Archive - Jul 2013

Following OAO Uralkali's decision to break up a 'marketing venture' that controlled around 43% of global potash exports, the world's largest producer is breaking the cartel that many US fertilizer companies have enjoyed. This move signals prices will weaken as the Russian company tries to grab market share shifting sales to its own unit. As Goldman notes, such behavior by Belaruskali in a structurally oversupplied potash industry should push for stricter competition for end customers and result in a significant swift decline in pricing to a level of marginal cost production. This slashing of margins has crushed the fertilizer stocks with POT, MOS, and AGU all down significantly in the pre-market."Uralkali’s announcement completely turns the global potash market upside down," noted one analyst. "If previously global potash producers were acting like an oligopoly, working with the rule that benefited higher potash prices over shipped volumes, now the market will be fully competitive." Shock, horror!

At a time when Spain is back in the limelight on account of its ever-sprouting corruption scandals, the government is trying to switch public attention to the prospect of impending economic recovery. Last Thursday, when the National Statistics Institute (INE) reported a 0.90 percent drop in the active population unemployment rate (down to 26.26 percent from the previous quarter’s 27.16 percent), Economy Minister Luis de Guindos assured: “Despite all the difficulties, today I am convinced that the worst is over and that the Spanish economy will leave behind the negative growth rates.” Mariano Rajoy’s government may, as its predecessor did, announce “around the corner” recovery to keep the population’s hope alive and dodge uncomfortable matters such as corruption scandals, but in reality the country’s trend is quite worrying.

Now that the previously reported "fine" of $400 million which the firm just got slapped with following its manipulation of various energy markets, is fact...

• JPMORGAN AGREES TO PAY $410 MLN TO SETTLE U.S. ENERGY PROBE

... One may say JPM has just admitted it is the next Enron. One would be wrong: "JPMVEC admits the facts set forth in the agreement, but neither admits nor denies the violations." In other words, JPM is a Schrodinger Enron: it admits the facts that the company best known for manipulating electricity - a charge which in 2000 was enough to crush the company, and which is now a fine equal to 0.4% of the firm's $99.5 billion in revenues - but neither admits nor denies this. But the biggest question plaguing Jamie Dimon this morning, is whether he will pay the $410 million FERC find with a personal check... or petty cash.

Far Dan Loeb, gold has finally lost its lustre: "If we finally see accelerating growth rates, yields should normalize from the unusually low levels we have seen recently. The playbook for investors in that scenario is to focus on assets that will benefit from US growth while avoiding investments that are hurt when real yields rise, such as gold, emerging markets, and fixed income – all areas where we have very little exposure today. Indeed, we sold our long-held gold position early in the second quarter at approximately $1,450."

• "Ooops": Barclays reveals £12.8bn balance sheet hole (FT), Barclays Bows to Pressure With Share Sale (WSJ)
• Bank of Italy Inspecting Top Lenders' Books (WSJ)
• Obama to propose 'grand bargain' on corporate tax rate, infrastructure (Reuters)
• China injects funds into money markets, quelling fears (FT)
• Berlusconi faces verdict that could endanger Italian government (Reuters)
• Shale Threatens Saudi Economy, Warns Prince Alwaleed (WSJ)
• Qatar Finds Revolution Abroad Not as Easy as Stock Picks (BBG)
• Cities Begin Hiring Again (WSJ) - not to mention filing for bankruptcy
• Big Question Hangs Over Small-Caps (WSJ)
• China Politburo Pledges to Press On With Restructuring Economy (BBG)
• Bank Revenues Surge on Trading Over What Fed Will Do (BBG)

While the market's eyes were fixed on the near record slide in Japanese Industrial Production (even as its ears glazed over the latest commentary rerun from Aso) which did however lead to a 1.53% jump in the PenNikkeiStock market on hope of more stimulus to get floundering Abenomics back on track, the most important news from the overnight session is that the PBOC's love affair with its own tapering may have come and gone after the central bank came, looked at the surge in 7 day market repo rates, and unwilling to risk another mid-June episode where SHIBOR exploded to the mid-25% range, for the first first time since February injected RMB17 billion through a 7-day reverse repo. The PBOC also announced it would cut the RRR in the earthquake-hit Lushan area. And with that the illusion of a firm and resolute PBOC is shattered, however it did result in a tiny 0.7% bounce in the SHCOMP.

