Archive - Apr 10, 2013

The fastest growing part of the median household income for nearly a quarter of a century has been transfer payments.  The state has stepped in to fill the gap left by the breakdown of the previous social conract.  The new efforts to renegotiate the basket of goods citizens receive is likely to antagonize employee and employer relationships.  

While the Fed's spoksperson has reassured us that none of the 100 or so people who received the somewhat hawkish Fed minutes prematurely (right-time, wrong date) yesterday traded on that information, coincidental trading behavior appears to tell a different story. The inexorable rise seemed to halt almost instantly as the Minutes were released and read by humans this time driving the S&P down 6 points into the close...

Curious why every bank and their grandmother, and most recently Goldman today, has been lining up to push the price of gold as low as possible? Here's why:

• CYPRUS TO SELL 400 MLN EUROS WORTH OF GOLD RESERVES TO FINANCE PART OF ITS BAILOUT - TROIKA DOCUMENTS - RTRS
  

Or about 10 tons of gold. But... the bailout was prefunded and there was no need to provide any additional cash? What happened: was the deposit outflow discovered to have been even greater than the worst case scenario and thus Cyprus needed even more cash? As for the buyers? We will venture a guess: central banks buying at the lows.

Finally: congratulations Cypriots. You are now handing over your gold for the one time, unbeatable opportunity to remain a vassal state to the Eurozone. But at least you have your €.

With Bitcoins changing digital hands for over $260 this morning, having doubled in a week (and exponentially risen in weeks), many have asked how to 'trade' or 'short' this virtual currency. Well, perhaps the answer is here. As TechCrunch notes, Coinsetter - a NY-based startup looking to launch a trading platform for Bitcoin has raised $500,000 in seed capital. The platform will allow leverage (via margin) and the ability to short the market. We can only imagine the hour-by-hour margin changes. Furthermore, Coinsetter intends to offer accredited investors (because wealth equals smarts, right) the ability to earn interest on Bitcoins. To put his money where his mouth is, Lukasiewicz, a former JPM investment banker, has said that he will "put up at least $50,000 of his own money towards the platform's initial margin reserves." Forget NFLX; Ignore FNM; day-trading Bitcoin with leverage is the new normal. What's the opposite of catching a falling knife?

Tilted to the victors and...

Soros’ yen “avalanche” would appear to have begun with the yen having fallen by 9.5% against gold in 5 trading days since last Thursday leading to record nominal highs in the yen at over 0.1577 million yen per ounce this morning.

The higher gold prices have led to a curious anomaly in Japan where the public has again been selling gold in cash for gold schemes, often due to being under financial pressure, while some Japanese investors and savers have diversified into gold coins and bars both of which have seen an increase in demand in recent days.

Concerned the Fed believes in an Animal Farm market, where those who can legally trade on inside information are more equal than others? Don't be: The Fed's Inspector General is on the case...

The @federalreserve's inspector general is conducting an initial investigation #EarlyFedMinutes

— Annalyn Kurtz (@AnnalynKurtz) April 10, 2013

A @federalreserve spokesman tells me, the Fed accidentally emailed its March minutes to roughly 100 people yesterday, shortly after 2 p.m.

— Annalyn Kurtz (@AnnalynKurtz) April 10, 2013

The S&P 500 has passed its 10/11/07 high of 1576.09, by a penny (for now)...

For the fourth day in a row, Japanese bond futures markets were halted due to significant (and rapid) price movements. Three of the four halts have been on downside shifts (with the upside surge driven by the BoJ's first attempt at monetization). The daily ranges in longer-dated JGBs are incredible and certainly the last word one would use to describe the quadrillion Yen Japanese bond market since the BoJ's announcement is 'orderly'. As Kyle Bass noted, the volatility in JGBs will be the gauge of the market's qualitative perception that Abenomics can succeed; for now it appears, with longer-dated JGB yields at pre-BoJ levels, having exploded 30-40bps off the lows, and short-dated JGB yields soaring to 11-month highs, things look a little out of control.

