Archive - Mar 2013

Is it possible for burned Cyprus depositors to file a suit against the Troika or the US Navy? Why not?

The security firm that became infamous for its Olympics snafu is responsible for the 'safety' of Cypriot banks and their money as they prepare to open tomorrow. G4S is the world's largest security-provider, and has been helping banks in the last week by sending out teams (with police protection) to restock ATMs. However, an additional 180 staff have been hired to, "be based outside branches... to control queues," adding (rather optimistically), "if there are any queues." It seems the extra security is, "basically it is to make the banking people feel safe and the customers as well." As ekathimerini reports, while the banks have been closed, businesses have been calling on the security company to find places to keep their cash and asking for guards and alarms to protect their assets. They are also using G4S as an intermediary to bring money from overseas to pay wages and suppliers, and drawing on its systems for shipping cash to provide guarantees for payments abroad, effectively using it as a kind of bank. G4S local boss added, "people have had time to digest the agreement so maybe there won’t be that scenario whereby people run to the banks to withdraw." Oh we are sure...

At least Chinese retirement funds don't have to worry about a cash outflow crunch any time soon. Tangentially, perhaps BlackRock can create a 3x levered ETF tracking the profitability of Chinese fake birth certificate and driver license fabricators?

When the ECB first announced the LTRO in late 2011 (and executed in early 2012) we explained how the ECB's encumbrance via this 'aid' is in fact a major negative for the rest of the capital structure. We were proved correct and even as Draghi lied and stated there was no stigma, the market priced the LTRO-encumbered banks notably weaker. Of course, the banks with the greatest need for support were the ones who grabbed the ECB's punchbowl that time and it seems as fears re-awaken in Europe, risk-appetite towards these ECB-dependent banks (relative to non-LTRO banks) is waning rapidly. The so-called LTRO Stigma (the spread between LTRO and non-LTRO bank credit) is back at 5-month wides as investors rotate away from any and every bank outside of the core. This weakness rubbed off everywhere in Europe as Italian and Spanish bonds saw their worst day since the Italian elections as European stocks slumped and Europe's VIX is now 4.5vols higher than Monday's open.

BANZAI7 BEVERAGE WARNING IN EFFECT

With the 'temporary' capital controls being imposed in Cyprus, Credit Suisse explains why a Cypriot euro not equal to a euro from any other member country. Furthermore, the clear fabrication of a 'seven-day' period for these controls (when monthly and quarterly limits on spending are also included) is questioned as they ask how such capital controls could eventually be lifted with no obvious cure of the underlying problem, i.e., the risk of a bank run. Since every guarantee is only worth as much as its guarantor, we would expect that in absence of a European wide deposit guarantee (which for political reasons and the aforementioned template look very unlikely) these capital controls are likely to stay for longer than originally planned. Unless this vicious circle is broken, this attempt to save the euro could ironically even become the template of how a member state could leave the currency union.

Back in December 2011, Europe swooned and bond yields soared when it was shocked, shocked, to learn that Spain had been lying about its budget deficit all year, a number which was subsequently hiked several more times. Then in 2012, to keep up with the pretense that things are better, Spain once again did what it does best: fudged numbers, this time desperate to make it appear that its actual government deficit was better than expected because one had to 'obviously' exclude all those items that are not part of the government spending... like payments for its broke provinces, or indirect funding for its broke banks. Now it turns out that in addition to fudging the definition of "budget", Spain was, surprise surprise, lying once again. From Bloomberg: "The Spanish government said its 2012 budget deficit will be bigger than first estimated after the European Union requested changes in how tax claims are computed. The budget shortfall excluding aid to the banking sector was 6.98 percent of gross domestic product last year, more than the 6.74 percent predicted on Feb. 28, Deputy Budget Minister Marta Fernandez Curras told reporters in Madrid today. That compares with 8.96 percent in 2011."

If we shed our fixation with the Fed and look at global supply and demand, we get a clearer understanding of the tailwinds driving the U.S. dollar higher. I know this is as welcome in many circles as a flashbang tossed on the table in a swank dinner party, but the U.S. dollar is going a lot higher over the next few years. In a very real sense, every currency is a claim not on the issuing central bank's balance sheet but on the entire economy of the issuing nation. All this leads to two powerful tailwinds to the value of the dollar. One is simply supply and demand: as the global economy slides into recession, trade volumes decline, and the U.S. deficit shrinks. (It's already $250 billion less than was "exported" in 2006.) That will leave fewer dollars available on the global market. The second tailwind is the demand for dollars from those exiting the euro and yen. The abandonment of the euro is already visible in these charts.

... Comes from Goldman's soon to be ex-tentacle in Italy, who took over, unelected, for Berlusconi when the ECB made it clear it was the Bunga way or the no SMP way.

• ITALY'S MONTI SAYS HE CAN'T WAIT TO LEAVE OFFICE

So, one's enthusiasm for one's job wanes when one actually has to be voted in and can only muster at best about 10% of the popular vote? Unpossible.

That said, we are confident Italy feels the same way as the soon to be defunct half of Europe's Goldman Super Mario Brothers..

Elsewhere, the man who won the Italian election, comedian Beppe Grillo, called Bersani and Berlusconi, "whoremongering fathers." And scene

The big news out of Europe is whether or not Cyprus will be a template for future bailouts. Having seen that issues like personal property, rule of law, and democracy got thrown out of the window in Cyprus as soon as things got hairy, investors and depositors throughout Europe are panicked as to whether they will be targeted next when the next European Domino starts to fall.

As of now, the banks are still expected to open tomorrow; some of the details of the capital controls to be put in place have been leaked (via Phileleftheros):

• *CYPRUS CONTROLS APPLY TO ALL ACCOUNTS, CURRENCIES
• *CYPRUS BANK CONTROLS INCLUDE CURBS ON CASHING CHECKS
• *CYPRUS BANK CONTROLS TO BE IN FORCE FOR 7 DAYS
• *CYPRUS CURBS INCLUDE BAN ON ENDING TIME DEPOSITS
• *CYPRUS CURBS TO INCLUDE PAYMENTS ABROAD

So no outflows allowed to a foreign country (cough Russia cough) and for only 7 days (Pluto Standard Time?); furthermore, talk is that carrying cash of over EUR3,000 across the border wil be banned.

"We were alone... It’s clear that Germany wants to impose its views on the peoples of southern Europe, which need her at the moment. The toughest decision was that for Cyprus: it was a ruthless decision to wreck the country’s economic system, which will have huge and unpleasant consequences.”

In the seven days since Slovenia's new government has been in power, their 10Y bond has seen its yield explode over 120bps as the investing world searches for the next 'Cyprus'-like land-mine. Of course, the Slovenian leaders are proudly denying it all, "Slovenia won't need aid, we can do this on our own," but with the nation needing EUR3 billion in bailout funding and the previous government proposing a 'bad-bank' style breakup, one can only imagine the capital outflows that are viciously circling this nation's financial system (given the relative size of their large 'uninsured' depositor base as shown here - SI). How will they solve the problem? By tapping international bond markets of course, "depending on market sentiment."

A brief note on what to look for in the capital controls Cyprus will soon announce. The purpose is not to pass judgment on the merits of capital controls, but to discuss the implication.

Greece has re-entered a bear market. Its stock market, after seven months of exuberance has dropped 20% in the last month. Greek government bonds are also in trouble as the no-brainer trade is now at three-month lows (with its price also down 20% from just a week ago). It would seem that 60% youth unemploymet may actually mean something once again...