.7%), Hungary (-0.9%, Exp. -0.3%), Austria (-0.2%, down from 0.1%), Cyprus (-3.1%, last -2.0%), and so on. To summarize: Eurozone GDP dropped far more than expected, or posting a -0.6% decline in Q4, worse than the -0.4% expected, which was the largest drop since Q1 2009, and down from the -0.1% posted in Q3. And since this was a second consecutive negative quarter of GDP decline for the Eurozone, the technical recession (double dip? triple dip? is anyone even counting anymore?) in Europe too is now official.

After trending gently higher for the first half of the week, the euro has been sold to new three week lows in response to the disappointing Q4 GDP figures. The GDP figures are of course backward looking and more recent data, such as the PMI figures and German factory orders suggest the regional economy is stabilizing here in early Q1.

There is a middle step to go from the GDP figures to the euro and that is the interest rate channel. There has been some speculation that the passive tightening of the euro area financial conditions (including the shrinking of the ECB's balance sheet) and the strength of the euro would prompt the ECB to cut the refi rate later in Q1. The poor GDP readings bolster such expectations and this can be seen in short-term interest rates. The March Euribor futures contract is now implying 0.24% rate, having matched the lowest rate since Jan 23, or before the early repayment of LTRO I was announced.

This is why before and during almost any major up move in markets traders go to the EUR/USD and USD/JPY funding crosses for the juice to propel the move. It all starts with the juice, that is what determines price in markets. 

In this candid discussion, precious metals experts Eric Sprott, John Embry and Rick Rule discuss a wide range of topics related to precious metals investing.

Six years after the onset of the traumatic US housing crisis, the optics are there that suggest a stabilization is occurring. Whether real or manufactured by record-low foreclosures, bank supply withdrawals, and fed-subsidized cash REO-to-rent trades, the sad truth is that jobs (and the GDP-enhancing multiplier effect that they create) are just not coming. Even Bob Shiller prefers the potential for 4% gains in stocks over housing risk in the medium-term as he points out that - inflation-adjusted - house prices are back at levels first seen in 1894... now that is a long-term investor.

Bottom line? $100 an hour is the minimum wage for a person with a family in NY. The Prez is offering $9.

Tired of getting caught tongue-tied at the polo field bar when someone asks whether Russian Utilities are cheap? Annoyed at the lack of your ability to instantly respond on the richness of British Beverage companies when racing Veyrons in Dubai? Have no fear. UBS, Global Valuation Heat Map provides an at a glance table of the best (and worst) global sectors for your hard-earned local currency to be devalued in.

It appears that not only we are tracking the phaseout in equity inflows, all of which are simply the reversal of the massive $220 billion surge in bank deposits in the month of December due to fears of Fiscal Cliff dividend and capital gains tax increases (explained previously), and which as today's ICI update indicates have trickled down to just $683 million - the lowest weekly inflow year to date. Among the others who are keeping track of the weekly reduction in inbound capital euphoria, in addition to the six companies which priced equity offerings on Monday as was shown previously, are these fine corporations and existing stakeholders, including Apollo, KKR, Carlyle, Blackstone, Thomas H. Lee, and Bain,  who just can't wait to get out while the getting is good, split once again evenly between secondaries and follow ons.

Following on the heels of the dumbing down of the State of the Union speech we noted yesterday, we thought a simple visualization of just how stunningly poor our nation's reading skills really are would be useful. One in five Americans lacks the basic reading skills beyond a 4th grade level - are you one of them?

It’s getting impossible to keep track of all the new spy tools being rolled out by the police state in the name of “fighting terrorism”, aka spying on innocent American citizens unconstitutionally.  I thought that I had my hands full the other day with ARGUS: The World’s Highest Resolution Video Surveillance Platform, but this “Stingray” system is already being deployed illegally in cities throughout the United States.  As the EFF states: “The Stingray is the digital equivalent of the pre-revolutionary British soldier.”

How do you hedge when shots are pips? The next world war will be computerized. The global economy is on the brink and battle lines are forming with one objective, restoring economic balance. Properly engineered devaluation measures would accomplish precisely that. This is a new age of currency wars. In the past countries would directly manipulate the value of their currency with trade wars and the like. But today’s currency war is a result of unconventional monetary policy by central banks, which indirectly impacts the value of a countries currency.

Despite so much pent up hope that Japan would post a 0.4% annualized growth (and a 0.1% rise Q/Q) in its Q4 GDP, finally exiting that pesky triple dip recession it has been stuck in for the past five years, moments ago the Cabinet Office reported that contrary to optimistic expectations, in the 4th quarter the economy again contracted for the third straight quarter, this time by 0.4% annualized, and 0.1% on a Q/Q basis. This was driven by a whopping 14% SAAR implosion in exports, which should not come as a surprise to those who have been tracking the ongoing destruction of Japan's trade balance (and current account surplus). "Japan's economy may show some weakness for the time being. But it is likely to resume a moderate recovery thereafter due to the Bank of Japan's monetary easing, the effect of an emergency economic package, as well as an expected moderate recovery in the global economy," Economics Minister Akira Amari said in a statement. True: there is hope. And there is the reality that all the BOJ is doing is desperately trying to offset the loss of the Chinese export market, which courtesy of the ever escalating foreign relations snafu involving a few islands close to a massive gas field, remains as shut as ever. And as long as China refuses to assist Japan in its trade and current account deficit predicament, Amari can hope, and hope, and hope.

There was a time back in 2009 when GETCO was the absolute titan of the high frequency trading arena, printing money with the reckless abandon of a Federal Reserve on full tilt. It even got its own profile piece in the WSJ in the summer of 2009: "Meet Getco, High-Frequency Trade KingMeet Getco, High-Frequency Trade King." However, the good days were not to last as shortly thereafter we got a flash crash, then we got three + years of Ben Bernanke's (and every other bank's) central planning and some $10 trillion in combined exogenous liquidity to prop up the market, both of which resulted in the complete loss of faith in a standalone stock market by the retail investor (and once the current unwind of the December rotation from stocks into savings accounts over capital gains tax fears ends, the outflows will resume especially as latest ICI data shows with the smallest inflow into domestic equities to date in 2013). And since retail orders no longer would feed the frontrunning, sub-pennying, quote churning, flash crashing juggernaut that is HFT, that meant less revenue and profit for algo master GETCO. How much less? A whopping 82% less in the nine months ended September 30, 2012 compared to a year prior, and 92% less when annualizing 2012 results compared to the firm's heyday in 2008, the year in which it made a record $430 million in net income. Getco's net income as of September 30, 2012: a tiny $25 million.

There are underlying options on the S&P 500 that trade on exchange or OTC (depending on size and strike and margin package - arb or outright). On top of that set of options lies a world of futures and options on a 'created' VIX (that are predicated on the implied vols of the underlying S&P options). And to top it all off - the wonderful world of Exchange Traded Products (ETPs) overlays various levered and unlevered short and long products for retail (and professionals) to speculate on (and some have their own compound options). As you can tell - there is a large amount of 'flow' impacting up and down the chain in this vol landscape.