Archive - Sep 25, 2013

For those of you who remember the months following the 2008 financial crisis, one of the most viral videos out there (it has over 2 million views) was the “Peter Schiff Was Right” compilation. It consists of various clips of Mr. Schiff being prescient about the financial condition of the U.S., as talking heads on various financial shows mock him and laugh in his face. Well, the “Peter Schiff Was Right Video Part Deux” is now out. In this case, pundits laugh at Peter’s insistence that there will be no taper and that it was all a bluff (they pull off the same bluff every year). It ends in classic fashion with Bob Pisani explaining to the dwindling audience at CNBC that “no one saw it coming.” It seems we’re back to that again.  The next crisis can’t be far off.

Starting by making his case for why he expects the world to have a new monetary system by the end of this decade, Mike Maloney follows on from Part 2 (where he noted the world does indeed appear to have a monetary system approximately every 40 years - with the current one 42 years old) exposing the developing serious stress fractures that are breaking. Whether it is countries repatriating their gold supplies, or creating bilateral trade agreements - these events are all deemed to be ‘Golden Nails’ in the coffin of the U.S. Dollar Standard. As Maloney says, similar to Stan Druckenmiller's recent views, "this is the great wealth redistribution ever," and understanding on which side to be on is critical.

The high priests of academic and “official” history love a good villain for two reasons:  First, because good official villains make the struggles and accomplishments of good official heroes even more awe-inspiring.  And, second, because nothing teaches (or propagandizes) the masses more thoroughly than the social or political lessons inherent in the documented rise and fall of the world's most despicable inhabitants.  We get shivers of fear and excitement when we discuss the evils and the follies of ancient monsters like Nero, Attila the Hun, Caligula, etc, or more modern monsters, like Mussolini, Stalin Hitler, Goebbels, Mao, Pol Pot, Idi Amin, and so on.  We take solace in the idea that “we are nothing like them”, and our nation has “moved beyond” such animalistic behavior.

"It's really just politics as usual," notes Mark Thornton in this brief perspective-giving clip that seemingly confirms the grandstanding idiocy of our politicians that Rick Santelli pointed out earlier. Thornton notes, "Congress has been acting irresponsibly for years," enabled by an always-willing-to-lend Federal Reserve that provides no incentive for fiscal responsibility (that a gold-standard could provide). Thornton also notes that despite the fear-mongery, "it's not really government shutting down," as 'essential features of government' will remain active.

When minimum-wage supply and taxpayer-funded demand collide, the naked truth comes out...

The Federal Reserve continues to cling to a destabilizing and ineffective strategy. By maintaining its policy of quantitative easing (QE) – which entails monthly purchases of long-term assets worth $85 billion – the Fed is courting an increasingly treacherous endgame at home and abroad. By now, the global repercussions are clear, falling most acutely on developing economies with large current-account deficits. But there is an even more insidious problem brewing on the home front - wealth effects are for the wealthy (as the Fed knows too well). QE benefits the few who need it the least. That is not exactly a recipe for a broad-based and socially optimal economic recovery.

Get on your bailout bikes and ride!

The Obamacare that consumers will finally be able to sign up for next week is a long way from the health plan President Obama first pitched to the nation. As Politico notes, millions of low-income Americans won’t receive coverage. Many workers at small businesses won’t get a choice of insurance plans right away. Large employers won’t need to provide insurance for another year. Far more states than expected won’t run their own insurance marketplaces. And a growing number of workers won’t get to keep their employer-provided coverage. But, apart from that - and all the exemptions - six more days and we will all get to see the shiny new exchanges; which may (or may not) prove Sen. Barraso right when he said "It was bad policy and bad politics. They got it wrong on all accounts."

Private prisons are antithetical to a free people. Of all the functions a civilized society should relegate to the public sector, it’s abundantly clear incarceration should be at the very top of the list. Jailing individuals is a public cost that a society takes on in order to ensure there are consequences to breaking certain rules that have been deemed dangerous to the happiness and quality of life within a given population. However, the end goal of any civilized culture must be to try to keep these costs as low possible. This should be achieved by having as few people as possible incarcerated, which is most optimally achieved by reducing incidents of criminality within the population. Given incarceration is an undesirable (albeit necessary) part of any society, the idea is certainly not to incentivize increased incarceration by making it extremely profitable. This is a perverse incentive, and one that is strongly encouraged by the private prison industry to the detriment of society.

Another year, another record low for the average verbal SAT score, and another sad achievement for a nation that is getting fatter, dumber and ever more in debt.

"Doing God's work" is not free. In fact, it seems that god is a firm believer in a year end bonus. Goldman CEO Blankfein just announced that his company survived because it was "stable" during the crisis and what the reason for that "stability" was:

• *BLANKFEIN: GOLDMAN WOULDN'T HAVE BEEN STABLE WITHOUT BONUSES

So... if taxpayer bailouts hadn't funded bankers' bonuses, which in the year after the bailout hit an all time high, all hell could have broken loose at the world's largest depositor-insured hedge fund. Just think how much higher employment and income growth could have been in that worst-case scenario.

Nothing to see here, move along... trade accordingly...

Another day, another POMO pump followed by a collapse to close at the the lows as the S&P 500 has its first 5-day negative closing run in 2013. Only the NASDAQ remains above Un-Taper levels with the Dow back below 'Summers' levels and the S&P heading that way. Treasury yields slid further (-4 to 5bps) to 7-week lows (down 10 of the last 11 days) as the 7Y broke back below 2.00%. Gold and Silver rallied (after the ubiquitous opening smackdown idiocy) with both positive on the week now. The USD sold off as JPY strengthened to the week's highs and EUR pushed back to unchanged on the week. WTI was slammed lower (in a seeming mirror of the PMs) ending back at $102.28 (-2.4% on the week) nearly 11 week lows. For the second day in a row VIX closed lower as stocks sold off (unwinding hedges and reducing underlying exposure perhaps?)

The last time the State Department issued a comparable worldwide terror alert, the majority of US embassies in the Muslim world were promptly evacuated and a few weeks later the Syrian false flag affair was unleashed upon the world. One wonders just what provocation John Kerry has in mind this time.

STATE DEPT ISSUES NEW WORLWIDE CAUTION ON TERRORIST THREATS; STATE DEPT DETAILS POSSIBLE THREATS IN EUROPE, ASIA, AFRICA

At least the evil terrorizers have not infiltrated the Arctic circle yet. As for the always convenient scapegoat:

STATE DEPT SAYS AL-QAEDA PLOTTING IN MULTIPLE REGIONS

They sure are: mostly in Syria, but luckily they are now armed with US weapons.

After a small bounce earlier in the month, Gallup's US Economic Confidence Index has slumped back to its lowest level in 6 months. Combined with record misses in UMich Confidence and the slide in the Conference Board's sentiment measures, it would appear the animal spirits are fading as reality hits once again...