Archive - Mar 2013
March 29th
"I Went To Sleep Friday A Rich Man, I Woke Up Poor"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/29/2013 15:02 -0500
Another non-Russian, non-oligarch, non-billionaire, non-tax evader speaks up...
ECB Backs Dijsselbloem's Liquidation Policy "Template"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/29/2013 14:06 -0500
It appears the European Central Bank is having trouble keeping its lies straight. When Jeroen Dijsselbloem ("Diesel-BOOM", "D-Boom", or just "Diesel") made his now infamous "template" comment last week, reality was shattered for many trend-following, momentum-monkey, hope-and-dreamers that actual real monetary pain could exist for a bank that was entirely incompetent (and insolvent). Instantly the rest of Europe stepped up to deny-deny-deny (as did D-Boom himself) explaining this was a 'unique' situation with French ECB Director Benoît Coeuré explicitly stating that Cyprus is not a model for future bank rescues. However, as Reuters reports, it appears fellow-Dutchman and ECB Governing Council member Klaas Knot said last night that there was "little wrong" with J-Boom's comment and that "the content of his remarks comes down to an approach which has been on the table for a longer time in Europe. This approach will be part of the European liquidation policy." Further confirming D-Boom's perspective, Knot added that, "there has to be transparency about losses in the banking sector... and banks have to wind down their loss-making operations." It seems that in 2012 the ECB split was between the Germans and Draghi on unlimited inflation threats; in 2013 it will be between those who want bail-ins and bail-outs.
Toys"R"Us Withdraws IPO After Dismal Earnings
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/29/2013 13:34 -0500
It seems equity markets at all-time highs, high-yield funding markets near all-time low yields, and supposed money on the sidelines flooding back into stocks are just not enough to provide cover for the latest IPO:
*TOYS R US FILES TO WITHDRAW IPO :TOYS US
Not citing any specific reasons for the withdrawal, we suspect the weather and market conditions will be blamed as they just reported abysmal earnings of $239mm vs $343mm last year and sales down $155mm from last year (with Q4 comp sales -4.5% domestically and 5.4% international). Back to the drawing board for KKR and Bain to push this off to the next greater fool.
Guest Post: 3 Types of Contagion And What They Mean For The Global Economy
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/29/2013 13:17 -0500
In one of a few early hints that Europe might surprise the world with its Cyprus bailout, on February 10th the Financial Times leaked the content of a secret EU memo. It reported that bank depositor haircuts were among three options being considered to reduce bailout costs. And the memo also warned ominously that “such drastic action could restart contagion in eurozone financial markets.” Clearly, policymakers decided to take their chances. And now we’re living through the contagion that the memo’s authors predicted. But what exactly does that mean? Sure, we can see volatility in asset prices, but how long will it last? Some pundits say it’ll blow over like a late afternoon shower on an otherwise sunny day. I disagree. I’ll suggest there’s more to it than rising market volatility and that we should take a closer look at the meaning of contagion. I’ll argue there are three different types at work today: vanilla contagion, latent contagion and stealth contagion. And when you add up the three effects, Cyprus will have a bigger global impact than many expect.
The Week That Was: March 23-29th 2013
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/29/2013 12:33 -0500
Succinctly summarizing the positive and negative news, data, and market events of the week...
Oooops...
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/29/2013 11:48 -0500After reading this memo from the Central Bank of Cyprus sent to bank CEOs on February 11, arguably to put them at ease, all we can say is "Oooops"...
Wall-Street Craziness Is Back
Submitted by testosteronepit on 03/29/2013 11:46 -0500Synthetic securities based on putrid shipping loans
Why European Monetary Policy Is Now Impotent
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/29/2013 11:03 -0500
For the last year or so, Mario Draghi (the omnipotent head of the ECB) has discussed 'market fragmentation' as a major concern. The reason is clear - his easy money policies are entirely ineffectual in a monetary union when his actions do not 'leak' out to the real economy. Nowhere is this fragmentation more obvious than in the inexorable rise in peripheral lending rates (to small business) compared to the drop (over the last 18 months) in the core. Simply put, whether it is demand (balance sheet recessionary debt minimization) or supply (banks hoarding for safety), whatever the punch ladeled from the ECB's bowl, it is not helping the most needy economies. Of course, that was never really the point anyway - as we have pointed out many times; the actions of the ECB are (just as with the Fed) to enable the banking system to live long enough to somehow emerge from the black hole of loan losses and portfolio destruction that they heaped upon themselves. This chart is yet another example of proof that monetary policy is entirely ineffectual in the new normal - and yet the central planners push for moar...
ACTa EST FaBuLa...
Submitted by williambanzai7 on 03/29/2013 11:01 -0500Meet The Last Schtuppers...
