Archive - May 2013

Investors take note, the market has numeous red flags for stocks. If you're not prepared for a correction, now is the time to do so. 

Courtesy of this picture, we can at least put to rest all rumors that G-Pap and Pauly-K are the same person...

While there is little gained in figuring out the vacillations in equity 'markets' from one moment to the next, there appear to be three reasons being discussed for this drop in stocks. First, this is the worst  month for the long bond in absolute price deterioration since Dec 2009 - for managers in balanced portfolios, there will need to be a month-end rebalancing 'into' bonds and out of stocks to ensure the weightings remain with their mandates. Second, the index rebalancing is having some effect on the equity market (though that has been well telegraphed). Third, and perhaps more important to some, based on intraday data so far, the much-discussed Hindenburg Omen has been spotted (as it also was before QE2 was announced to save the world). The last time we were this high in stocks and the Hindenburg was spotted was October 2007...

Having shifted our communication stance from 'may' to 'will' last month, the Fed's upcoming POMO schedule offers some insights into the days when shorting (apart from the obvious Tuesdays) will be dangerous (though the BoJ now stuck may require a communication change back to 'may'). We do note that the Fed POMO'd $44 billion out outright Treasury purchases in May (as expected) and plans to do the same in June with $45 billion pegged (strongly suggesting no Taper anytime soon)... it seems next Friday is your first opportunity (though if the last hour is anything to go by... perhaps the Fed's omniptence is being challenged).

While most of the headlines this week have centered on Syria, Sweden (and Switzerland), Turkey has been cooking and today has broken into full-scale riots. As Reuters reports, Turkish police fired tear gas and water cannon on Friday at demonstrators in central Istanbul, wounding scores of people and prompting rallies in other cities in the fiercest anti-government protests for years. The growing unrest centers on disquiet at the authoritarianism of Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan and his Islamist-rooted Justice and Development Party (who just visited Obama). "We do not have a government, we have Tayyip Erdogan ... Even AK Party supporters are saying they have lost their mind, they are not listening to us." The protests somewhat surprisingly were sparked by the uprooting of trees but rapidly escalated (as seen below) into riot police, water cannon, and tear gas battles as protesters exclaim, "we're fed up... we don't like the direction the country is heading."

Perhaps there is a reason why Morgan Stanley is 'giving up' on its fixed income business. It seems, yet again Morgan Stanley has hired an ex-Goldman Sachs criminal   opportunistic trader. Glenn Hadden, the very head of interest rate trading at Morgan Stanley, has been found guilty of engaging in trading that violated CME rules in Treasury futures on December 19th 2008 - while was employed by Goldman Sachs. While Goldman faces a $875,000 slap on the wrist, Hadden, somewhat remarkably will face a mere $80,000 fine and the wonderfully timed (given the summer doldrums) 10-day suspension from trading. Doing God's work wherever they trade... that'll teach him! And now, back to Glenn manipulating buying and selling the 10 Year.

Following Russia's first shipment of S-300 Rockets and the CNN-reported deaths of American and British citizens, it seems the situation in Syria is escalating 'behind-the-scenes' with little attention being paid in general. Whether it is the deaths or not, but according to the FT, the 'war-by-proxy' is growing in numbers as the UK is poised to ship arms to some rebel factions in Syria as soon as this summer. "The precise timing has not yet been finalized and no decision has yet been taken. But we are likely to be ... shipping arms to the rebels by August," one official noted, adding that "the rebels need ammunition, and a lot of it, just to keep fighting." The US had secretly undertaken significant lobbying efforts of EU member states to get the EU arms embargo amended and this week Britain and France forced through that deal opening the door for the supply of weapons. Adding to the angst, Russia's MiG aircraft makers said on Friday that it planned to sign a new agreement to ship at least 10 fighter jets to Syria.

The global Monsanto genetically modified wheat scandal is getting worse.

Is there a better phrase to describe modern government than “a seedy circus which is perpetually in debt?” It is perfect. Government is exhausted. It, like Whipsnade’s circus, is  out of resources, ideas and solutions. Government has painted itself into a fiscal and financial corner from which there is no escape. As a result of its profligacy, government is no longer able to sustain itself. That is the real reason for the Fed’s quantitative easing program(s). Taxes and traditional government bond sales no longer provide enough money to run the monster. QE, more properly described as counterfeiting, is a euphemism to disguise the insolvency of the government. Without the Federal Reserve, government would have to pare down dramatically. Government is now a facade, with guns. It has failed miserably at governance and shifted its focus to survival.

a brief sketch.

Presented with little comment, aside to warn - beware the serial extrapolators...

Ronald Reagan would be turning in his grave, wouldn’t he? In what became known as the most anti-communist speech of all time given by Reagan in 1987 on the 70th anniversary of the Bolshevik Revolution (1917), the former President of the United States of America said that the Soviet Union was the ‘evil empire’.

"QE detractors... see something quite different. They see QE as not responding to the collapse in the money multiplier but to some extent causing it. In this account QE – and the flatter yield curves that have resulted from it – has itself broken the monetary transmission mechanism, resulting in central banks pushing ever more liquidity on a limper and limper string. In this view, it is not inflation that’s at risk from QE, but rather, the health of the financial system. In this view, instead of central banks waiting for the money multiplier to rebound to old normal levels before QE is tapered or ended, central banks must taper or end QE first to induce the money multiplier and bank lending to increase."

In the 15th century, the highest standard of living in the world belonged to China. Places like Nanjing had reached the pinnacle of civilization with incredibly modern infrastructure, robust economies, substantial international trade, great healthcare, and a rising middle class. If you had told a Chinese merchant at the time that, over the course of the next several hundred years, global primacy would shift to Europe (and a relatively unknown American continent), you would have been laughed at. It was simply unthinkable given how advanced China was over the west. And yet, it happened. Ironically, the tables are turning yet again; in total objectivity, the patient is beyond cure at this point… and the math is quite simple. Nations typically enter this vicious cycle once they start having to borrow money just to pay interest on what they already owe. The US is already way past this point.