Archive - Aug 2013

A flurry of Reuters headlines climaxing with:

WESTERN POWERS TELL SYRIAN OPPOSITION TO EXPECT STRIKE WITHIN DAYS - SOURCES WHO ATTENDED MEETING BETWEEN ENVOYS, SYRIAN COALITION
MILLER SAYS CHANCE OF U.S. STRIKE ON SYRIA ‘VIRTUALLY 100%’

has sent investors scrambling for cover and added war premia to risk assets. Gold is now up over 20% from its 6/28 lows to $1,418.90; WTI jumped to over $108.50 - its highest since early March - collapsing the Brent-WTI spread back to $4. S&P futures are at their overnight lows -12pts (as all-important AAPL loses the $500 level and Icahn's dreams); 10Y yields have slid to 2.76%; and the JPY is surging back to 97.50 as carry-unwinds escalate.

While the world is gripped in yet another great distraction over the great "will he, won't he" start World War III debate, things that are unsustainable remain unsustainable. Such as Japan's debt, and specifically the amount of cash interest that the nation with the 230% debt/GDP (and rising interest rates) will have to pay to service its gargantuan balance sheet. According to a document seen by Reuters, Japan expects to spend a record $257 billion to service its debt during the next fiscal year. The amount to be allocated for debt-servicing for the year that will begin on April 1 is nearly as large as the gross domestic product of Singapore, which the World Bank put at $275 billion at the end of 2012. More disturbing, this is a 14% increase in the debt interest cost in just one year. And yes, it is unsustainable absent an epic inflationary episode to "inflate away the debt", something that Abenomics has so far failed in achieving despite some hopeful early glimmers in crushing the Yen.

• Opposition figure: major decisions on Syria expected within hours (Al Arabiya)
• Syria challenges U.S. to "produce the evidence" that Assad regime launched chemical attack (CBS)
• British PM says world must act on Syria, weighs response (Reuters)
• U.S. Treasury to Hit Debt Limit in Mid-October (WSJ)
• U.S. could look beyond U.N. Security Council in any Syria strike (Reuters)
• Nasdaq, NYSE at odds on outage cause as SEC seeks facts (Reuters)
• Ackman’s J.C. Penney Sale Ends Failed Saga to Agitate for Change (BBG)
• Zandi, LaVorgna, Blinder, Rattner all is one con puff piece (BBG)
• Best Buy Founder Schulze Plans Stock Sale to Diversify Assets (BBG) - "diversify assets" = dump overpriced junk
• Zero Worship: Credit-Card Firms Compete With No-Interest Transfers (WSJ)
• Len Blavatnik wins $50m in JPMorgan lawsuit (FT)
• Danone Finds Yogurt’s All Greek as Oikos Chases Chobani (BBG)

As previewed extensively previosuly, Javier Martin-Artajo, one of the two JPMorgan scapewhales resulting from the London CIO prop-trading fiasco in which JPM used some $400 billion in deposit funding to corner the HY and IG CDS markets and then proceed to liberally redefine what a mid-market mark means, has been arrested.

BREAKING: Syria says will defend itself using 'all available means' in case of US strike.

— The Associated Press (@AP) August 27, 2013

Overnight the emerging market rout continued, with the India Sensex down another 3.18%, the Philippines tumbling 4%, Jakarta down 3.7% and Dubai crashing 7%. A driving factor continues to be the fear over an imminent air campaign launched at Syria, leading both WTI and Brent higher by 1%, and gold finally breaking out above the $1400 tractor beam, and printing at $1412 at last check, a hair away from a 20% bull market from the lows. In other news, the market is once again "surprised" to learn that Summers, who as we have been showing for over three weeks is the frontrunner for the Fed chair, is the frontrunner for the Fed chair according to CNBC. Of course, there is nothing preventing this from being the latest trial balloon (and nothing that suggest Summers will actually be hawkish as conventional wisdom seems to think: the guy basically works for the financial sector) but futures aren't waiting to find out, and US traders are walking in this morning to a red screen with ES down just over 10 point and sliding. Any minute now the great unrotation from stocks into bonds (10 Year was 2.77% at last check) is about to be unleashed. And if Obama actually goes to war (without talking to Congress of course), watch the bottom fall from the market.

