Archive - Apr 15, 2013

A bad day all around. Liquidation continued from Asia and commodities were Baumgartner'd - especially gold and silver, suffering their biggest single-day drop in 30 years. Weak NAHB data stalled any BTFD in stocks and despite a couple of tries at EUR ramps, stocks had their biggest drop in 5 months. The horrible acts in Boston seemed a catalyst for late-day weakness in stocks but there was no bid and heavy volume as homebuilders were hit their hardest in 10 months and US equity indices plunged into the close. Dow Transports had its worst day in 17 months. Away from stocks, FX markets were just as volatile with JPY's 2-day rally the biggest in 35 months (and AUD the biggest down day in 5 months). Swiss 2Y rates dropped to their lowest of the year and US Treasuries were relatively calm (though bid) until Boston hit and then dropped 3-4bps on the day. VIX also surged higher by 5.2 vols to 17.25% (its highest since the Italian elections).

North Korea's daily war bluffs may be (rightfully) ignored by the market, but an unexpected and tragic development comes out of Boston, where local media reports of two explosions and numerous injuries:

AT LEAST 12 INJURED IN BOSTON MARATHON BLAST: BOSTON HERALD
BOSTON BLAST SEEM CENTERED IN `TRASH CAN': BOSTON HERALD
CNN CITES SOURCE ON REPORTS OF DEVICE AT BOSTON MANDARIN HOTEL
AT LEAST 3 DEAD AT BOSTON MARATHON, FOX NEWS CITES SOURCE
BOSTON POLICE SAY "SECONDARY DEVICES" ARE STILL BEING FOUND

For the past three years we have been pounding the table on one very simple fact: when it comes to jobs, there is a quantitative picture, which is often muddied by seasonal adjustments and political narrative but which the mainstream loves for the simply, clear plotline: "the US created [   ] jobs in the past month", and there is a qualitative one: one which takes into account the far more important quality of the jobs created in the US economy in whole or in part (such as in various states). It appears this simple logic has finally trickled down to those masters of the obvious at the San Fran Fed who have just released a paper titled "Job Growth and Economic Growth in California" whose summary is as follows: "California job growth over the past two decades has been relatively anemic compared with gains in the rest of the country. Nevertheless, economic output has grown faster in California than in the rest of the United States. One factor underlying this pattern may be the growth of higher-wage jobs in California, which has contributed more to output than to employment growth. This creates relatively few opportunities for low-skilled workers, which may help explain why poverty increased more in California than in most states over the period."

While there are obviously sellers in the gold market, there is also a dramatic spike in demand for protecting what is still being held (remember there is a buyer for every seller). Gold's short-term VIX (implied volatility) has spiked to 18 month highs above 29% but it is the steepness of the term-structure of volatility that shows just how much protection is being sought. The difference between the one-month volatility and one-year volatility is almost 10 vols - the highest level of inversion (short-term risk higher than long-term) since Lehman. It seems the market is extremely fearful of further volatility in the short-term but less concerned longer-term. What is also worrisome is that the last two times that Gold's VIX was this much higher than the S&P's VIX was June 2006 (when the first hedge funds started to implode from Subprime) and Sept 2008 (Lehman). It appears that gold volatility is signalling counterparty risk concerns once again.

The problem with cutting the links between risk and consequence and the real economy and the stock market is that a market deprived of feedback from reality is prone to disorderly disruption. Why is this so? Participants make decisions based on the information made available to them. If the information from the real world is suppressed or limited, then the decisions made by participants will necessarily be misinformed, i.e. wrong.  If feedback from the real world is suppressed, then decisions will necessarily be bad. The only choice for participants who have lost faith in central planning's promise of permanently higher markets will be to abandon the manipulated markets entirely.

A Roundup of Opinions

As Europe jerks from one political debacle to another, the French (mired in the PR disaster of Cahuzac - a tax tzar guilty of tax fraud) have decided forced honesty is the only policy left if they are ever to regain any credibility. From the Commission for Financial Transparacency, below is the full list of all French ministers assets - from cars and property to stocks and bonds.

Record Dow, record S&P, record debt, record plunge in gold, and now: record US households on foodstamps. What's not to like. While today's gold selloff may be confusing to everyone, one can scratch off some 23,087,886 US households, or the number that according to the USDA were on foodstamps in January and just happen to be a fresh all time high, as the likely sellers, especially when one considers that the average monthly benefit to each household dropped to a record low of $274.04. This number probably ignores, for good reason, the once every four years fringe benefits of Obamaphones and other such made in China trinkets.

Until the moment she actually sinks, the Titanic is unsinkable.--Julia Hughes

The rapidity of gold's drop is impressive, concerning, and disorderly. We have seen two other such instances of disorderly 'hurried' selling in the last five years. In July 2008, gold quickly dropped 21% - seemingly pre-empting the Lehman debacle and the collapse of the western banking system. In September 2011, gold fell 20% in a short period - as Europe's risks exploded and stocks slumped prompting a globally co-ordinated central bank intervention the likes of which we have not seen before. Given the almost-record-breaking drop in gold in the last few days, we wonder what is coming?

If this article, in particular its conclusion, doesn't go viral throghout the EU, then the European media, analyst and regulatory community has #FAIED! its denizens!

According to Central Banker thinking, if something doesn’t work for 20 years the only answer is to do even more of it. So the Bank of Japan attempted a “shock and awe” move with an unprecedented QE equal to $1.2 trillion. Japanese bonds, already strained as investments by the demographic and economic issues plaguing Japan, have since become extremely volatil

Previously, levered hedge funds were forced to sell gold on stock margin calls. How long until today's gold plunge, the largest 2-day drop in the past 30 years, forces funds to start selling stocks to meet margin clerks vocal demands some time around 2pm today?