Archive - May 2013

While POMO and its unstopppable force of liquification will lift the nominal price of each and every stock to the point of no return, it seems VIX, Treasury, and JPY-carry traders are not quite as convinced that today is the day to be backing up the truck...

After the "humiliating" performance in Q4 2012, when Bank of America had a whopping 2 trading loss days out of 61, in has managed to redeem itself in the first quarter of 2012, when not only did it record seven trading days when it generated revenue of over $100 million daily, but more importantly it had zero days (of 60 total) with any net trading losses: a track record that can only be matched by any daytrader on Twitter. After all, what is better than trading when there is no risk of loss.

Back in February we introduced the world to their last best hope in controlling the largesse of the world's central bankers. The 'Brent Vigilantes' were shown to have taken over the mantle of the now totally-repressed and benign bond vigilantes (since deficits don't matter apparently). Each time retail gas prices have breached $3.80 in the past six years, the S&P 500 has crested (specifically the crossing of that threshold has seen P/E multiple expansion brought to a halt). With current gas prices around $3.53, we hear you cry, "what are you worried about?" Well, simply put, the answer lies in what is coming. Prices at the pump follow crude oil prices extremely closely with around a 30-day lag; the current WTI crude prices imply a price of gas at the pump around $3.80. So, if there is anything that can stop us from hitting 2,000 on the S&P 500 (or Dow 30,000), we suspect it is the 'tax' that gas prices represent and we now know what the trajectory of those prices is likely to be in the next few weeks.

Gross: Central bank credit & hope for real growth drive risk markets. Both must continue to support current prices.

— PIMCO (@PIMCO) May 8, 2013

A panel of bankers warned the Fed in February that their extreme monetary policy is forcing institutions to "accept greater credit-risk" than "makes sense" and student debt and farmland prices are in a bubble. We first started to explain the bubble in student debt over two years ago and since then the bubble has become larger (and the underlying structure much more fragile as delinquencies soar). Farmland rose in price over 16% last year (according to the Chicago Fed) and has surged 8% per annum over the past decade. Credit risk is now at levels associated with the CDO-driven liquidity excess of 2006. "Further accommodation is not warranted," the minutes of this meeting show - uncovered by Bloomberg via the FOIA. The comments should cause Bernanke and his merry men to pause for breath but of course it is likely what he wanted all along. "Growth in student debt... has parallels to the housing crisis," and "agricultural land prices are veering further from what makes sense," are just two of the bankers' comments, adding that this "will ultimately result in higher loan losses," which is odd since every bank is adjusting down its loan-loss-reserves and juicing earnings.

In what must be an inexplicable move to momentum-chasers everywhere, as gold continued to decline in price in March, and long before its targeted smash in April, China was not backing off its gold purchases of the yellow product. Quite the contrary: as export data released by the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department overnight showed, Chinese gold imports in March exploded to an all time record high of 223.5 tons. This follows 97.1 tons in February, and brings the total imports for the first quarter of 2013, or 372 tons, on par with what China imported in the entire first half. It also means that since January 2012, China has imported an absolutely stunning 1,206 tons of gold. Putting this number in context, this is 20% more than the entire reporter official gold holdings of 1054 tons, and represents roughly half of the total 2500 tons of gold mined every year.

Irishmen with over 100k in euros in suspect Irish banks might as well kiss those damn euros goodbye. You can't say I didn't warn 'ya!

The main source of hot money going into China appears to be coming from Chinese businesses- banks and exporters. US is a net importer of capital. Japan has been net sellers of foreign bonds. Europe is experiencing net inflows.

Currently, central banks around the world are walking in lock step down a dangerous path of money creation. Led by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, economic policy is driven by the idea that printed money can be the true basis of growth. The result is an unprecedented global orgy of currency creation. The only holdout to this open ended commitment has been the hard money bias of the German-dominated European Central Bank (ECB). However, growing political pressure from around the world, and growing dissatisfaction among domestic voters have shaken, and perhaps cracked, the German resolve. While German capitulations in the past have been welcome occurrences, in this instance the world would be better served if the Germans could stick to their guns. However, it seems presciently, that the ECB is looking for ways around Germany's oppostion to outright monetization by securitizing SME loans and buying ABS directly on to their own balance sheet.

Update: we decided it may be an opportune time to remind readers of this particular fact... not opinion, not propaganda, not insinuation. Fact, which apparently has forced a once informative medium, and now purely propaganda infomercial, to stoop so low to be in need of trolling websites to generate incremental eyeballs.

One of the main, unintended consequences of this development to prop up markets at all costs, even if it means removing all logic and reliance on fundamental data, has been the complete evaporation of interest in any finance-related media, forcing the bulk of financial outlets to rely on such cheap gimmicks as slideshows, pictures of kittens, trolling and generally hiring liberal arts majors straight out of school to copy and paste articles while paying them minimum wage, and providing absolutely no insight (and then wondering why the Series ZZ preferred investors will never get their money back, let alone the A round). However, nowhere is this more obvious than in the relentless imploding viewership of once financial media titan, CNBC, which lately has become a sad, one-sided caricature of its once informative self, whose only agenda is to get the most marginal Joe Sixpack to dump his hard-earned cash into 100x P/E stocks, and where according to data from Nielsen Media Research, the total and demographic (25-54) viewership during the prime time segment (9:30am - 5:00 pm) just tumbled to 216K and 40K - the lowest recorded viewership since mid 2005 and sliding.

All Chinese economic data is manipulated: that much is known. So is its trade data. However, the manipulation has become so grossly evident, some wonder if there is a far bigger problem behind the scenes. Turns out there is: a $60 billion per month "hot capital" inflow problem, and an economy on the very of bursting at the inflationary seams.

• Pentagon Plans for the Worst in Syria (WSJ)
• Russia and US agree to Syria conference after Moscow talks (FT)
• Hedge Funds Rush Into Debt Trading With $108 Billion (BBG)
• Detroit is the new "deep value" - Hedge funds in search of distress take a look at Detroit (Reuters)
• Commodities hedge funds suffer weak first quarter (FT)
• But... but... Abenomics - Toshiba posts 62% decline in Q1 net profit (WSJ)
• Americans Are Borrowing Again but Still Less Than Before Freeze (WSJ)
• Man Utd announce Alex Ferguson to retire (FT)
• Asmussen Says ECB Discussed ABS Purchases to Spur SME Lending (BBG)
• Benghazi Attack Set for New Review (WSJ)
• Belgium Says 31 People Arrested Over $50 Million Diamond Theft (BBG)
• Brazilian diplomat Roberto Azevêdo wins WTO leadership battle (FT)
• Bangladesh Garment Factory Building Collapse Toll Reaches 782 (BBG)

The overnight economic data dump started in China, where both exports and imports rose more than expected, at 14.7% and 16.8% respectively, on expectations of a 9.2% and 13% rise. The result was a trade surplus of $18.16 billion versus expectations of $16.15 billion. The only problem with the data is that as always, but especially in the past few months, it continued to be completely made up as SocGen analysts, and others, pointed out. The good data continued into the European trading session, where moments ago German Industrial Production rose 1.2% despite expectations of a -0.1% drop, up from 0.6% and the best print since March 2012. The followed yesterday's better than expected factory orders data, which also came at the best level since October. Whether this data too was made up, remains unknown, but it is clear that Germany will do everything it can to telegraph its economic contraction is not accelerating. It also means that any concerns of an imminent ECB rate cut, or a negative deposit rate, are likely overblown for the time being, as reflected in the kneejerk jump in the EURUSD higher.