Archive - Mar 13, 2013

Worried about potential bankruptcy next week, buy the stock. Concerned at slumping top- and bottom-line misses, buy the stock. Regulatory oversight, buy the stock. Over-leveraged, buy the stock. Fortress-like balance sheet, not so much... Since the mid-November lows at the start of this liquidity-fueled rally de luxe, the most-shorted names in the Russell 2000 have risen an impressive 27% - even more impressive is that this is a 1150bps outperformance over the index itself. As we warned a few times, the list of most-shorted stocks is often a place to find epic (and ridiculous) returns but with our macro hats on for one second, if this kind of 'capital' is flooding into these kinds of companies - we can only imagine the landscape of mal-investment that will be exposed if and when the tide ever ebbs even modestly. For now, the dash-for-trash continues - though today is the first 2-day drop in 3 weeks (but still outperforming the not-most-shorted names).

The same warnings flashed in 2008... and they're flashing again now.

Steven Spielberg gave us Pre-Crime; Ben Bernanke gave us Pre-Monetization. Moments ago, as part of today's concluded $1.464 billion market funding POMO operation, one of the issues purchased by the Fed was the 30 year Treasury identified as CUSIP 912810QZ4. Why is this CUSIP interesting? Because at 1 pm tomorrow, the US Treasury will issue $13 billion in the form of a 29 year 11 month bond reopening. The CUSIP of the issue: 912810QZ4. Because the only thing better than monetizing the US debt is, well, pre-monetizing the US debt.

The latest release of the National Federation of Independent Business Small Business Survey was a bit of dichotomy of interpretation. Is the inventory increase really a sign of optimism or is it an unwanted buildup as sales have slowed as shown by the latest wholsesale inventory report?  Are capital outlays really a sign of optimism or is it simply just required maintenance and upkeep?  The interpretation of the data is key to understanding the direction of the overall economy. Economic confidence still remains at levels lower than in 2011 or in 2008 during the depths of the financial crisis. Concerns for businesses remain weighted toward the consumer and the government.  Weak sales, government regulations and taxes are the top 3 biggest headwinds curtailing small business currently.  With the upcoming debates over the debt ceiling and the budget it is unlikely that these concerns are going to improve much anytime soon.

"Clearly, the USDA has made up its mind that Big Sugar is going to trump the American consumer," is how industry exec perceives the news that the government is considerng buying 400,000 tons of sugar, as WSJ reports, to stave off a wave of defaults by sugar processors that borrowed $862 million under a government price-support program. Since these 'loans' were given nine-months ago, sugar prices have plunged 18% - and could leave the government's price-support program with an embarrassing $80 million loss given the additional sugar-to-ethanol purchase losses. Of course, rather than pass on lower prices to a struggling consumer, the government's decision is to avoid a loss for corporations such as American Crystal Sugar Co., Amalgamated Sugar Co. and U.S. Sugar Corp., and, as Sen. Jeanne Shaheen notes "unfairly leaving consumers and businesses on the hook to foot the bill and that is unacceptable." Moar Big Gulps...

I would say that we are in the void; a place where not much matters. The actions of the world’s central bankers have created not only a global financial bubble but a market assumption that everything is backstopped and that nothing can go seriously wrong. Equities rise, bonds compress and everyone plays along. The last time I felt so strongly about this was in the infamous era of “money for nothing, checks for free” just prior to the subprime prick that sent the financial markets into the balloon careening around the room event. It is Ben and Mario’s ice cream store; open twenty-four seven, dessert for breakfast, lunch and dinner and the “full faith and credit” promise that you won’t put on an ounce. It is a world full of “non-conforming loans” and you might wish to remember what happened last time.

There was much chatter by the punditry in the early part of 2013, when the Shanghai Composite appeared relentless in its surge, when it was tracking the S&P virtually tick for tick, hitting a 2013 high in mid-February, and which was "explained" to be the prima facie proof of the Chinese rebound. The reason said chatter has disappeared is that as of last night's close, the SHCOMP is now officially red for the year.

A straight forward explanation of two elements of the options market and what it is suggesting about market positioning and psychology. Sometimes the options market acts as a parallel market to express views. Sometimes it acts as an insurance market. Written with the non-specialist in mind.

