Archive - Sep 5, 2013

What perhaps Minsky couldn’t conceive of was the point at which debt, deficits and interest rates would go to such extremes that the creation of credit itself, which was and remains the heart of capitalism, would be threatened. No longer might the seventh inning stretch lead to a Coke, some “Cracker Jacks” and the resumption of the old ballgame. Instead, zero-bound interest rates and debt/GDP ratios in a majority of capitalistic economies would begin to threaten, not heal, the nature of finance and investment in the real economy. Investors, leery of not only overleveraged investment banks such as Lehman Brothers, but overextended countries such as Greece, Cyprus and a host of Euroland lookalikes would derisk as opposed to rerisk as per the Minsky model. As well, with interest rates close to the zero bound, investors in intermediate and long term bonds would become dependent on Big Bank to do their bidding. When that QE buying power became jeopardized via tapering and the eventual ninth inning conclusion of asset purchases, then the process of maturity extension and the terming out of historically modeled corporate lending was prematurely threatened.

Just when the market thought it had priced in a new equilibrium without (or with - it is not quite clear) a Syria war, here comes Thursday with a data dump that will make one's head spin. Central bankers are once again on parade starting overnight, when the BOJ announced no change to its QE program and retaining its monetary base target of JPY270 trillion. The parade continues with both the BOE and ECB, the latter of which is expected to address the recent pick up in Eonia rates and take praise for the recent very much unsustainable "recovery" in the periphery even as Germany continues to slide lower (this morning's factory orders plunged 2.7% on exp. -1.0%), which in turn lead the Bund to pass above 2.0% for the first time since March 2011. Speaking of bonds blowing out, the US 10Y is now just 6 bps away from 3.00%, the widest since July 2011, and likely to breach the support level, taking out a boatload of stops and leading to the next big step spike in rates as the second selling scramble ensues. And just to keep every algo on its binary toes, today we also get a NFP preview with the ADP private payrolls at 8:15 am (Exp. 180K, down from 200K), Initial Claims (Exp. 330K), Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs (Exp. 1.60% and 0.9%), Factory Orders (Exp. -3.4%), Non-mfg ISM  (Exp. 55), Final Durable Goods, EIA Nat Gas and DOE Crude Inventories, oh and the G-20 meeting in St. Petersburg where Putin and Obama are not expected to share much pleasantries, and where John Kerry's swiftboat may not be allowed to dock.

Qatar has enough natural gas to make every citizen of the country wealthier than any other in the world. Sheikh Tamim bin Khaifa Al Thani, the Emir of Qatar is a new ambitious determined leader that plans to make Qatar a prominent country in the world.

Today we present the Target2-system and the fiscal bail-out facilities in our series on European efforts to bail out itself. For new readers, check out part 1 here http://bawerk.net/?p=123

UPDATE 2: And there go the precious metals... with their ubiquitous 'opening' slamdown...

UPDATE 1: US Treasuries are now rallying urgently back from the edge as European markets awake (and the EUR slammed)... what else would one expect on ECB/BoE day?

The exuberance of the US day-session has flopped into the evening and Asian stocks, buoyed by a plunging JPY and the carry-mob is on a charge once again. USDJPY just broke back over 100.00 for the first time since July 25th managing to lift the Nikkei almost 1000 points since Friday's close. Most Asian stocks are higher (India +2.6%) but FX is more varied with the Rupiah, Baht, and Ringgit lower still as the Rupee strengthens modestly (as forwards compress too). The USD is bid against the majors with EUR cracking lower. The tale of the night though is US Treasuries which have slammed higher in yield once again. The spread between 5Y Treasuries and 30Y has plunged over 30bps in the last month and now hovers just above 200bps - its lowest in 13 months. This bear-flattening (belly and short-end is underperforming notably overnight) has driven the market's implied 10Y rate for year-end over 3% for the first time since July 2011. The entire forward curve of the Treasury complex is repricing higher in rates as 'absolute' NIM expectations drop.