What is at stake is illustrated by the difference in oil consumption between Asia and the West. The former, exemplified by China and India, is still increasing its consumption growth. The latter, basically the OECD, has been using less oil each year since the crisis began in 2008. This is unsustainable. The OECD’s deepening recession is evidenced by its falling oil use while the fragility of the export dependent and imported energy dependent East’s growth prospects suggests that its real growth rate is about to peak or already has. 

Yes. The national intelligence has fallen that far. The morons in West Philly can't spell 'Cat'. At least 75% wouldn’t know the Vice President of the U.S.. More than 50% can't add 5 + 5. And 80% wouldn't know when and why the Civil War was fought.

Investors have faith that despite the collapse in funding needs the Fed will not Taper anytime soon. Investors have hope that GDP will pick up in the second-half of 2013 (or worst case 2014 or 2015 or 2016) and that's what will drive 'real economy' earnings back from the brink. But most of all, investors today have an un-ending veneration of the P/E multiple-expanding solution to any- and everything in any way negative for stocks. There always seems to be some 'average', some forward-measure, some catalyst for multiples to expand confirming expectations of a round number for a nominal stock index in the future. However, as Morgan Stanley's Adam Parker notes, the humility-arrogance cocktail of forecasting multiples is becoming more troublesome as QE accounts for up to 2 turns for the overall market relative to 'normal' growth and rates.

As stocks hit new highs, politicians proclaim crises over, and oil prices leak back lower, it is all too easy to forget just what is going half-way around the world from the comfort of the American-Idolatry. This image of 'real' troops in 'real' Syria may jolt a few 'Call of Duty' players from their comas.

The mainstream media would have us believe that the U.S. economy must be in great shape since the stock market has been setting new all-time record highs this month.  But is that really true?  Yes, surging stock prices have enabled sales of beach homes in the Hamptons to hit a brand new record high.  However, the reality is that stock prices have not risen dramatically in recent years because corporations are doing so much better than before.  In fact, the growth in stock prices has been far, far greater than the growth of corporate revenues.  The only reason that stock prices have been climbing so much is because the Federal Reserve has been flooding the financial system with hundreds of billions of dollars that it has created out of thin air.  The Fed has created an artificial stock market bubble that is completely and totally divorced from economic reality. Meanwhile, everything is not so fine for the rest of the U.S. economy.

UPDATE: That didn't last long... 60% of the gains in the Nikkei and the weakness of the JPY now retraced - as the market cries out for moar bad data...

Following last night's admission that if central bankers get found out for monetization that it all goes pear-shaped, it seems tonight's epic miss in Japanese Industrial production and Household spending has done nothing but push the hordes of levered speculators into an "if-bad-is-good-then-terrible-is-awesome" buying frenzy. The 3.3% MoM IP drop (compared to a -1.5% expectation) is the largest since Feb 2009 (ex Tsunami) and among the largest MoM drops in the history of the data series. The miss is the largest in 2013 (since Abenomics began) and makes it 6 of the last 8 months missing expectations. Household spending shrank for the 2nd month in a row, missing expectations for the 3rd month in a row. Of course, being the well-trained muppets that they are, this data brings buyers into the Nikkei which jumped 180 points even as JPY gapped only around 30 pips weaker.

Imagine there was a time when bottled water didn't exist in our catalog of popular commodities. Perhaps the trend started in 1976 when the chic French sparkling water, Perrier made its introduction. There it was seductively bottled in its emerald green glass amongst the era of disco and the spectacle of excesses... who could resist right?! What could be more decadent than to package, sell and consume what most consider (in the western world) a common human right easily supplied through a home faucet! It’s absurd that the cost of designer water is at a "280,000% markup" to your tap water and it's reaching record heights in consumption.

When Detroit filed for bankruptcy, the city's demands for a Federal bailout promptly rose to the surface and then just as promptly dissipated following a polite but stern rejection by the president, almost too fast and without any fight, according to some. Or maybe that is only how it appeared. According to the NYT, Detroit's advisors may be looking at a completely different source of Federal "assistance" - a much more indirect one, even if at the end of the day, it is taxpayers who end up footing the bill. Obamacare.