Archive - Jul 4, 2013

Since 1694 and the ensuing three centuries’ of Bank of England history, the base rate has never been this low (see chart). Draghi, emulated his fellow Goldman Sachs banker, Carney and kept rates at 0.5%. Ultra loose monetary policies involving record low base rates have been in place in the UK since March 2009, a lengthy 4½ years. In the Eurozone 0.5% record low rates have been seen since May this year. 

As the mainstream media shows endless scenes of celebration in Tahrir Square following last night's military ouster of democratically-elected President Morsi, the tensions with his supporters grows more widespread. Perhaps, what is more worrisome for the future of Egypt, which we noted last night was definitely on a path on instability, is the reaction of world governments - from "deeply concerned" America to Turkey's "unacceptable" perspective to Saudi Arabia's "congratulations" and Russia's "democracy is not a panacea"- it seems not everyone is behind the second coup in 3 years (but everyone is calling for calm as the middle-eastern turmoil ripples into their markets) but is a "setback for democracy."

Amid all the barbecues and fireworks today in the Land of the Free, it may be worth a short pause to remember the words of Thomas Jefferson some 237-years ago:  

"We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness."

"That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed,"

"That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness."

By Jefferson’s own standard, it seems rather clear that the government – most governments – have become destructive against their higher purpose: to safeguard the people’s liberty.

Today shouldn’t be a celebration... it should be a memorial service. Or at least a time to reflect heavily – when will enough finally be enough? When will it be time to act?

On the off chance there is still any confusion about what would happen should the Fed "step away"...

Confused what the (non) news of today's "unprecedented" forward guidance announcement by the ECB means? Shocked that the ECB is about as dovish as it has ever been? Then SocGen is here to explain, if only for all those who are seemingly stunned that the ECB isn't planning on hiking rates, or even "tapering" any time soon.

For many European leaders, the eurozone crisis demonstrates the need for “more Europe,” the final aim being to create a full-fledged political union. Given the continent’s history of war and ideological division, and today’s challenges posed by globalization, a peaceful, prosperous, and united Europe that wields influence abroad is surely a desirable goal. But major disagreements about how to achieve that goal remain. In short, all of the measures that would implicitly support political union have turned out to be inconsistent and dangerous. They have involved huge financial risks for eurozone members. They have fueled tensions among member states. Perhaps most important, they have undermined the basis on which political union rests – namely, persuading European Union citizens to identify with the European idea. It is this sort of pretense of knowledge that the economist Friedrich von Hayek denounced as a recipe for constraining freedom and ensuring economic mediocrity.

This weekend's epic indignation by Francois Hollande at the NSA, coupled with his laughable ultimatum for Barack Obama to stop spying, was almost good enough to mask the fact that none other than France has its own version of the NSA happily intercepting and recording every form of electronic communication. Almost. Overnight French Le Monde reported that "France, like the United States with the Prism system, has a large-scale espionage telecommunications device. Le Monde is able to reveal that the General Directorate for External Security (DGSE, special services) has systematically collected and spied on the electromagnetic signals emitted by computers or phones in France, as well as flows between French and abroad all our communications. Politicians are aware of this, but secrecy about the Big Brother operation is the rule."

Following BoE Carney's earlier dovishness, and purely by "coincidence" according to Draghi, the ECB has "extended forward guidance" on rates for the first time - once again changing rules and clearly indicating (in spite of his explicit comments that he is not) the ECB's reaction to Fed and BoJ instability introduced into markets. The OMT remains a ghost - but he promises its there if they need it - and negative rates are still on the table. All this jawbone easing (for critically nothing was said apart from no withdrawal of liquidity anytime soon) has sent markets surging higher on a US-market-holiday-induced low liquidity background...

The all important ECB press conference is set to begin momentarily. Will Draghi answer questions regarding the readiness of the OMT's use in Portugal whose short end has exploded this morning, or will he be forced to wait for the German court's decision first? Or maybe Draghi will finally have some comments on either the ongoing Monte Paschi scandal or the recently revealed Italian derivative debacle which took place under Draghi's watch. We somehow doubt it...

*DRAGHI SAYS ECB RATES TO STAY LOW FOR EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME
*DRAGHI: IMPROVEMENT IN FINANCIAL MARKETS SHOULD REACH ECONOMY
*DRAGHI SAYS INFLATION RATES MAY BE VOLATILE THROUGHOUT YEAR
*DRAGHI: RECENT TIGHTENING OF MARKET RATES MAY WEIGH ON GROWTH

Despite media rumors that the Portuguese foreign minister Portas, who resigned on Tuesday precipitating a complete collapse in Portugual bond prices and ushering in the latest European political crisis, has agreed to stay in the government as a Deputy PM and economy minister (nothing like some title inflation-pro-quo), things in Portugal are rapidly turning from bad to worse. To wit:

PORTUGUESE 10-YEAR BONDS DECLINE; YIELD RISES 14 BPS TO 7.60%
PORTUGUESE TWO-YEAR NOTE YIELD RISES 60 BPS TO 5.64%
PORTUGUESE 2-YEAR YIELD REACHES 5.66%, HIGHEST SINCE NOV. 20

The main reason for the collapse appears to be the near consensus developing this morning that no matter what the government does at this point, a second bailout of the small country is inevitable.

As largely expected, the ECB just announced that all three of its key rates remain unchanged.

At today’s meeting the Governing Council of the ECB decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.50%, 1.00% and 0.00% respectively.

The President of the ECB will comment on the considerations underlying these decisions at a press conference starting at 2.30 p.m. CET today.Since the announcement itself is never that exciting, attention as usual shifts to the 8:30 EDT press conference by Mario Draghi in which he will indicate, once more, just how non-existent the OMT's legal term sheet is, and thus how the European deus ex machine, the OMT, continues to be merely a jawboning-inspired mirage (even though Portugal will need it quite soon).

While it was not surprising that the BOE did nothing to change its rate or QE program, it was surprising (to some) that in the first official statement following the appointment of Goldman's Mark Carney as head of the Bank of England, the bank did mention that forward guidance and intermediate thresholds would likely be considered at the August assessment. Which, of course, is code for expect a major change in monetary policy. And now we also know the date, meaning that some time in August Goldman's latest central bank head will proceed doing what Goldman central bank heads do best: crush currencies in order to boost nominal, not real, returns and ensure another record Goldman bonus pool.

Given the US holiday, markets are likely to be thin today but there are some big news stories floating around at the moment.  If the fast and furious events from the past few days in a revolutionary Egypt bear a striking resemblance to what happened in the spring of 2011, it is because they are strikingly comparable. Only this time, following the ouster of yet another US-supported "leader" by the US-supported military, the country's CDS has normalized at a level that is roughly double where it was two years ago as the implicit backing of the US looks increasingly shaky, following what was yet another bungled foreign policy venture by the Obama administration. But for now, the people are celebrating, just as they did in 2011. One wonders what happens between now and the next coup, somewhere two years (or less) hence. For now focus merely on who controls the Suez - after all that is really all that matters for the US. The other major story of yesterday, Portugal, continues to be in limbo,

When Charles Ponzi was around, it took just a tad longer to rake in the cash and commit financial fraud, escaping with the proceeds to better climates. Today, the internet and the power of the virtual world have made the transfer of funds so much quicker.