Archive - Apr 2013

Curious why the USDJPY is in freefall after hours? Thank Jack Lew, and the after the close release of the semi-annual "Report to Congress on International Economic and Exchange Rate Policies." Traditionally the place where many have looked to see if the US would declare China a currency manipulator (which will never happen for obvious reasons), this time there was a big Easter egg lying in wait for those who did a word search for "competitive devaluation" - namely that it was located in the section discussing Japan.

Gold was Bitcoin'd (or Baumgartner'd) as it suffered its biggest daily drop since LTRO2 on 2/29/12. The JPY rallied over 1% - its biggest rise in 7 weeks. 10Y Treasuries had their best day in 7 weeks. Macro data was absymal. But it was evident that the only thing mattered was a new high close for the Dow - as we noted 10 minutes before the close:

EURUSD must ramp over 1.31 for green DJIA

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 12, 2013

And thanks to some help from the old ramp standbys - HYG and VIX - they nearly made it (but not quite) as the Dow ended -0.08 points rallying 75 points off the lows on the worst macro data day in months, with the EURUSD ramping just the right amount over 1.31.

The four horsemen of the Eurocalypse arrived in Dublin Castle today. If we were the 6 (yes, only 6) tons of official Irish gold holdings, we would be worried. Very worried.

"Any sufficiently advanced cartel's actions are indistinguishable from magic."

Some of you might find some of these images disturbing or even exciting...

One element of the President's budget is a sham.

This must be bullish. While the rise in railcar loadings (whether driven by the rotation from pipelines to rail or a 'real' recovery in the economy) has been impressive off the lows and had got back to pre-recession levels, this year is not looking so good. The typical seasonal pattern - somewhat obviously - starts around mid January and rises all year tending to roll over around the start of November into holiday season. 1995 was the last year that intermodal railcar loadings rolled over notably away from this pattern. Since mid-January, 2013 has seen a notably different pattern from the norm - worse than 2009's abrupt plunge.

Earlier today, as part of our JPM earnings recap we observed that "VaR plunged from $106 to $62" and wondered if it was just just "another excel copy/paste error" which as we reported previously, is what JPM's internal audit attributed much of the confusion surrounding JPM's VaR calculation around the time the London Whale blow up nearly doubled the firm's VaR. Because it is always better to blame a clueless intern for botching Excel than to put the blame where it rightfully belongs.  It turns out that as frequently happens, there was a dose of financial surreality behind the humor. As Bloomberg reports, the reason for the nearly 50% collapse in the company's reported maximum value at risk was because of, drumroll, yet another change in the model. 'JPMorgan said today it employed a new formula to judge the risk of its credit derivatives position, at least the fourth such model it’s used since January 2012. The portfolio was built by Bruno Iksil, known as the London Whale because his bets were so big they moved markets."

First there was Japan's 'capture' of the Senkakus and the looming troubles that small island will lead to with the Chinese. Then came the economic deflationary spiral, as the global devaluation of developed market currencies prompted Japan to start an aggressive currency war of their own. And now, with North Korea's sabre rattling growing ever louder, Fox News reports that following comments by Japan's Yoshihide Suga on "destroying any missile heading towards Japan," the North Koreans retorted with a threat that Tokyo would be the first target if they decide to play the nuclear card. Luckily, we have John Kerry on the spot, "if Kim Jong Un decides to launch a missile, whether it's across the Sea of Japan or some other direction, he will be choosing willfully to ignore the entire international community," as he weighed in on comments leaked yesterday that North Korea now had the know-how to arm a ballistic missile with a nuclear warhead - even if the weapons would lack reliability. Which is worse an unreliable nuclear missile or a reliable one? Though there is a silver lining, since if a broken window creates a Keynesian utopia, just think of the GDP-boosting greatness of a nuclear explosion in the heart of Roppongi.

Perhaps the most underfollowed story of the day is the blatant takeover of the Cypriot Central bank by the ECB, which as we reported earlier, has been ordered to sell their gold by the ECB's Mario Draghi, even though the disposition decision of the "independent" central bank of the now insolvent nation is supposedly theirs. First it was this:

• PANICOS DEMETRIADES SAYS CYPRUS CENTRAL BANK INDEPENDENCE UNDER ATTACK,
  
• DEMETRIADES SAYS GOVT WANTS TO SELL GOLD WITHOUT CONSULTATION.

And now we learn that not one, not two, but three board members of the central bank have called it a day:

• THIRD BOARD MEMBER OF THE CYPRUS CENTRAL BANK RESIGNS

We are sure there are at least a few more board members who can resign topped off by Panicos himself bailing, before the entire central bank implodes, and there is nobody left in charge of the now obsolete monetary policy apparatus. What happens then: will Goldman appoint a new "technocratic" Board and governor, or will the country finally confirm that all European lies about member bank Independence is just one big lie?

Did you know that there are thousands upon thousands of homeless people that are living underground beneath the streets of major U.S. cities?  It is happening in Las Vegas, it is happening in New York City and it is even happening in Kansas City.  As the economy crumbles, poverty in the United States is absolutely exploding and so is homelessness.  In addition to the thousands of "tunnel people" living under the streets of America, there are also thousands that are living in tent cities, there are tens of thousands that are living in their vehicles and there are more than a million public school children that do not have a home to go back to at night.  The federal government tells us that the recession "is over" and that "things are getting better", and yet poverty and homelessness in this country continue to rise with no end in sight.  So what in the world are things going to look like when the next economic crisis hits?

Judging by the stock markets the last two weeks have been one of the best periods ever but the reality - hidden behind a smoke-screen of central bank liquidity and jawboning mirrors is dire. The last ten days have seen miss-after-miss in macro economic data - in fact this is the biggest plunge in macro data in 10 months. Despite the stock market's exuberance (at all-time highs), macro data has rolled over dramatically to 4-month lows. Of the major economic data points we have missed 18 of the last 20. With sentiment sagging, GDP revising lower, and earnings season disappointing, we can only imagine the BTFD opportunities that await.

Shareholders Join Bankers, Economists, Financial Experts, Regulators and the American People In Calling for a Break Up of the Giant Banks

Update, and sure enough: PANICOS DEMETRIADES SAYS CYPRUS CENTRAL BANK INDEPENDENCE UNDER ATTACK. As a reminder, Panicos hold the now obsolete position of head of the Cyprus Central Bank.

As was noted two days ago (so certainly not the news catalyst for today's gold sell off as some are trying to make it appear) as part of its bailout expansion by 35%, Cyprus announced, then refuted, then re-admitted, it would need to fund a portion of the incremental €7 billion in cash demands by selling €400 million, or nearly all 13.9 tons, of its central bank gold. Today, we learn that this demand came from none other than the head of the ECB Mario Draghi. Bloomberg reports: "European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said the profits of any gold sales by the Cypriot central bank must be used to cover losses it may sustain from emergency loans to Cypriot commercial banks."