Archive - Jul 18, 2013

As reported previously, the tech bellwethers all missed their topline revenue estimates, a trend that has so far marked the Q2 earnings season in a carbon-copy replica of what happened in Q1. This continued this morning with more misses by the likes of Verizon, Union Pacific, Baxter and Sherwin Williams: a core representative of virtually every key industry. But nothing shows the ongoing deterioration in top-line corporate generation as the following chart showing the annual change in revenues at the tech and industrial giant Intel. And while the consumer's distaste for desktop chips has been long known and duly noted, one would think that the Fed's central planning brains, Ferbus, Edo and Sigma, would need more i7-based processing power than ever to tell Bernanke with 3 significant digit accuracy just what will happen in 2022, offsetting the decline in normal end demand (as is the case with everything else surrounding central planning).

As Welt reported overnight, the ECB just announced a change to its collateral framework, changing the haircuts and acceptability rules for ABS and covered bonds in an attempt to boost moribund and stalled European lending. As part of its announcement, the ECB reduced haircuts applicable to ABS rated A- or higher to 10% from 16% and to 22% from 26%. The bank also cut the minimum rating for ABS subject to loan level reporting requirements to 2 "A" ratings from 2 "AAA" ratings as more and more credit in Europe sinks into the quicksand of NPL-ness. Draghi also announced he would tighten risk control measures for covered bonds and that all the announced changes would have an overall neutral effect on amount of collateral available. Will this latest Hail Mary attempt work to boost lending in Europe? Of course not: Europe's issue is not credit supply constraints but a deterioration in asset quality and an explosion in NPLs, which has lead to an acceleration in overall deleveraging at both the bank and consumer level, and which is unlikely to end any time soon and certainly not before more widespread liability liquidations a la Cyprus.

In a world where bad news is good, the last thing stocks needed to put a dent in the latest spin that the September taper may be moved to December, was an improvement in claims - which is what they got moments ago when the DOL reported a big claims drop from a downward revised 358K (so it does happen) to only 334K, beating consensus of a 345K print. So Taper back on right? Not so fast. The pre-spun narrative is that July data is very "liquid" with car makers and factories either laying off (or not) workers more (or less) compared to historical seasonal patters. Indeed, the unadjusted claims number rose from 383K to 409K signifying that the only improvement was in the eye of the X-12-ARIMA seasonal adjustment bemodeler. And furthering the No-Taper cause were continuing claims which soared to 3.114 million, up 91K from the prior week, the largest 1 week jump since November, and up from the 2.953 million two weeks ago: the biggest 2 week jump since February 2009. Judging by the stock market reaction, where futures have jumped on the news, the GETCO algos have shifted back into good news is good news mode. For confirmation, we will have to see the Philly Fed today, where we expect either a huge beat or huge miss to both be catalysts for fresh all time market highs.

Real, meaty analysis and ideas!

A few hours ago, in a somewhat ironic development, Russia's most prominent opposition campaigner - whom some have likened to the US' own Edward Snowden in terms of his whistleblowing aspirations - was found guilty of embezzlement and sentenced to five years in prison, some 19 months after leading the biggest protests to challenge the Kremlin's rule since the Soviet Union's collapse. This immediately hit none other than the local "wealth effect" with RIA reporting that "Russia's stock market fell sharply on Thursday according to Moscow Exchange data, after investors took in the news that opposition blogger Alexei Navalny had been found guilty in a controversial fraud trial and sentenced to five years in jail."

So, when it boils down to it what does it take to become a 1-percenter in the US? You know, one of the elite, the people with power.

As Japan's infatuation with the great nominal stock market experiment continues, the government wishes nothing more than to put the Fukushima nuclear disaster in the past, so it can restart its nuclear power plants: the critical, decisive factor if Abenomics has any chance of succeeding, as the country's economy will never recover if it has to rely on foreign sources of energy. Alas, for the time being this looks improbable and following the latest news out of Fukushima, it may be downright impossible. According to the BBC, the Fukushima nuclear power plant has been emitting steam from its destroyed reactor, confirming that while one can bury radioactive garbage under the rug, it continues to emit gamma rays and is likely to get much worse before it gets better.

• MSM always "ahead" of the curve: Fed’s Messages Raise Volatility in Threat to Profits (BBG)
• Bernanke Plays Down Link Between Jobless Rate, Fed Moves (WSJ)
• Draghi to Carney Face Test Backing Guidance on Rates (BBG)
• House Republicans Vote to Delay Obamcare Mandates (Reuters)
• China media accuses Japan PM of dangerous politics (Reuters)
• China will replace America as the leading superpower, global attitudes survey finds (SCMP)
• Nonqualified mortgages make up as much as $1.5 trillion of the $10 trillion home-loan market (BBG)
• Dell $24.4 Billion Buyout Plan Is a Nail-Biter as Vote Looms (BBG)
• Republicans could see more bruising Senate primaries (Reuters)
• GM delays Chevy Cruze debut by a year (Reuters)
• Peltz needs support for PepsiCo restructuring dealsa (FT)
• Sweaty Wall Streeters Skip Booze for Spin-Class Meetings (BBG)

Stocks in Europe recovered from a cautious start to the trading session and gradually edged back into positive territory, though the DAX index in Germany under performed following less than impressive earnings by SAP. Company’s shares fell around 3% after the company trimmed its outlook for 2013 software revenue, blaming slowing economic growth in China. Elsewhere, Akzo Nobel shares fell 5% in early trade after the company said that its Q2 net profit almost doubled from the same period last year thanks to the sale of its North American paints division and a tax gain. Going forward, market participants will get to digest the release of the weekly jobs report, Philadelphia Fed survey for the month of July and earnings report releases from Morgan Stanley, Verizon, BlackRock and Google. Finally, today is the second day of Bernanke's semi-annual testimony.