After a brief and hopeful respite, the Indonesian Rupiah has collapsed by 3.9% in the evening's session - the biggest drop in 5 years. A close second is the Indian Rupee which has colapsed back from its best day in 11 months with a 1.5% plunge. EM bonds are being sold with India and Indonesia leading the way along with Thailand which just joined the bear-market crowd in equity land as its stock market is down 20% from May highs (down 9 days in a row - the most since 1998). Stock markets are all lower with India (banks -2.5% today and 35% from highs) and Philippines worst. Gold remains 'held' under $1400 as the USD (Asian Index) jumps to its highest in 14 months. Treasuries are modestly bid overnight (and US equity futures down slightly). Elsewhere, the Turkish Lira just hit a fresh record low against the EUR and India, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, and Philippines stocks are all down over 12% Quarter-to-date in USD terms.

US-Russian relations are rapidly going from bad to worse to hopeless. As if open public disagreement over Syria expressed in every possible venue and medium, and foreign policy in general was not enough, now the two countries' animosity has spilled over into private diplomatic affairs. Moments ago, AP reported that the State Department postponed a meeting, which was originally scheduled for August 28, with Russian diplomats on Syria this week to an indefinite future date. The meeting at The Hague was about setting up an international conference to find a political resolution to the Syrian crisis.

The ever-expanding role of government in healthcare provides an excellent example of Ludwig Von Mises’ warning that “The Middle of the Road Leads to Socialism.” Beginning in the 1940s, government policies distorted the health care market, causing prices to rise and denying many Americans access to quality care. Congress reacted to the problems caused by their prior interventions with new interventions, such as the HMO Act, ERISA, EMTLA, and various federal entitlement programs. Each new federal intervention not only failed to fix the problems it was supposedly created to solve, it created new problems, leading to calls for even more new federal interventions. This process culminated in 2010, when Congress passed Obamacare.

Once again we ask (rhetorically of course), just what is it that the-powers-that-be mean when they discuss "inflation"? As we noted a year ago, while the "ZIRP is the answer to all" solution has led to a rise in the price of almost everything that matters (and doesn't for that matter); one 'cost' stands out among the others (whether under Bernanke or Greenspan) - in the past 3 decades there has been no other cost that comes even remotely close to matching the near hyperinflationary surge in college tuition and costs.

It appears Mikael Charoze (remember him from the list of "people bringing you your daily does of 'currency manipulation'") is bright and early in the BIS' Hong Kong office delivering the daily dose of "sell" to gold futures markets everywhere. As JPY strengthens on risk-aversion among the carry crowd, Gold spiked up to its highest since June 7th (at $1,407.42)... but that cannot stand so it was smashed back down in an almost perfect replay of last night's price action back under the all-important $1400...

A study carried out recently by Nature Climate Change took a look at and analyzed past and present floods in the world and was able to predict the future floods that will take place concerning 136 cities.

Following John Kerry's press briefing, it appears the Obama administration seems absolutely determined to help radical Islamic jihadists that have beheaded Christians, that have massacred entire Christian villages, and that have pledged loyalty to al-Qaeda topple the Assad regime and take over Syria.  Yes, the Assad regime is horrible, but if these jihadist lunatics take control it will destabilize the entire region, make the prospect of a major regional war much more probable, and plunge the entire nation of Syria into a complete and utter nightmare.  This is setting up to become a colossal foreign policy disaster for the United States.

The total amount of Greek government debt outstanding has grown so much over the last 15 months that it has retraced over 60% of the 'haircut'-based reduction and has jumped a stunning 14.5% in that period. As KeepTalkingGreece notes, this is despite three years of strict austerity measures, incredible taxes and a debt haircut of 53% (~100billion euros in March 2012). As To Vima reports, Greek debt stands at EUR 321 billion, which is considerably higher than the pre-crisis levels of 2009. Is it any wonder that Merkel and Schaeuble have been forced to admit that a new bailout will be required? And how long before a 'new template' will be enforced?