Archive - May 9, 2013

Moments ago, embattled hedge fund manager Phil Faclone, whose Harbinger Capital seven years ago was more profitable than Federal Reserve Capital Onshore Fund LP, and where every analyst and trader wanted to work, at least until they decided to work for Paulson 3 years later (oops), just settled with the SEC for the plethora of alleged financial wrongdoing that has troubled him in the past four years, and primarily for misuse of client funds such as using client cash to pay his own taxes, in a move that effectively ends his career in not only the hedge fund worlds, but in finance as well. It is unclear if Falcone's prenup-free marriage is also over as a result: we expect a statement from Lisa's PR group shortly.

By the end of next week, the Obama administration will no longer be able to borrow money to fund government operations because Congress has only agreed to extend the government's borrowing authority until May 19. While he has smartly expressed his preference that the most liquid bond market in the world "not default,", Speaker Boehner will take to the lectern this morning at 1045ET to discuss the upcoming "debt prioritization" bill.  As Reuters notes, House Republicans are expected to pass the bill today that would require the Obama administration to prioritize government debt payments and retirement benefits if Congress fails to reach a deal to raise the U.S. debt ceiling. The legislation is not expected to go anywhere in the Democratic-controlled Senate and the White House has said it will veto the bill, but what is essentially a tactical maneuver will allow the Republicans, who control the House, to argue they have done their best to avoid a potential U.S. credit default. We are sure the M.A.D. defense card will be played at least once...

The relentless warehousing of wholesale inventories continues, even if the "any minute now" gusher of wholesale sales continues to be pushed back into the indefinite future. Sure enough, the March data showed that wholesale sales disappointed, and instead of growing 1.5%, declined by -1.6%, below expectations of a 0.1% rise. This was the biggest drop in sales since March of 2009: another nail in the coffin of any recovery dreams. That this happened even as inventories increased by more than the expected 0.3%, or 0.4% up from the previos decline of -0.4%, shows that indeed the end-demand weakness has been quite widespread. Logically, the Inventory-to-Sales ratio rose to 1.21, up from the 1.17 a year ago, and the highest also since 2009. Sooner or later all this pent up inventory will have to be cleared, resulting in even more dumpin, price reductions and margin deterioration in a retail world in which the bottom line is more elusive now than it has ever been: just ask Amazon.

We almost got an entire 24 hour period that did not have news about imminent war rumblings out of Syria. Almost. Late last night WSJ reported about the civil war torn country (in which the rebels may or may not be using chemical weapons, but are backed by both Al Qaeda and the US government) again, this time on a leak by Israel having warned the US that Russians are "imminently" going to sell advanced ground-to-air missile systems to Syria "that would significantly boost the regime's ability to stave off intervention in its civil war." Supposedly this means that Israel would be unable to continue its unimpeded military incursions of Syrian sovereign airspace and blow stuff up at whim just because it feels like it, and for whatever pretext the Israeli defense forces come up with.

While Paul Singer, Kyle Bass, and Stan Druckenmiller got the headlines, there were in total 14 worthwhile speakers at yesterday's Ira Sohn conference. Though many of the themes were unsurprising, it is nonetheless useful to compare your own views to those of these professional money managers, many of whom are now bludgeoned daily by the 'idiot-maker' rally... of course, that is, until they are proved 100% correct.

"Is it healthy that the default/insolvency cycle is being sedated in so many large economies? Surely the financial system and life in general has prospered through history on the basis of creative destruction. Indeed all the good looking and intelligent readers of this note are products of survival of the fittest. Economic growth over time is helped by a regular cleansing. So are low defaults helping to lock in low growth for years to come across many large economies? Clearly there are other factors at work here but we think that what's great for credit investors isn't necessarily good for the global economy. A bit of a paradox. We would stress that we fully understand why the authorities wouldn't want free markets to operate today as the risk of a huge global default and unemployment cycle would still be very high. However their intervention has a cost in our opinion."

There was no surprise in today's Initial Claims data, which continued the downward trend seen in recent months (despite the data seen in the most recent JOLTS survey which was hardly as optimistic on recent labor trends as the NFP number of the weekly claims data), with the headline number dropping to 323K, down from an upward revised 327K, and below the expected 335K print. On the surface, and at least to algos, this continues to be good news. The question remains whether the improving claim trend is due to fewer layoffs, or a lower marginal detachment workforce due to the labor force participation rate which was at 33 year lows for the second month in a low. At this point any additional substantial drops below the 300,000 range will likely mean a major distortion in the labor force as this is where claims numbers were at a time when the economy was actually strong, as opposed to the current liquified stock-market manipulated sham.

