Archive - Sep 28, 2013

Tyler Durden's picture

House Votes To Delay Obamacare By One Year; Checks To Senate Democrats - Shutdown 'Inevitable'?





On a rare Saturday session (now Sunday); in a not-too-surprising vote down party lines, the House has voted in favor of the continued-military-funding, medical-device-tax-repealing, Obamacare-delaying continuing resolution that keeps the government paid until December 15th...

*HOUSE PASSES 231-192 OBAMACARE DELAY IN U.S. SPENDING BILL

*HOUSE VOTES 423-0 TO FUND TROOPS IF GOVERNMENT SHUTS DOWN

Now it's off to the Senate and Harry Reid's 'over-my-dead-body' as the White House prepares for Government Shutdown.. (and/or veto) with little (or no) time to cobble together a last-minute deal.

 

EconMatters's picture

Tesla: Where Retail Investors Rushing in and Nest Eggs Cracking





Every year there seems to be a few momentum stocks defying logic, reality while bleeding all shorts getting in the way.  This year, Tesla Motor is one such stock. 

 

Tyler Durden's picture

The FBI Has Been Using Drones Domestically Since 2006





So about that whole drone debate in the USA... It seems the feds decided to simply skip over such a quaint notion and deploy them without telling anyone. Back in December of last year, the Electronic Frontier Foundation (EFF) detailed current drone flights in the U.S. That story was big news at the time, and it was particularly disturbing in light of the fact that Congress has cleared the way for the Federal Aviation Administration to allow 30,000 drones in the nation’s skies by 2020. Well it appears that the whole drone debate was over before it even began, with the FBI having used drones domestically for at least seven years.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Boehner: "House Votes To Keep Govt' Running"; US Troops Will Be Paid During Government Shutdown





Just like that, we are back to square minus one, with the House again punting to the senate:

  • HOUSE VOTES 231 TO 192 TO DELAY OBAMACARE FOR ONE YEAR, AVERT GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN
  • 2 DEMOCRATS VOTE YES, 2 REPUBLICANS VOTE NO
  • HOUSE UNANIMOUSLY VOTES 423-0 ON "PAY OUR MILITARY ACT" ENSURING TROOPS ARE PAID DURING GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN

As repeatedly reported earlier, the Senate will promptly squash said bill once again as it did with the defunding CR, in effect leaving essentially no time to cobble a deal together ahead of the the October 1 government shutdown.

 

Phoenix Capital Research's picture

Will We Have Another September Crisis





 

All told, there have been a total of 147 crises since 1970 in the world. September accounted for 27 of them, the single largest month.

 
 

Tyler Durden's picture

Charting The Bubble In Multiple Expansion





The equity market has discounted a large portion of any improved outlook that the always-optimistic sell-side strategists believe is just around the corner. As Barclays notes, we have just witnessed the largest two-year expansion of P/E multiples since the late 90’s. This 'bubble' of optimism, sparked by a repressive Fed policy, combined with historical valuation metrics that are above their long-term averages, implies a correction and a period of consolidation is likely to plague the U.S. equity market during the first half of 2014.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

As A Result Of Obamacare, Employer-Based Health Insurance Is Becoming Extinct





Barack Obama promised to fundamentally transform America, and when it comes to health care he has definitely kept his promise. As a result of Obamacare, health care spending is up, health insurance premiums are up, the number of hours Americans are working is down and employer-based health insurance is becoming an endangered species. Of course employer-based health insurance will not disappear completely any time soon, but it has been steadily shrinking for over a decade, and Obamacare will greatly accelerate that decline. So Americans are going to pay more, get worse care, have more paperwork and a more complicated system, and they are likely to die younger too? Wow, that sounds like a great deal.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Can Central Bankers Be Trusted?