In a news release that would have been blamed on delayed tax refunds and "the weather" if it was a miss, but confirms a stronger consumer if it beat, and denies everything Wal Mart was warning about regarding February sales, today's retail sales just came stronger than expected in both the headline print (+1.1%, on expectations of a +0.5% rise), the Ex-Autos (+1.0%, Exp. 0.5%), and the Ex-autos and gas (0.4%, Exp. 0.2%). All of this of course was on a seasonally-adjusted basis (more on this shortly). This was the biggest beat of expectations since October 2011, and the biggest monthly rise in five months. The number was driven by a 5.0% jump in gasoline station sales, a 1.8% increase in Miscellaneous store retailers, a 1.6% rise in non-store retailers and a 1.1% increase in the broad retail and food services category. Declines were noted in Furniture stores (-1.6%), Electronics and Appliance stores (-0.2%), and Sporting goods and music stores (-0.9%). So on the surface all was good. The seasonally adjusted surface. because the unadjusted headline number in February actually posted the first sequential decline since 2010, as retail sales declined from $382.4 billion to $381.0 billion: this was the first sequential decline in retail sales in the month of February in three years. Yet somehow the decline actually translated into a growth of $4.4 billion on an adjusted basis, meaning the entire beat was, once more, purely in the calendar adjustment.

In a preview of an interview he will conduct today with German's Handelsblatt, the surprise winner of last month's Italian elections Beppe Grillo said that Italy is “already de facto” outside the euro and runs the risk of being “dropped” by the region’s wealthiest members as soon as their banks recoup what they invested in the nation’s bonds. His suggestion - the same that got Greece's G-Pap promptle sacked in late 2011 - a popular referendum to decide if Italy should remain in the Eurozone. Grillo's best line, however, was saved for Mario Monti: "he is a bankruptcy trustee on behalf of the banks" which is perhaps the most astute description we have read of the former Goldman operative ever. Still think Grillo is just a simple-minded comic with a penchant for anarchy?

While the media is transfixed with the final figure of floating dead pigs found Shanghai's Huangpu River, which at last check was crossing 6000, a bigger problem has emerged: pig carcasses have now been spotted in a different river, which means that the worst case scenario could be in play. From Shanghai Daily: 'Pig carcasses now found in Hubei river: Around 50 pig carcasses were today discovered in a tributary of the Yangtze River in Yichang City, Hubei Province, China Central Television reported. Some of the bodies were highly decomposed, said the report. The carcasses were spotted floating near Wulong Village. The local government has launched an investigation and dispatched officials to the scene. The news has attracted much public attention as it follows the discovery of thousand of dead pigs in Shanghai's Huangpu River, a branch of the Yangtze. By late yesterday, almost 6,000 pig carcasses had been fished out of the river and an investigation into where they came from is ongoing."

• More black smoke over Vatican: No decision on pope in second day (NBC)
• PBOC Chief Says China Should Be on ‘High Alert’ on Inflation (BBG) - just as predicted last fall
• California Seizes Guns as Owners Lose Right to Keep Arms (BBG)
• U.S. Tax Cheats Picked Off After Adviser Mails It In (BBG)
• In 2012, Samsung spent $401 million advertising its phones in the U.S. to Apple's $333 million (WSJ)
• Coca-Cola probed over mapping in China (FT) - accused of ‘illegally collecting classified information’
• Italy's Bond Sale Meets Tepid Demand (WSJ)
• U.S. Steps Up Alarm Over Cyberattacks (WSJ)
• Mugabe takes on Zimbabwe's Generation X (Reuters)
• Mars Rover Finds Conditions Once May Have Supported Life (BBG)
• Oil demand hit by China refinery outages (FT)
• Big Sugar Is Set for a Sweet Bailout (WSJ) DOA to buy 400,000 tons of sugar to stave off a wave of defaults by sugar processors
• Spectre of stagflation haunts UK (FT)
• As Republicans seek identity, conclave highlights divisions (Reuters)

This is the third day in a row that an attempt to mount an overnight ramp out of the US has fizzled, with first the Nikkei closing down for the second day in a row and snapping a week-long rally, and then the Shanghai Composite following suit with its 5th consecutive drop in a row as the rumblings out of the PBOC on the inflation front get louder and louder, following PBOC governor Zhou's statement that inflation expectations must be stabilized and that great importance must be attached to inflation. Stirring the pot further was SAFE chief Yi Gang who joined the Chinese chorus warning against a currency war, by saying the G20 should avoid competitive currency devaluations. Obviously China is on the edge, and only the US stock market is completely oblivious that the marginal economy may soon force itself to enter outright contraction to offset the G-7 exported hot money keeping China's real estate beyond bubbly. Finally, SocGen released a note last night title "A strong case for easing Korean monetary policy" which confirms that it is only a brief matter of time before the Asian currency war goes thermonuclear. Moving to Europe, it should surprise nobody that the only key data point, Eurozone Industrial Production for January missed badly, printing at -0.4% on expectations of a -0.1% contraction, down from a 0.9% revised print in December as the European recession shows no signs of abating. So while the rest of the world did bad or worse than expected for the third day in a row, it will be up to the POMO and seasonally adjusted retail sales data in the US to offset the ongoing global contraction, and to send the perfectly manipulated Dow Jones to yet another all time high, in direct refutation of logic and every previous market reality ever.

A 2-minute read on developments in the global capital markets. Equity markets are heavy, bonds little changed as is the dollar. Sterling is the big winner on short covering and bottom picking.