Archive - Jul 11, 2013

The last 12 days have seen the S&P 500 surge 7.5% - this is the fastest run since the co-ordinated global intervention that started Thanksgiving 2011. The overnight gap open never looked like being tested and volume remained average at best all day (until the 1400ET vert-ramp took us instantaneously above the previous all-time high close - running stops on the way - and pushing volume well 'below' average). Interestingly, the sectors did not enjoy the smash higher that the indices did and all pretty much trod water from open to close (with builders best all day). All indices are handsomely green from the 6/19 FOMC statement and only Materials and Builders are red (-1% from 6/19 FOMC). The same pattern was seen in gold, silver, copper, and bonds (overnight surge higher and then flatline for the day). The long-end of the TSY complex underperformed (-2bps vs 7Y -8.5bps) and as the stock indices exploded to highs, credit markets were not following along (and nor was VIX which dramatically diverged from stocks' exuberance).

Microsoft helped the NSA to circumvent its encryption to address concerns that the agency would be unable to intercept web chats on the new Outlook.com portal; The agency already had pre-encryption stage access to email on Outlook.com, including Hotmail; The company worked with the FBI this year to allow the NSA easier access via Prism to its cloud storage service SkyDrive, which now has more than 250 million users worldwide; Microsoft also worked with the FBI's Data Intercept Unit to "understand" potential issues with a feature in Outlook.com that allows users to create email aliases; Skype, which was bought by Microsoft in October 2011, worked with intelligence agencies last year to allow Prism to collect video of conversations as well as audio; Material collected through Prism is routinely shared with the FBI and CIA, with one NSA document describing the program as a "team sport".

Over the past few years we have attempted to show that most economic data are nonlinear and best studied by methods suitable for complex systems. Such systems are not easily analyzed using methods like linear regression or fourier analysis. In fact we would go so far as to say that such methods can lead you to the wrong conclusions. The world's situation is complex and changing. Change can drive unpredictable variations in market preferences--so while it would seem logical that people's preference for US dollars and gold might normally vary inversely, perhaps there are some circumstances when the market equally seeks both.

"Nothing in yesterday's remarks led us to question our view that tapering in September is coming, conditional on the data cooperating. To the contrary, when asked if he regretted mentioning slowing the pace of purchases recently, he stated that "notwithstanding some volatility that we've seen in the past six weeks, that speaking now and explaining what we're doing may have avoided, you know, a much more difficult situation in another time." Rather than push back against the way his comments were interpreted, the Chairman seemed to welcome the better alignment of the market's view with the Fed's view."

Congratulations Bernanke, you’ve created an even bigger bubble than that of 2007. Your latest statements about providing liquidity have destroyed completely destroyed your credibility as Fed Chairman. And they’ve bought you at most a brief pause before this whole mess comes crashing down.

Update: we have isolated the reason for the ramp. The latest stop hunt in the Stalingrad & Poorski 471 is attributed to the Chinese finance minister Lou who said that China H1 growth will be slower than 7.7%. Remember: the faster the global economy goes to hell in a handbasket, the faster global equities hit infinity.

Whoever said perfectly broken and centrally-planned markets were boring.

In this space we would normally insert a chart of the S&P500 here but that would just be waste of NSA spy server space: just imagine a flat line and then a sudden vertical spike higher to new all time record highs on absolutely no news.

There was a time when one couldn't spend an hour without some moronic rumor of a Radioshack LBO popping up. Those time are gone. Instead, as DebtWire reports, the rumor of a takeover has been replaced with the all too unpleasant reality of a corporate restructuring which may or may not end up in Chapter and which likely means the equity is all but wiped out. As DW reports the firm is set to listen to restructuring pitches from the usual restructuring suspects, which means unless someone is crazy enough to do another JCP-type deal (they aren't), the firm's debt is about to be substantially discharged. This usually means a full or at least partial wipe out of the equity tranche below it. "The move to hire a banker to explore a balance sheet fix comes as the struggling electronics retailer faces a string of maturities, escalating cash burn and bloated inventory levels, the sources said. RadioShack first engaged AlixPartners for operational help over a year ago, as previously reported by Debtwire."

The public furore over the closure of state TV in Greece will likely be nothing compared to the glaring similarities of the new Greek state TV to the Russian broadcasting channel of Mikhail Gorbachev. It seems the Russian influence in Cyprus has leaked into its close neighbor as the following two images suggest.

Reminiscing on the good ol' days when traders and investors poured over fundamental metrics, CNBC's Rick Santelli looks upon the current environment as a single-factor "Bernanke-loves-me, he-loves-me-not" un-reality and the impact he has on savers. "It seems a little bit ridiculous," he understates before launching into two minutes of clarifying thought on just what it is that Bernanke is doing and that we are suffering through. Just who is Bernanke working for?

Snowden Is a Traitor to the Political Elite … But a Hero to the American People

This week's final auction is over, in the form of a $13 billion 30 Year reopening, which like the previous 3 and 10 Years, was "good enough" but certainly nothing to write home about. The final yield of 3.660% stopped through the When Issued by 1 basis point so the market was mispricing the demand in the minutes leading up to the sale, however, the Bid to Cover of just 2.26 showed that not all was well under the sun - this was the lower BTC since August 2011, or the "debt ceiling" auction, and lower than both last month's 2.47 and the LTM average 2.57. The internals were in line with Indirects allotted 40.2%, Direct take down doubling from 8.5% to 16.3% and Dealers allocation dropping from 51.3% to 43.4%. Finally, following the past two auctions, the collateral squeeze in the bond market appears to have eased a bit on the short end with the 3 Year trading -0.02% down from -0.55% yesterday, although the 10 Year squeeze continuing still and trading special-er at -0.40% compared to -0.30% yesterday. How long until the Fed monetize all the Dealer allocated $5.6 billion in future POMOs? Keep an eye out on Cusip 912810RB6 in futures 30 year POMOs to see how much of this bond is promptly flipped back to the Fed.

We are confident the following amusing bill titled grandiosely enough "A 21st Century Glass-Steagall Act" (the Bill text here) by Elizabeth Warren, John McCain et al, to pretend Congress is not a bought and paid for by Wall Street marionette, will have a last minute rider that says "Compliance with any or all of the above provisions is purely voluntary."

"Our government tells us that this will be a better year. No one really believes them. But all we can do is be optimistic. Too many people are committing suicide."

Gold surged 3.3% or nearly $50 from $1,248/oz to $1,298/oz after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke admitted that the U.S. economy continues to need a highly accommodative monetary policy and will do for the “foreseeable future”.

Gold climbed for a fourth day to the highest level in more than two weeks due to safe haven buying after Bernanke also admitted, what many more realistic analysts have been saying for some time, that the 7.6% unemployment rate probably "overstates the health of the labor market."