Archive - Sep 19, 2013

• Bernanke Resets Policy by Doing Nothing as Markets Soar (BBG)
• Stocks Jump to Five-Year High as Metals Rally on Fed (BBG)
• Centre-left bigwig says hard to stay allied with Berlusconi (ANSA)
• J.P. Morgan 'Whale' Fine Put at Over $900 Million (WSJ)
• Banks’ $10 Billion Sweet Spot Sets Off Buying Spree for Lenders (BBG)
• Time to taper? Not if you look at bank loans (Reuters)
• Mortgage Lending Reaches 5-Year High (WSJ) ... and then plunges as Fed gives "all clear" for a few months
• Yellen Chances Grow as Obama Aides Test Senate Support (BBG)

For what it's worth, here is Goldman's Jan Hatzius with a Q&A on the Fed's announcement, which now sees the first tapering to start in December, QE to conclude (three months after their prior forecast), and expects the first rate hike to take place in 2016: 8 years after the start of the financial crisis: "We now expect the QE tapering process to start at the December 2013 FOMC meeting and to conclude in September 2014, three months later than before. Our baseline is that the first step will consist of a $10bn cut in Treasury purchases. These steps remain data dependent in all respects--timing, size, and composition. A change in the explicit forward guidance for the federal funds rate is also likely, probably at the same time as the first tapering step. Our baseline is an indication that the 6.5% unemployment threshold is conditional on a forecast of a near-term return of inflation to 2%, and that a lower threshold would apply otherwise. But there are also other options, such as an outright inflation floor or an outright reduction in the unemployment threshold. Our forecast for the first hike in the funds rate remains early 2016. The reasons are the large output gap, persistent below-target inflation, and some weight on "optimal control" considerations."

Yes, yes, only the Fed matters. Still, there was some event flow overnight which while completely meaningless for the epic liquidity bubble, may have some implications eventually when the music finally stops. In thie regard, perhaps the best summary of the the lunacy coming out of the Marriner Eccles building is the following sentence from Bloomberg: "Bernanke said he was concerned that market interest rates, driven higher by his own suggestion he would scale back QE, would curb growth." One can't make this up.

If there was any doubt whether fundamentals still matter (they don't, and in fact the worse the economic data, the better for risk) or what is the only driver of global performance (central-planners), they can all be put to rest following Bernanke's surprise announcement from yesterday which may have sent US stocks to record credit-bubble highs, and global asset soaring, but it also confirmed that the Fed literally makes up monetary policy as it goes along. As the recap below shows, a one-word summary of what has been bought this morning: everything.