It is rather like sitting in the middle of the desert. We have $100 billion of new sand being pumped in by the Fed each month. Our desert doesn't get much wider as defined by new issuance and so one dune is heaped on another, the compression continues and yields, even from here, will decline. Our sand trap is a fabulous world for borrowers and issuers and a miserable world for investors. The general thinking usually stops here but there is more to this story than that. Over a period of time wealth declines as the bonds markets hold five times the assets of the equity markets and so the lack of yield, of income, begins to take its toll on consumer spending, on corporate revenues and then on profits and on the ability of those dependent of savings to maintain their standard of living. The continual flow of money has helped the banks and helped corporate borrowers but it has not filtered down to the savers and, in fact, their position has been lessened by what the Fed has done.

The Greek economic depressionary catastrophe continues to merrily chug along. Hours ago, Greek Elstat reported that February unemployment rose to a new record high of 27.0%, with the January number revised from 27.2% to 26.7%, up from 21.9% in February 2012, and almost as if unlike the Greek BLS is not even trying to fudge numbers anymore and wants to show a deteriorating situation (or, as it was called in the Old Normal - "reality"). Looking at the Shadow economy, the number of people who are inactive, or "neither worked neither looked for a job", hit 3,358,649. This number is just shy of the total people employed, meaning in 2-3 months, the Greek shadow economy will be greater than the official, taxed-one. A gender breakdown shows that females have never had it worse with 31% unemployment, compared to 24.1% for men. But the most stunning number was the number of unemployed Greek youths (15-24), which hit a record 64.2%, the highest number on record, and a mindblowing 5% increase from the 59.3% youth unemployment reported in January, and a 10% increase from a year ago.

• Einhorn's advice to investors: don't take my advice (Reuters)
• Next: floating dead vegetables: Chinese inflation rises on soaring vegetable prices (FT)
• The scramble for the bottom dollar is on: McDonald's, Wendy's Battle for Value-Centric Customers (WSJ)
• Cheaper iPhone coming after all: Apple supplier Pegatron boosts China workforce by 40 percent in second quarter (Reuters)
• House set to pass tactical Republican debt bill (Reuters)
• Underwriting bonanza: Goldman Said to Earn $500 Million Arranging Malaysia Bond (BBG)
• G7 finance chiefs to discuss bank reform push (Reuters)
• Big Banks Push Back Against Tighter Rules (WSJ)
• University endowments trim holdings in US Treasuries (FT)
• Ex-Pakistan PM's son abducted as Taliban threaten poll (Reuters)
• China Dowry Filled With Gold Signals Gains for Jewelers (BBG)
• As discussed here over a year ago: China inflation data shows central bank policy dilemma (Reuters)

On Tuesday morning at 6 AM EST German Factory Order numbers were released that showed a plus 4 percent gain month over month. Yet last Friday, May 5th US Factory orders were released that showed a negative 4 percent growth rate month over month. Yesterday, German Industrial Production showed a gain of 1.2%.

With another listless macro day in the offing, the main event was the previously mentioned Bank of Korea 25 bps rate cut, which coming at a time when everyone else in the world is easing was not too surprising, but was somewhat unexpected in light of persistent inflationary pressures. Either way, the gauntlet at Abenomics has been thrown and any temporary Japanese Yen-driven export gains will likely not persist as it is the quality of products perception (sorry 20th century Toshiba and Sony), that is the primary determinant of end demand, not transitory, FX-driven prices. And now that Korea is set on once again matching Japan in competitiveness, the final piece of the Abenomics unwind puzzle has finally clicked into place.  Elsewhere overnight, China reported consumer price inflation increasing by 2.4%, on expectations of a 2.3% rise, driven by a 4% jump in food costs: hardly the thing of Politburo dreams. Or perhaps the PBOC can just print more pigs, soy and birdflu-free chickens? On the other hand, PPI dropped 2.6% in April, on estimates of a 2.3% decline, as China telegraphs it has the capacity, if needed, to stimulate the economy. This is ironic considering its inflation pressures are externally-driven, and come from the Fed and the BOJ, and soon the BOE and ECB. And thus its economy stagnates while prices are driven higher by hot money flows. What to do?

Kenya, Australia, Poland and now South Korea. The country, whose net exports represent nearly 60% of GDP, and which have been deeply impacted by the recent collapse in the Yen, finally threw in the towel overnight and cut the benchmark seven-day repurchase rate from 2.75% to 2.50%, as only 6 of 20 economists predicted. The reason the move was surprising is that just like China, which overnight reported CPI of 2.4% on expectations of 2.3%, the country still has pent up inflation concerns, however it appears that preserving economic growth and its export potential is more important to the country bordered by North Korea, than price stability. The result of this largely unexpected move is a strengthening in the Yen overnight, if only by some 30 pips in the USDJPY.