Archive - Jun 14, 2013

James Steel, chief commodities analyst at HSBC in New York continues to be constructive on gold in the medium and long term and sees gold rising to $1,600/oz in the second half of 2013.

Why do these high level guys "unexpectedly" resign as soon as a few secrets are revealed?

There can be no doubt that the global growth, earnings, incomes and fundamental story remains very subdued. But at the same time financial markets, hooked on central bank ‘heroin’, have created an enormous and – in the long run – untenable gap between themselves and the real economy’s fundamentals. This gap is getting to dangerous levels, with positioning, sentiment, speculation, margin and leverage running at levels unseen since 2006/2007. ‘Tapering’ is going to happen. It will be gentle, it will be well telegraphed, and the key will be to avoid a major shock to the real economy. But the Fed is NOT going to taper because the economy is too strong or because we have sustained core (wage) inflation, or because we have full employment - none of these conditions will be seen for some years to come. Rather, we feel that the Fed is going to taper because it is getting very fearful that it is creating a number of significant and dangerous leverage driven speculative bubbles that could threaten the financial stability of the US. In central bank speak, the Fed has likely come to the point where it feels the costs now outweigh the benefits of more policy.

The monthly TIC (foreign capital flows) data gets less respect than it should. Perhaps it is because it is two months delayed, or perhaps due to the Treasury Department labyrinth one has to cross in order to figure out what is going on. Either way, for those who do follow the data set, will know by now that in April, foreign investors, official and private, sold $54.5 billion. Why is this number of note? Because it is the biggest monthly sale of Treasurys by foreigners in the history of the data series. The TSY revulsion was somewhat offset by a jump in MBS purchases, which saw $23 billion in acquisitions, while corporate bonds were sold to the tune of $4.5 billion. Finally, looking at equities, foreigners were responsible for some $11.2 billion in US stock purchases. The great rotation may not be working domestically, but it seems to be finally impacting foreign investors.

After reaching six year highs last month, UMich consumer sentiment dropped back, missing expectations by the most in six months (82.7 vs 84.5 expectation). Of course, it is the hope for the future that maintains the overall level as the 'outlook' section rose from 75.8 to 76.7 - its highest in 7 months while the current conditions fell back notably (its biggest drop in a year!). Inflation expectations also rose for both 1- and 5-year horizons. The worse than expected print provided some modest pre-release jerk lower in futures which was immediately bid after as S&P pushes the highs in a seemingly bad-is-good reaction (though in a tiny 3 point range).

Amid the Syria debacle (or growth 'hope' if you are a true believer), the price of a barrel of WTI crude oil just topped $98 - its highest since September of last year. The bad news for all those that 'consume' is that this level of crude suggests the price at the pump will be hitting $3.80 - that elusive P/E expansion-ending level - very soon.

Earlier today we reported that producer prices in May rose primarily as a result of a jump in electricity and nat gas prices. Which is why it is somewhat surprising that Industrial Production among Utilities dropped by the most, or -1.8%, for the second month in a row, following last month's -3.2% decline. This drop was offset by an increase in Mining IP of 0.7% (a decline from April's 1.1%) and the general manufacturing production which increased by a tiny 0.1%, still the best result of the past three months.  Altogether, these amounted to an unchanged print in the broader index, which printed at 98.7, same as April, and the lowest since February, not to mention below expectations of a 0.2% increase. Finally, looking at capacity utilization, in May total industry CU edged down 0.1 percentage point to 77.6 percent, a rate 0.2 percentage point below its level of a year earlier and 2.6 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2012) average. It was also the lowest print since October 2012. Oops.

Sometimes you see something that is from a credible source and you are so dumbfounded you don’t know what to think. Yesterday's raly-inducing WSJ' Jon Hiselnrath is one such example. If the Fed believes the market is worried about a rate hike, it would be downright terrifying how out of touch the Central Bank. Our explanation for the move in short rates is the loss of confidence in the Central Bank and its policy making process. The Fed’s balance sheet and Quantitative Easing program has become a Frankenstein monster over which the Central Bank is losing control. QE1 started during a crisis and was either incredibly successful or well-timed. It is often forgotten that the S&P 500 dropped another 22% in the first 3 months of QE1. QE1 had an Exit Strategy, a plan, a time frame and a reason. QE3 has no Exit Strategy, no plan, time frame, no expected level of job creation and no known end. As such, forecasting is nearly impossible in a policy by whim environment, especially when the key decision maker is likely to leave.