Following the Fed’s surprise decision not to ‘taper’ its asset purchases this month, market participants feel misled. That’s hardly a surprise to UBS' Amit Kara who has long argued that central banks have limited ability to guide markets, given that their policies must adjust to hard-to-predict outcomes. Policy pre-commitment is an oxymoron, and central bankers who pledge ‘forward guidance’ do so at considerable risk to their credibility. In an inherently uncertain world, central bankers must adjust current policies to achieve those outcomes. That makes it impossible to pre-commit to a given policy, given that flexibility is required to respond to unforeseeable circumstances.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

The Great Tesla Rotation: From Institutions To Retail Bag-Holders





Two months ago we were the first to highlight the 'real' great rotation in US equity markets as so-called "professionals" were selling in size as "retail" was the big buyer. Since then, market breadth has been weaker and the new highs are made on the back of fewer and fewer supposed "cult" stocks (as Cramer so aptly put it before Lumber Liquidators started to crumble). Perhaps the most infamous of the "cult" stocks is TSLA. At twice the market cap of Fiat, needing to sell 537,815 cars to meet expectations, and the gap in GAAP, Tesla closed at all-time highs on Friday. So who is buying?

 

 

Tyler Durden's picture

House Rules Committee Meets On "Obamacare-Delay" Bill - Live Webcast





The sausage-making continues... "stop the madness" urge Dem. Nita Lowey, but once the committee has agreed, it's off to the floor for what the White House calls:

"A vote for the Republican bill is a vote for Shutdown"

Despite the House's bill claiming it is to keep the government funded... It seems do as we say or else is the new normal White House policy as the fear-mongery grows.

 

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Caption Contest: Golden Dusk





As we earlier noted, the leader of the third most popular Greek political party (pictured here) and a number of other Golden Dawn affiliates have been arrested. Whether guilty or not, the look of disgust on his face reflects well on the state of the world this weekend in general; as two of the three largest debtor nations in the world face massive political upheavals.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

"90% Odds of Government Shutdown" Democrats Warn





Following Nomura's estimate of a 40% chance of government shutdown yesterday, thanks to the pending vote for the Republican's "Obamacare-Delay" bill, Democrats note the odds of a shutdown of the government are now at 90%. A Democratic congressional aide added, "the only reason I’m not putting it at 100 percent is because nothing’s certain in American politics."  As we previously noted, this likely means the Fed will be flying blind at their next meeting with the BLS unable to "manufacture" jobs data for them to make their judgments.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

It's A PIK Toggle Credit Bubble, But "This Time It's Different" Says Moody's





Two weeks ago we first pointed out that as a result of the quiet creep in high grade leverage to fresh record high levels, the resurgence in PIK Toggle debt for LBOs and otherwise, means that the credit bubble is now worse than ever and that the next credit crisis will make 2007 seem like one big joke. Recall that nearly 80% of PIK issuers made a PIK election during the last downturn, "paying" by incurring even more debt and in the process resulting in huge impairments to those yield chasing "investors" who knew they were going to lose money but had no choice - after all, the "career risk." Subsequently, we quantified the explosion in covenant-lite loans - another indicator of a peak credit bubble market - as nearly double when compared to the last credit bubble of 2007 (whose aftermath the Fed, with a $3 trillion larger balance sheet, is still struggling to contain).

 

Tyler Durden's picture

The Next 3 Years





This is at a time when we have real economic growth barely above 2% and nominal growth of just over 3% (abysmal by any standards) after six years of monetary easing and 5 years of QE1; QE 2; Operation twist; QE “infinity” and huge fiscal deficits. After last week Citi notes it is not clear that this set of policies is going to end anytime soon. It seems far more likely that these policies will be continued as far as the eye can see and even if there are “anecdotal” signs of inflation this Fed (Or the next one) is not a Volcker fed. This Fed does not see inflation as the evil but rather the solution. Gold should also do well as it did from 1977-1980 (while the Fed stays deliberately behind the curve). Unfortunately Citi fears that the backdrop will more closely resemble the late 1970’s/early 1980’s than the “Golden period” of 1995-2000 and that we will have a quite difficult backdrop to manage over the next 2-3 years.

 
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