Archive - Jun 2013

June 27th

Gordon_Gekko's picture

The Great Comex Paper Gold Dump: Online Real-Time Physical Gold Price Datasource





With the Comex futures prices becoming increasingly irrelevant, a Physical Gold price datasource for buyers of physical Gold

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Citi: Are Gold And Silver Finding A Bottom?





Gold and Silver appear to be in the process of finding a bottom; however, the price action could continue to be choppy in the coming weeks. Ultimately Citi's FX Technicals group, as the following charts suggest, expect both precious metals to move much higher in the long term with the potential for Silver to be the outperformer, as was the case from 2008 to 2011.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Albert Edwards: "Marc Faber Is Right. QE99 Here We Come"





The bloodbath in the bond markets has led some 'greatly rotating' commentators to see this as the end of the long bull market (and the beginning of a lost decade for Treasuries); in fact, as SocGen's Albert Edwards notes, the financial wreckage left in the wake of Bernanke's taper talk has generated a lot of interesting commentary. But, he asks (and answers eloquently in this far-reaching anatomy of all-the-world's-views-on-what-the-Fed-is-doing) what if (as we have noted) tapering has nothing to do with the US economy having reached a sustainable take-off velocity? From Janjuah to Rosenberg, and from Wolf to Faber, Edwards explains how his Ice-Age thesis (lower lows and lower highs for nominal economic quantities in each cycle... with each recovery bringing a partial reversal to the process and each recessionary phase taking us to shocking new lows, both in bond yields and in equity multiples) is very much still in play (despite the risks that are evident) since governments will take the path of least resistance, which is to print their way out of this looming fiscal catastrophe. Marc Faber is right. QE99 here we come.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

The Two Big Summer Risks





The opiate of investors has been central bank liquidity. The degree of stimulus has been unprecedented. But, as BofAML notes, never was so much invested, by so many, on the view that the Fed would stay "behind the curve". It seems - based on gold, credit, bonds, and EM - that no longer can be guaranteed (despite the ongoing anti-Taper jawboning by every Fed head and mouth-piece). It is clear that liquidity withdrawal will not be painless and will sustain higher volatility and BofAML sees two big risks this summer - a market event and/or a macro event.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Day 5 Of The China-Open-Precious-Metals-Smackdown





Deja Deja Deja Deja Deja Vu... Gold (and silver) are legging lower once again as China's markets open. Spot gold just hit $1180 (down 2.5% from post-US-close highs). Given the state of the short-term funding markets in China, it seems possible that banks are liquidating any- and every-thing to realize cash (copper is also suffering modestly here at the open).

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Goldman's Anti-Taper Muppet-Baiting Presentation





With stocks experiencing their best 3-day run in six months, Goldman Sachs is quick to prepare the "use the recent downdraft to build toward their strategic allocation to equities" meme. In 16 pages of bright-and-breezy charts and commentary, Goldman interprets the Fed's (dovish) commentary, explains the dovish implications to buy stocks and risky debt, and throws cold-water on the fears of China. It appears we have nothing to fear but fear itself (oh, and a global marketplace experiencing near-crisis-level volatility and deleveraging) because it's all Goldilocks from here - as good is great, bad is good, and no news is absolutely bullish. Contrast this bonds bad, stocks good perspective with Jeff Gundlach's dismissal of the great rotation meme earlier.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Guest Post: Why The Status Quo Is Doomed





 

The wheels have come off the endless growth via expanding debt machine. Rising interest rates are the final blow to this agenda, and the political and financial classes have no Plan B. They are floundering, clueless, bereft of historical context, creativity and courage. Their failure of imagination is total, complete and catastrophic.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Student Loan Interest Rates On Verge Of Doubling





One of the main reasons the entire debt-fueled house of cards propping the western financial system, hasn't collapsed in a smouldering heap so far - a development that has stumped all those who think of the Reinhart-Rogoff sovereign debt matrix as one dimensinal with only debt/GDP as the key variable and completely ignoring the interest rate (manipulated or not) - is that the cash interest payment on the global mountain of debt has been rather tame, courtesy of all developed world central banks going all in with serial, or increasingly more, parallel monetization of debt. However, while the US Treasury has the benefit of the Federal Reserve (and its Primary Dealer tentacles) as a backstopped buyer of all the debt that's fit to print, individual Americans are not as lucky. And as America's massively overindebted student body may be about to find out, there is no surer way to burst a debt bubble than to send its rates soaring. Because unless Congress pulls off a miracle in the next 24 hours and passes legislation that delays an inevitable doubling of rates on the most popular Federal (subsidized) Stafford loans, the interest is set to double from 3.4% to 6.8%.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Silver Lining Shattered As European Household Lending Plunges Most In 11 Months





