Archive - May 2013

As we reported well over a year ago coupled with some subsequent thoughts on what the inevitable launch of floating rate notes (FRNs) by the US Treasury means for the US bond market, we now learn that the launch of FRN Treasurys is imminent and the first US FRN note may come to the public as soon as a few months from now. As the Treasury's refunding statement issued moments ago announced, "we plan to issue a final rule on floating rate notes in the coming months, with the first FRN auction estimated to occur in either Q4 2013 or Q1 2014.  This timeframe reflects Treasury's best estimate for implementing required auction regulations and IT systems modifications. Treasury will provide additional information regarding the timing of the first auction at the August refunding."

Following the earlier reported devastating news for Mark Zandi fans (all one of them, including Mr. Zandi himself) that the Moody's economist/ADP seasonal adjuster, will not be the next head of the GSEs, and instead that privilege will go to North Carolina Democrat Mel Watt, we decided to take a quick look in whose pocket the career Congressman (elected into congress in 1992) truly lies. We are delighted to announce that with Mr. Watt's lobbying dollars coming almost exclusively from Wall Street, Lawyers/Law Firms, and Labor Unions, the $7+ trillion in US mortgages, and sole source of mortgage creation in the US, is in "very good", if just a little conflicted and quite socialist, hands. Mortgage forgiveness-demanding, crony capitalist comrades of the world, unite! (while charging $1000/hour)

While the immediate catalyst will be heralded a weak ADP report, commodities in general have been sliding all morning. In the last few minutes (and for the third day in a row) Silver and Gold prices have slumped hard around the 8ET hour. What is somewhat od about this smackdown is that the USD is being sold aggressively against the JPY (tested 97) and EUR (above 1.32). Oil is not smackdown retradant and has dropped back under $91.50 for WTI. S&P futures are 6 points off overnight highs (a mere -2 from the close).

With the March Payroll number printing at a miserable 88K compared to ADP's 158K print, it was only a matter of time before Mark Zandi, still furious from getting the news he won't be the next GSE Tzar, revised the last month's data to 131K as he just did. Concurrently he also announced that the just released April ADP was a huge miss to expectations of 150K, printing at just 119K, or a 31K miss. This was the 5th month in a row of declines excluding the small bounce in February data. It also means that the combined miss to expectations including March (original estimate +200K) and April (estimate 150K) is precisely 100K. This excludes whatever revisions ADP will do to the April number following the even bigger looming NFP miss. Manufacturing jobs? -10,000. Oh yes, anyone looking for seasonally unadjusted ADP data, good luck - keep on looking. In short: yet another atrocious economic data point which however may need the support of the equally horrible sub-49 Mfg ISM due out shortly to take out 1600 in the S&P. 

The highlights from Bill Gross' monthly letter: "The past decade has proved that houses were merely homes and not ATM machines. They were not “good as money.” Likewise, the Fed’s modern day liquid wealth creations such as bonds and stocks may suffer a similar fate at a future bubbled price whether it be 1.50% for a 10-year Treasury or Dow 16,000.... if there are no spending cuts or asset price write-offs, then it’s hard to see how deficits and outstanding debt as a percentage of GDP can ever be reduced....  Current policies come with a cost even as they act to magically float asset prices higher, making many of them to appear “good as money”. And the take away: "PIMCO’s advice is to continue to participate in an obviously central-bank-generated bubble but to gradually reduce risk positions in 2013 and perhaps beyond. While this Outlook has indeed claimed that Treasuries are money good but not “good money,” they are better than the alternative (cash) as long as central banks and dollar reserve countries (China, Japan) continue to participate....a bond and equity investor can choose to play with historically high risk to principal or quit the game and earn nothing."

• Physical demand up: U.S. Mint Sales of Gold Coins Jump to Highest in Three Years (BBG)
• Paper demand down: Gold ETP Holdings Cap Record Drop as $17.9 Billion Wiped Out (BBG)
• It's May 1 not April 1: Fed Seen Slowing Stimulus With QE Cut by End of This Year (BBG)
• Another great step for Abenomics: Sony leadership to forgo bonuses after broken promise on profits (FT)
• High-Speed Traders Exploit Loophole (WSJ)
• It's peanut Breaburn jelly time: How Google UK clouds its tax liabilities (Reuters)
• Frowny face day at the Mark Zandi household: Obama Said to Choose Watt to Lead Fannie Mae Regulator (BBG)
• Russia’s 20 Biggest Billionaires Keep Riches From Putin (BBG)
• China Affair With Cheap Diamonds Heats Mass Market (BBG)
• China's emotional ties to North Korea run deep in border city (Reuters)
• US companies must use cash piles for capex (FT) ... and yet they aren't. Tax anyone who doesn't spend for CapEx!
• Chinese Way of Doing Business: In Cash We Trust (NYT)

While it is the labor day holiday in most of the world, and as a result volumes will be more subdued than ever (meaning at least a 10 point algorithmic levitation on no volume for the S&P), let's not forget that Benny and the Inkjets are doing their best to make everyone into a professional day trader (the only "wealth effect" transmission mechanism left) so markets being open seems somewhat counterproductive. That said, futures are already up on the usual atrocious economic data out of Asia this time. First China's official manufacturing PMI slipped 0.3pt to 50.6, coming below expectations, suggesting weak momentum going into Q2. Meanwhile, Korea trade data indicated weaker momentum in exports than expected, rising 0.4% on expectations of a 2% bounce courtesy of Abenomics, and hence a lower trade surplus, while inflation defied median expectations of a rise and slowed yet further. Finally, Australia PMI was an absolute disaster printing even worse than the Chicago PMI, plunging from 44.4 to 36.7, meaning that the RBA is about to join the global "reflation effort." Given that most markets in Asia are closed today, there is no market reaction worth mentioning, aside from the fact that the yen which was logically weaker overnight then ramped up into the European open and US pre-trading as it is, after all, the primary source of "beta" for the global stock markets. Finally, while some are dreading the start of "sell in May and go away" season, what most have forgotten is that never before has May been accompanied by $160 billion per month in central bank de novo liquidity (a number which will only go up- you know, for the wealth effect). Which is why our redefinition of this infamous phrase is "buy in May and buy every day."

If you're trading gold, you're really trading the dollar (euro, etc.). There is something fundamental you should know.