Archive - Jun 4, 2013

If we see the economy as a system, we understand why removing or suppressing feedback inevitably leads to financial crashes. The essential feature of stable, robust systems (for example, healthy ecosystems) is their wealth of feedback loops and the low-intensity background volatility that complex feedback generates. The essential feature of unstable, crash-prone systems is monoculture, an artificial structure imposed by a central authority that eliminates or suppresses feedback in service of a simplistic goal--for example, increasing the yield on a single crop, or pushing everyone with cash into risk assets. Resistance seems futile, but the very act of suppressing feedback dooms the system to collapse.

There is energy independence, and then there are crude oil imports, which according to just released and revised Census data, amounted to 233,215 thousand barrels in April, and 914,456 thousand barrels year to date (just under 3 billion annualized). For those unaware who the most important US crude oil trading partners are, here is the updated list of the main countries that serve to fuel America's industrial infrastructure and its engines, in the off chance that the Tesla electric revolution fails to deliver.

Following April's surprising drop in crude imports which led to a multi-year low in the March trade balance (revised to -$37.1 billion), the just released April data showed an 8.5% jump in the deficit to $40.3 billion, if modestly better than the expected $41.1 billion. This was driven by a $2.2 billion increase in exports to $185.2 billion offset by a more than double sequential jump in imports by $5.4 billion, to $222.3 billion. More than all of the change was driven by a $3.2 billion increase in the goods deficit, offset by a $0.1 billion surplus in services.The Census Bureau also revised the entire historical data series, the result of which was a drop in the March deficit from $38.8 billion to $37.1 billion. In April 233,215K barrels of oil were imported, well above the 215,734K in March, and the highest since January. Furthermore, since the Q1 cumulative trade deficit has been revised from $126.9 billion to $123.7 billion, expect higher Q1 GDP revisions, offset by even more tapering of Q2 GDP tracking forecasts. And since the data is hardly as horrible as yesterday's ISM, we don't think it will be enough on its own to guarantee the 21 out of 21 Tuesday track record, so we eagerly look forward to today's POMO as the catalyst that seals the deal.

While the market itself has exhibited the exuberance we have all seen before (and never seem capable of learning from), BNP has quantified this love-panic relationship (and the news is not great for the bulls). When in 'love' mode, the average drop in stocks has been 12% in the next six months. The biggest drivers of this "love" have been investor confidence, CoT positioning, short-interest, relative trading volumes, and sectoral outperformance with fund-flows shifting away from "love" suggesting the short-term top is in. The index itself peaked a week or two back at levels of "love' not seen since pre-Lehman; not a good sign.

He knows.

• Whale of a Trade Revealed at Biggest U.S. Bank With Best Control (BBG)
• ECB backs away from use of ‘big bazooka’ to boost credit (FT)
• Turkish unions join fierce protests in which two have died (Reuters)
• Europe Floods Wreak Havoc (WSJ)
• Beheadings by Syrian Rebels Add to Atrocities, UN Says (BBG)
• RBA Sees Further Rate-Cut Scope as Aussie Remains High (BBG)
• China’s ‘great power’ call to the US could stir friction (FT)
• J.C. Penney Continuing Ron Johnson’s Vision on the Cheap (BBG)

Today, there is almost zero truth in mainstream media. The fascist corporate-banking-government machine has ensured that mainstream media has now become the official department of propaganda, not only in political news, but also regarding nearly all financial news as well.

All traders walking in today, have just one question in their minds: "will today be lucky 21?" or the 21st consecutive Tuesday in which the Dow Jones has closed green.

All else is irrelevant.

Are you ready for the next stock-market crash of the century? The Hindenburg Omen was spotted by eagle eyes on April 15th. It was confirmed by a sighting on May 29th. That gives us 40 days approximately before the market takes a plunge (apparently). That’s enough to spark fears on the market that we are in for a shaky time, but are those fears really justified and will the market plunge as the Hindenburg Omen predicts?

Consumer confidence in the US stands at 76.2 in May 2013 (1985=100). That’s an increase from 58.4 in January. The Conference Board’s figures show that things have not looked so good for months. Things seem to be looking up. But, is the US consumer right to believe in the market and that the economy is getting better and the medicine is working?

On practically every day of the past four years, we have said that it was the Fed's own policies that are causing the ever-deeper systemic weakness in the US (and now global with all central banks going "all in") economy, which in turn forces the Fed to intervene even more aggressively in an attempt to counteract, in turn generating ever more economic weakness, leading to even more intervention, which is why every incremental episode of QE is larger and longer, and why the economic baseline is ever lower in the most perverse feedback loop of the New Normal. Now, it is once again Bill Gross to catch up to Zero Hedge and conclude just this in his latest monthly letter: "It’s been five years Mr. Chairman and the real economy has not once over a 12-month period of time grown faster than 2.5%. Perhaps, in addition to a fiscally confused Washington, it’s your policies that may be now part of the problem rather than the solution. Perhaps the beating heart is pumping anemic, even destructively leukemic blood through the system. Perhaps zero-bound interest rates and quantitative easing programs are becoming as much of the problem as the solution." Which is why there simply is no way out as long as Bernanke stays in.

Under their QE programs, the Fed sure has bought a lot of bonds. This has pushed down the interest rate. It's been quite a bull market. It's all good, right? People are making money, financing costs are low, and the deficit to GDP ratio is in check.

Not quite.