Archive - Apr 30, 2013

And there it is. Moments ago Bloomberg disclosed the final terms of the just launched Goldman-led syndication of AAPL paper. The total size: $17 billion, which surpasses the previous record set by Roche at $16.5 billion, and makes it the biggest corporate bond synidcation in history. The breakdown:

• $1B 3Y FRN LAUNCH AT 3ML + 5 BPS
• $1.5B 3Y FIXED NOTES LAUNCH AT + 20 BPS
• $2B 5Y FRN LAUNCH AT 3ML+25 BPS
• $4B 5Y FIXED NOTES LAUNCH AT + 40 BPS
• $5.5B 10Y FIXED NOTES LAUNCH AT +75 BPS
• $3B 30Y DEBT LAUNCHES AT +100 BPS

30 Year paper in a tech company whose market cap has fluctuated by roughly $500 billion in the past year, and yielding just under 4%?

Sold to you.

Three years after Congress first told the SEC that it required public companies to uncloak the details of their CEO compensation relative to his lowly employees; the ever-ready SEC has yet to implement any rules. However, in an effort to ease the tough job that the SEC has, Bloomberg has calculated ratios for the Top 250 companies in the S&P 500, based on industry-specific averages for pay and benefits for the rank-and-file (since companies don't disclose median worker pay). The table below, of the top 50 companies (meaning highest CEO pay relative to workers), suggests it remains good to be king (and Ron Johnson just made another #1 Spot earning an estimated 1,795x the average JCP employee - money well spent...).

When it comes to the US housing market there appear to be three groups of people: those who who have either unlimited cash and/or access to credit, and like the most rabid of bubble-chasing speculators, are perfectly happy to engage in a game of Flip That House for a short-term profit pending the discovery of a greater fool (often times converting the house into rental properties as numerous hedge funds have been doing on cost-free basis courtesy of the government's REO-To-Rent program) - they are the vast minority of speculators; then there are those who currently rent and are opportunistically looking at home prices, willing to dip their toe at the right price - these too are few and far between and mostly represent a function of the natural growth of the US household offset by the availability of jobs; and then there is everyone else. Sadly, it is the "everyone else" that is the vast majority of the US population. It is this "everyone else" who comprises the bulk of those who have been kicked out of the American Dream, whose core pillar has always been owning your own home (with or without a massive mortgage attached), not renting. As the US Census Bureau reported earlier today, the US homeownership rates in the first quarter of 2013 dropped by another 0.4% to a fresh 18 years low, or 65% - the lowest since 1995!

The Baltic States are unique in Europe in that they went through an austerity crash program a while ago already (beginning right after the 2008 crisis) and have in the meantime recovered strongly. Der Spiegel has an interesting interview with Lithuanian president Dalia Grybauskaite, in which she explains her views on the topic. It can obviously be done successfully. And while we are aware that every case is unique - the problems are not the same in every country, and due to cultural norms and traditions, it may be easier to enact reform in certain countries than others; it seems that no matter how many times Paul Krugman insists that no Baltic nation can possibly be held up as an example, the fact remains that they have imposed fiscal austerity and implemented wide-ranging reform measures and have succeeded.

As was announced earlier today, the Cypriot parliament was set to vote on the country's deposit confiscatory bail in, a vote that was largely expected to pass. Moments ago it did.

• CYPRUS LAWMAKERS APPROVE BAILOUT IN PARLIAMENTARY VOTE WITH 29 VOTES IN FAVOR, 27 AGAINST
  

And with that, the resulting depression that is about to be unleashed in Cyprus is nobody else's fault but of the country itself, its politicians and ultimately, its people. So dear Cyprus, you may have a 20% GDP drop every year for the foreseeable future and triple digit unemployment, but at least you will have the EUR and your Stockholm Serf Syndrome.

How it actually works and the end of Mr Bombhead...

Market is in desperate need of horrible Chicago PMI miss

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 30, 2013

While many will shrug at yet another "fat finger", we thought it useful to 'know' - as opposed to 'guess' - what really drove a more-than-10% flash-crash in Symantec stock this morning. As Nanex illustrates so clearly, in less than a second, over 500,000 shares were traded in a waterfall across 13 exchanges (and who knows how many dark pools). This triggered a circuit breaker which halted the stock trading for 5 minutes and when it resumed... it had recovered all those losses. We await news of the Johnny 5s' trades being disqualified as this was simply not a fat finger. Just another day in our efficient and highly liquid stock markets...

A Jackson Hole meeting without the Fed Chairman is like having a performance of Hamlet without Hamlet himself in it. Why would the single most important Central Banker not attend one of the biggest economic meetings of the year?

Italy's new government may have the briefest of honeymoons. Here is a dispassionate analysis of the key political and economic issues.

All we can say is that we are very delighted that an imaginary character from a fictitious narrative is not Ben Bernanke's worst nightmare. The truth is that he has much more real things to worry about.

The President will take questions from the White House reporters at 1015ET. Will he mention the equity market at all-time highs? The strength of the housing market? The 'rising' unemployment rate? The 'falling' macro economy?

Total collapse. That is the only way to explain what just happened with the Chicago PMI which imploded from 52.4, and printed at a contractionary 49: the first sub-50 headline print since September 2009. But that's not all: Deliveries, Prices Paid and Production all hit their lowest since 2009; Backlogs posted their tenth month of contraction in the past 12 months. And what's worst for the Department of Making Shit Up, Employment plunged from 551. to 48.7, its third month over month decline. Actually another way to phrase it: complete disaster. Obviously this number explains why S&P should have no problems crossing 1,600 today. Because for that other Department: of Propaganda and Creating money out of thin air, this means only one thing: the Fed is preparing to print ONE KROOGOL MORE!

When the largest currency cross in the world spikes 70 pips on no news and starts trading like a penny stock, you know that beneath the calm surface of all-time high nominal stock prices, something is brewing... Of course, as we tweeted earlier, there is another reason for the ramp...

It's momentum ignition time. Who goes first EURUSD or USDJPY?

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 30, 2013

Retail needs to see S&P 500 at 1600... and in the face of macro data and micro earnings, there's only one way that is going to happen.

If there is one admirable thing about the Case Shiller Home Price Index report (which sadly shows data for February so a nearly three month delay) is that even according to its authors, it is the Non-Seasonally Adjusted number that is representative of what is going on in housing. And, as the chart below shows, very little is going on as the broader price level continues to undulate in a very tight range with little real moves to the up or downside.