So much for continued disinflation: moments ago the PPI headline number came out at the highest level since February, or 0.5%, well above the expected 0.1% and up significantly from the -0.7% in April. The core PPI ex-food (which rose 0.6%) and energy (increasing 1.3% in May, the highest since February) rose a far more manageable 0.1% in May, and just 1.7% Y/Y, below the statutory accepted 2% annual growth on both the producer and consumer side: a break down of just which finished products led to this increase (gasoline, eggs and imitation cheese as it turns out) is provided below. Luckily, since nobody in the US either eats or uses energy (because they are such a "small component" of the hedonically-adjusted purse), nobody will mind when companies have no option but to pass through rising input costs to consumers.

Demand isn’t there at the moment in the economy. Production isn’t being utilized. Any monetary policy will only be temporarily of benefit to the market and keep them happy (as it has done for six months).

It was less than 24 hours after we warned that the Chinese "liquidity shortage" had hit an all time high, as a result of the PBOC's intransigence to inject liquidity into a financial system roiled by Bernanke's and Kuroda's offshore hot-money flows, that things got worse when early in the Chinese trading session we learned that the PBOC experienced its first liquidity drainage failure in 23 months, when the Chinese Finance Ministry failed to sell over 30% of the debt offered at auction - the direct result of a cash squeeze currently ravaging the country's banks. The ministry sold 9.53 billion yuan ($1.55 billion) of 273-day bills, less than the 15 billion yuan target, according to Chinabond, the nation’s biggest bond-clearing house. Agricultural Development Bank of China Co. raised 11.51 billion yuan in a sale of six-month bills last week, less than its 20 billion yuan goal.

"Information about the usage of chemical weapons by Assad is fabricated in the same way as the lie about Hussein's weapons of mass destruction.” Alexei Pushkov, head of the Russian lower house of parliament’s international affairs committee, said on Twitter.

• As Goldman's money-printing tentacle Carney arrives, everyone else leaves: Tucker to Leave BOE (WSJ)
• So much for pent up demand: Refinancings Plunge as Bond Yields Rise (WSJ)
• Singapore Censures 20 Banks for Attempts to Rig Benchmark Rates (BBG)
• Behind the Big Profits: A Research Tax Break (WSJ)
• While working for spies, Snowden was secretly prolific online (Reuters)
• Turkey to Await Ruling on Park as Erdogan Meets Protesters (BBG)
• Iran votes for new president, Khamenei slams U.S. doubts (Reuters)
• NSA revelations, modified wheat cast a pall on U.S. trade talks with Europe (WaPo)
• Euro zone inflation subdued as employment keeps falling (Reuters)

Thursdays may be the new Tuesdays (if only this week), but so far Fridays are still just Fridays, and no mysterious overnight levitation is here to open the market 0.5% higher. The Nikkei 225 retraced a fraction of Thursday’s losses overnight as the positive close on Wall Street and a dovish interpretation of Hilsenrath’s WSJ piece yesterday allowed the Japanese indices to recover from the worst levels of the week. USD/JPY has pared Thursday’s bounce and trades lower as the Bank of Japan’s minutes showed one member of the board proposing the advantages of limiting the bank’s QQE program to just two years in order to avoid financial imbalances. Overnight in China, as we warned yesterday, the liquidity situation got even worse, when the PBOC's attempt to drain liquidity failed to sell some 30% of the planned 15 billion yuan in 273-day bills (more on this shortly), leaving the banks screaming Uncle and on the verge of a full-blown liquidity crisis: we expect rumors, and news, of more banks failing to roll over overnight liquidity to hit the tape shortly.

It is a fact that COMEX gold inventories are falling and silver inventories are rising. Why and does this help predict the next price move?