Archive - Aug 2013

Day after day, CNBC's Rick Santelli hears analysts arguing how the economy is doing pretty well and that there is always some anecdotal fact that backs up their cognitively dissonant view with fundamentals. However, as Santelli asks (rhetorically), it always comes back to the same question, "if things are really that good, why do we still need the [Fed] training wheels on?" The answer is presumably obvious as actions ($85bn per month of POMO-provided liquidity to the 21 primary dealers) speak louder than analysts words (we promise recovery is just around the next corner.) While careful not to explicitly rebuff the exuberance of his channel's clients revenue-base, Santelli notes the oddly correlated relationship (that has time and again appeared in pixelated format on these very pages) between the Federal Reserve balance sheet and the ebbs and flows of the US equity market. As he concludes, the only (causal) transmission mechanism for the Fed's actions is via the primary dealers and implicitly the Fed is the entity that is goosing the stock market.

Just a few days ago on July 27th President Barack Obama said that the next Fed head had to consider average Americans when setting monetary policy. If only that were true.

We do not inhabit a “normal” economy. We live in a financialised world in which our banks cannot be trusted, our politicians cannot be trusted, our money cannot be trusted, and – not least thanks to ongoing spasms of QE and expectations of much more of the same – our markets cannot be trusted. At some point (though the timing is impossible to predict), asset markets that cannot be pumped artificially any higher will start moving, under the forces of inevitable gravitation, lower.

With revenues fading, profit margins collapsing, and only financial institutions' entire lack of transparency providing any lift in EPS, the 'great rotation' continues to provide enough cognitive dissonance to sink a boat for the asset-gatherers. The trouble, as we showed previously, is this 'rotation' is dominated by US retail investors (more specifically non-US domiciled and non-retail investors are rotating away from US equities). The US retail investor has shifted in a great-rotationary manner by the greatest amount since Feb 2000 - just as the last great bubble burst. US equities are the 3rd most over-crowded speculative long asset in the world after Crude Oil and the Brazilian Real. It seems the Fed is getting just what it wants but, just as Kyle Bass warned, "investors should be really careful doing what the central bankers want them to do."

Jeffrey P. Bezos to purchase Washington Post, Express, Gazette, other Greater Washington, DC papers -- deal valued at $250 million #breaking

— Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) August 5, 2013

Simply put, these four charts have to be seen to be believed. Presented with little comment, via Nanex, this is the 'market' we are supposed to trust...?

S&P futures volume was the lowest of 2013 for a non-holiday-related day (35% below last year's volume and 40% below recent average volume). NYSE volume the second lowest of the year. Tech and Staples managed small gains on the day but homebuilders and utilities underperformed as bond yields rose 3 to 5bps on the day. The 'anxiety' in stocks showed itself with another appearance of the Hindenburg Omen (which has signaled short-term weakness in the last six months). The Russell closed green and thanks to AAPL, the Nasdaq eked out a small gain. Trannies were down 0.8% in their now-ubiquitous schizophrenic manner as 'most-shorted' names outperformed significantly. The USD slid lower from the US open ending -0.1% (with JPY strength dominant) but commodities were worse down 0.5% (WTI) to 1% (silver and gold) on the day. VIX was clubbed lower (to 11.8% - its lowest close in 5 months) right at the close to ramp stocks into the cash close.

Are American workers paid enough?  That is a topic that is endlessly debated all across this great land of ours.  Unfortunately, what pretty much everyone can agree on is that American workers are not making as much as they used to after you account for inflation.  Back in 1968, the minimum wage in the United States was $1.60 an hour.  That sounds very small, but after you account for inflation a very different picture emerges.  Using the inflation calculator that the BLS provides, $1.60 in 1968 is equivalent to $10.74 today. According to the Social Security Administration, 40.28% of all workers make less than $20,000 a year in America today.  So that means that more than 40 percent of all U.S. workers actually make less than what a full-time minimum wage worker made back in 1968.  That is how far we have fallen.

While Europe, and especially Germany has been understandably "displeased" with having to provide billions in bailout upon bailout funding to Greece every year starting in 2010, all the more so following recent news that Greece has already spent some 75% of its bank bailout cash with no discernible improvement in its economy to show for it, Europes' taxpayers will unlikely be any more pleased to learn that as of the end of June, a whopping €60 billion in past due taxes (an all time record) was owed by Greek businesses and individuals to the state. This is an amount that is 20% greater than the entire external cash handed over by the Troika to keep Greek banks afloat, and represents nearly 30% of imploding Greek GDP.

So, somehow the US economy is roaring back in a big way? Hard to see. Over 70% of the economy is consumer spending. And spending is driven by incomes. And incomes are… falling.

The American Petroleum Institute said last week the U.S. oil and natural gas sector was an engine driving job growth. Eight percent of the U.S. economy is supported by the energy sector, the industry's lobbying group said, up from the 7.7 percent recorded the last time the API examined the issue. The employment assessment came as the Energy Department said oil and gas production continued to make gains across the board. With the right energy policies in place, API said the economy could grow even more. But with oil and gas production already at record levels, the narrative over the jobs prospects may be failing on its own accord.

With PMIs picking up across Europe, the nations' 'leaders' are spreading the good word that the worst is over (again) and its all sunshine and unicorns from here. But it's not. As Cyprus' Anastasiades glibly comments on small improvements in their capital controls - amid collapsing deposits, bluntly ignoring the reality of a record implosion in the nation's home prices, the facts for the man on the street are dismal. The number of jobless people in the smallest EU nation jumped 32% year-over-year to its highest in the 19 years data has been collected.

In 2001, the Patriot Act opened the door to US government monitoring of Americans without a warrant. It was unconstitutional, but most in Congress over my strong objection were so determined to do something after the attacks of 9/11 that they did not seem to give it too much thought. Civil liberties groups were concerned, and some of us in Congress warned about giving up our liberties even in the post-9/11 panic. But at the time most Americans did not seem too worried about the intrusion. This complacency has suddenly shifted given recent revelations of the extent of government spying on Americans. What is even more important, though, is for more and more and more Americans to educate themselves about our precious liberties and to demand that their government abide by the Constitution. We do not have to accept being lied to – or spied on -- by our government.

The bankruptcy of Detroit, though long-anticipated, has unleashed a wave of speculation about the health of other cities in the U.S., and indeed, in the world - for example, China. Despite the visible importance of urban centers and cities for thousands of years, it seems our understanding of their dynamics is still incomplete. Nonetheless, the dramatic decline of Detroit and other industrial cities makes us wonder if there are dynamics that we can identify that could enable us to predict which cities will thrive and which will decay.

Please do not worry...