As excess reserves in Europe continue to fall, prompting some to claim this is positive since banks are "no longer hoarding cash," the reality of a dramatically deleveraging European financial system is far worse. As Goldman notes, lending to Non-Financial Corporations (NFCs) fell by a significant EUR17.2bn month-on-month (seasonally adjusted) in May (with a stunning 19.9% drop in Spain). Perhaps more worrisome, while NFCs have been seeing lower lending, households have been 'steady' for much of the last year - until now. Bank lending to households fell by EUR7.5bn in May. This marks the first material decline since July 2012. Simply put, the European economy (ad hoc economic data items aside) is mired in a grand deleveraging and since credit equals growth - and the ECB somewhat scuppered by a German election looming likely to hold down any free money handouts (and the fact that they cling to the OMT promise reality that is clearly not doing anything for the real economy) - with lending collapsing, growth is set to plunge further. As we noted previously, there is a simple mnemonic for the Keynesian world: credit creation = growth. More importantly, no credit creation = no growth. And that, in a nutshell is the entire problem with Europe.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

The Wall Street Pleasure And Main Street Pain Of Liquidity





Capitalists have rejoiced, although the workers have been notably less rewarded...

 

williambanzai7's picture

JoN CoRZiNe WaS a SCaM...





What a Boomer, what a screwer; What a Ponzi come-er true-er was he

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Guest Post: Secrets And Lies





Goebbels noted, "it thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State." But Goebbels has been superceded. Repression is so last century. Why repress when you can simply drown it out. All it takes is for the media outlets to be owned by a few powerful and like-minded friends. A few media moguls and corporate giants, whose plastic pundits raise their voices while the dolly bird presenters flash their thighs. It’s all so full throttle and frantic, and charged with desire and greed. Anyone who disagrees is a conspiracy theorist. Anyone who breaks ranks is a whistleblower and whistleblowers are domestic terrorists, dysfunctional loners with personality problems and axes to grind. When the truth is vilified, hunted, gagged and goaled, then the State has chosen to go to war with the nation.

 

govttrader's picture

A Primer For Interpreting Random Market Profiles And Reactions To Economic Data in US Treasuries





This a fairly broad topic, and any "rules" would be vague at best, so i'll use recent trading activity as an example.  Often markets (and traders) are described as schizophrenic...and perhaps that should even be part of the job description....here's an example why...

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Thursday Humor: Hockey Porn





For some, especially Bruins fans, it appears hockey is better than porn, but only until you lose the Cup... According to the people at pornhub.com, when the game ended around 11 p.m. ET, something funny happened. The people in Chicago were busy celebrating their second Stanley Cup in four years, so traffic stayed down. But in Boston? Obviously, it skyrocketed from people looking for a... relief.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Bonds Bid; Stocks Stall At 50DMA; Gold/Silver Shellacked (Again)





It seems the quarter-end rebalancing flows are showing up in bond-land - 10Y Treasuries were well bid again today (-6bps) for the best 2 days drop in yield in over 13 months. Stocks repeated the same pattern of the last 3 days - the best 3 days of the year - by ramping into the open and generally treading water for the rest of the day. Today, Dudley's comments popped the S&P 500 up to its 50DMA and that was the limit as we faded weaker from there and clung to VWAP amid dismally low volume. Credit markets underperformed notably from the open and while VIX closed down modestly, it also rose from the opening levels. The USD roundtripped from strength into the European close to end the day unchanged (up 0.6% on the week) but WTI did not care and surge higher touching $97 and up 3.3% on the week. Copper flatlined. So bonds and stocks (and oil) moving on moar QE hopes but - and (we are running out of superlatives so we will use 'shellacked') precious metals were smashed lower once again closing below $1200 and $18.50 respectively as QE hopes fade?

 
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