No Significant Capital Flows Into Gold From So Called ‘PIIGS’ ... Yet
Submitted by GoldCore on 03/29/2013 09:53 -0500Gold rose 1.1% in March, its first monthly rise in six.
For the quarter, gold was 4.5% lower in dollar terms and 1.4% lower in euros. However, signalling that the demise of gold is greatly exaggerated, gold is 3.7% higher in Japanese yen and 2.6% higher in sterling.
As one astute financial journalist said to me “ ‘cash in the bank’ doesn’t have quite the same ring to it anymore.”
Guest Post: Why Mr. Dijsselbloem Is Right And Cyprus Is A Template For The Eurozone
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/29/2013 09:48 -0500
Far from being a unique situation, the fragile exposure of unsecured depositors across the Euro zone is the norm; and their fragility was further increased in the last twelve months thanks to policies created by the same authorities who now refuse to honor their promise of a banking union, and instead impose capital controls, which have effectively destroyed any credibility on the safety of capital in the Euro zone. However, even if one accepts my view, the unintended outcome begs the following question: Why was there cheap money available for subordinated debt holders to cash out, but there is none now to protect the savings of depositors?
US Savings Rate Near Record Low, Per Capita Disposable Income Almost Back To December 2006 Level
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/29/2013 08:33 -0500For those claiming there is something called a "recovery" underway, perhaps they can point out just where on this chart of Real Disposable Income per capita one can find said recovery. Because we are confused: with the average Real Disposable Income of $32,663 per person, or lower than where it was in December 2006 ($32,729), one may be excused for scratching their head.
Caught In The Cyprus Crossfire: Small Businesses Suddenly With Zero Cash
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/29/2013 07:11 -0500One of the prevailing false conventional wisdoms about the Cypriot cash confiscation is that it primarily affected rich, tax-evading individuals of Russian origin. Alas, those same individuals are likely to have been least affected, as subsequent discoveries of capital control breaches by the "richest and best connected" reveal, while increasingly it appears that the uninsured depositors on whose back the nation of Cyprus was bailed out are small and medium corporations, who had been parking cash for net working capital purposes with Cyprus' banks, cash which is now gone forever to feed the creeping insolvent Euro-monster, and which can't be used to fund such day to day business activities as payroll, purchases, and business operations. Such as this one.
Senior SAC Trader Arrested, Given Perp Walk
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/29/2013 06:26 -0500Hopefully the $155 million purchase of Picasso's "Le Reve" by Steve Cohen coupled with his splurge on a $60 million East Hamptons pad comes with a 30 full day money back guarantee, because very soon he may have more practical and immediate uses for the money. If the SAC head was hoping that the recent $602 million settlement his firm had reached with the SEC was enough to put all his troubles behind him, he may want to think twice. First, yesterday, New York District Judge Victor Marrero pulled a "Judge Rakoff", when he balked at the SEC’s use of the “neither admit nor deny” provision (the same argument used by Rakoff when he rejected an SEC settlement with Citigroup in 2011). Marrero also asked what would happen if Martoma, who has pleaded not guilty to related criminal charges, is convicted. “How would it look if in the settlement before it, the parties were allowed to say ‘We did nothing wrong?’” Marrero asked. “The ground is shaking, let’s admit that,” said Marrero. “This court is in the same position that Judge Rakoff was some months ago." But in the end we are sure that Marrero, just like Rakoff, will fold to pressure, and money. However, where things got interesting is that moments ago the Feds arrested long-time SAC suspect and PM Michael Steinberg, giving him a perp walk out of his Park Avenue apartment. This was the highest profile arrest so of any SAC employee and means that while the SEC may be trying to close the book on Cohen, the Feds are only now getting started.
March 28th
Russia Is Next In Line To Restrict Cash Transactions
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/28/2013 20:42 -0500
The Russians are taking a page from the Europeans book (and not a positive one for libertarians). Given the substantial criminal activity and illegal entrepreneurship in Russia - the grey and black economies account for 50–65 percent of GDP and estimates that about $50 billion was taken out of Russia illegally in 2012 alone - the great and glorious leaders have decided to impose restrictions on cash transactions. As Russia Beyond The Headlines reports, Russia may ban cash payments for purchases of more than 300,000 rubles (around $10,000) starting in 2015 - starting with a higher ($19,500) restriction in 2014. They will also enforce mandatory cash-free salary payments (cash compensation accounts for 15% of GDP currently) in an effort to both bring some of the population's 'grey' income out of the shadow; and increase the volume of cash reserves in the banks. It would appear that wherever we look now, leadership are realizing that the limits of fiscal and monetary policy have been reached and now changing rules, limiting freedom, and outright confiscation are the only way to maintain a status quo. Ironic really, when the enforcement of said rules may just be the catalyst for the end of the status quo as the middle class suffers.







