Archive - Jun 20, 2013

• Bonds Tumble With Stocks as Gold Drops in Rout on Fed (BBG)
• Bernanke Sees Beginning of End for Fed’s Record Easing (BBG)
• Gold Tumbles to 2 1/2 Year-Low After Fed as Silver Plummets (BBG)
• PBoC dashes hopes of China liquidity boost (FT)
• U.S. Icons Now Made of Chinese Steel (WSJ)
• Emerging Markets Crack as $3.9 Trillion Funds Unwind (BBG)
• Everyone joins the fun: India sets up elaborate system to tap phone calls, e-mail (Reuters)
• China Manufacturing Shrinks Faster in Threat to Europe (BBG)
• More on how Syria's Al-qaeda, and now US, supported "rebels", aka Qatar mercenaries, operate (Reuters)
• Echoes of Mao in China cash crunch (FT) - how dare a central bank not pander to every bank demand?
• French watchdog tells Google to change privacy policy (Reuters)

Murder, Death and Mobsters on Wall St....Who Knew?

It was only a matter of time before at least one Chinese bank (and then many more) needing to rollover overnight/short-term funding and unable to do so in an interbank market that is now completely frozen, had to be bailed out. Sure enough, according to Hao Hong, the chief China strategist at Bank of Communications Co., who cited unidentified industry sources, the People’s Bank of China used "targeted liquidity operations" to supply 50b yuan to a bank in China. Bloomberg reports that the overnight cash supplied was at 5.1%, while the 1-week at 5.4%. Hong added that more banks are in talks with PBOC to obtain funds amid a cash squeeze, as expected. The problem is that the PBOC can't continue targeted bail outs, and will sooner or later be forced into a broad liquidity providing move, which will unleash a repeat of the 2011 in China scenario, which did not have a very happy ending.

The global liquidation wave started with Bernanke's statement yesterday, which was interpreted far more hawkishly than any of his previous public appearances, even though the Fed had been warning for months about the taper. Still, markets were shocked, shocked. Then it moved to Japan, where for the first time in months, the USDJPY and the Nikkei diverged, and despite the strong dollar, the Nikkei slumped 1.74%. Then, China was swept under, following the weakest HSBC flash manufacturing PMI print even as the PBOC continued to not help a liquidity-starved banking sector, leading to the overnight repo rate briefly touching on an unprecedented 25%, and locking up the entire interbank market, sending the Shanghai Composite down nearly 3% as China is on its way to going red for the year. Then, India got hit, with the rupee plunging to a record low against the dollar and the bond market briefly being halted limit down. Then moving to Europe, market after market opened and promptly slid deep into the red, despite a services and mfg PMI which both beat expectations modestly (48.6 vs 47.5 exp., 48.9 vs 48.1 exp) while German manufacturing weakened. This didn't matter to either stocks or bond markets, as peripheral bond yields promptly soared as the unwind of the carry trade is facing complacent bond fund managers in the face. And of course, the selling has now shifted to the US-premarket session where equity futures have seen better days. In short: a bloodbath.

The global capital markets are seeing large moves in response not only to the Federal Reserve, though clearly that is a key impetus, but also to developments elsewhere. Here is a dispassionate review.