Today any lingering doubts that the market is a complete and manipulated farce were put to rest following the epic embarassment that was the early release of FOMC minutes due to what Steve Liesman announced was a leak of the March minutes yesterday to a hundred or so staffers and various lobby organizations, which means the minutes promplty became public knowledge to anyone and everyone connected to Washington, such as all hedge funds, banks, and other financial firms. Everyone, except of course, the general public. Which is why we politely petition the Fed to add us and all of ours readers to the early distribution list for the Minutes and all other releases that are leaked in advance of distribution to the general public. Since we have all given up on any pretense of a "fair and efficient" market, it is only "fair" (at least until such time that Chairman Bernanke decides to finally start throwing €500 and ¥100,000,000,000,000  bills out of helicopters).

We urge readers to make liberal use of the Fed's contact page and request "fair" and equal treatment with those who in the eyes of the Fed are more equal than all others.

Highlights from the pre-leaked minutes, which are along the lines of previous releases, in which there is a hint of an early QE tapering and halt by year end. Here is the key excerpt:

In light of the current review of benefits and costs, one member judged that the pace of purchases should ideally be slowed immediately. A few members felt that the risks and costs of purchases, along with the improved outlook since last fall, would likely make a reduction in the pace of purchases appropriate around midyear, with purchases ending later this year. Several others thought that if the outlook for labor market conditions improved as anticipated, it would probably be appropriate to slow purchases later in the year and to stop them by year-end. Two members indicated that purchases might well continue at the current pace at least through the end of the year.

Algos unsure if this means QE may be ending. The answer, of course, is no. But the Fed is doing everything to gauge market impact to increasingly more ominous and harsh language.

This shocker just hit the tape:

• FED TO RELEASE FOMC MINUTES AT 9 A.M. VS SCHEDULED 2 P.M.
• FED: MINUTES MISTAKENLY SENT EARLY TO CONGRESS, TRADE GROUPS

So the Fed now pre-releases data to US politicians ahead of everyone else. What else does the Fed leak to those for whom frontrunning is still legal? And as if we needed more confirmation, the market is now officially a complete circus.

Ever since Cyprus hit the headlines, Slovenia has been close behind. Another small European nation with a banking system that dwarfs its GDP (though not on the scale of Cyprus). However, as we noted previously, it is not the size that matters, it is the precedent. The European leadership are desperate for the 'template' used in Cyprus - of haircutting all the way through the capital structure - not be used in Slovenia for fear the real world will see through their jawboning facade. Chatter continues that Slovenia can get out of this on their own - in some magical government-guaranteed reacharound - but, just as in Cyprus (where Non-Performing MLoans reaching 30-40% was the trigger for their avalanche), so Slovenia is there now. While the 'average' is around 14% NPLs, the large state-controlled banks had over 30% NPLs at the end of 2012. The need for in excess of EUR1bn in recapitalization alone - though stress test results have been kept secret - and as the FT's op-ed notes, in order to appease global investors' fear that lessons have not been learned, government money (read taxpayer) should not be the first option, creditors should be bailed-in. With Slovenia CDS stuck at six-month wides, it appears the market remains far more nervous either way.

Moments ago BOJ's Kuroda hit the tape with remarks that did not make algos very happy:

• KURODA SAYS BOJ HAS DONE WHAT'S NECESSARY AND POSSIBLE FOR NOW

and yet:

• BOJ'S KURODA PLEDGES ALL NECESSARY STEPS FOR 2% INFLATION
• KURODA SAYS MONETARY POLICY NOT AIMED AT AFFECTING YEN RATE

Algos appear confused: will the BOJ do more to hit the 2% inflation target, or, as the first bullet suggests, is it tapped out? For now, they shoot first and ask questions later, sending the S&P500 carrying USDJPY lower by 60 pips in a matter of milliseconds.