Archive - Sep 2013

First it was Jefferies. Then Citi. Now it's Deutsche Bank's turn:

JAIN EXPECTS 3Q DEBT TRADING REV. TO DECLINE `SIGNIFICANTLY'
JAIN SAYS CB&S AFFECTED BY MARKET ENVIRONMENT
JAIN SAYS 3Q TRADING RESULTS DIDN'T BENEFIT FROM CATALYST
JAIN EXPECTS TO TAKE ADDITIONAL LITIGATION RESERVES

Stock promptly plunges because nobody could have possible foreseen this...

In a new letter to Congress, the political rhetoric is on the rise as Treasury Secretary Lew warns:

• *LEW SAYS EXTRAORDINARY MEASURES EXHAUSTED NO LATER THAN OCT. 17

Adding that results could be catastrophic if the US government is unable to pay its bills, he warned that any attempt to priotize payments would "Default by another name."

Confirming, once again, that without fail Wall Street executives tend to have irreconcilable sociopathic tendencies in addition to delusions of grandure, AIG's Bob Benmosche found himself promptly under fire from all sides following his interview with the WSJ (reported here) in which he said that outrage over banker bonuses "was intended to stir public anger, to get everybody out there with their pitch forks and their hangman nooses, and all that - sort of like what we did in the Deep South. And I think it was just as bad and just as wrong." There were two main differences: this time around, to pretty much everyone's disappointment, there were no actual lynchings or even anyone going to prison. But more importantly, racial hatred and lynchings in the "deep south" were generally irrational and without reason, which is certainly more than can be said about a banker uberclass that would not exist if it wasn't for taxpayers saving their ungrateful offshore bank accounts. In other words, the hatred at the likes of Benmosche is certainly warranted. Which, together with Elijah Cummings promptly demanding his resignation, is why in less than a day the CEO found himself apologizing for a "poor choice of words."

Moments ago we got the latest confirmation the much delayed capital expenditures corporate spending spree - aside for airplanes ordered on spec of course - just refuses to arrive.

Various Greek leaders have proclaimed the worst over for the desperately troubled nation. The basis for that optimism - a primary surplus - however is being brought into doubt by none other than the Troika (the overseer of the bailouts). As ekatherimini reports, the troika has doubts about Greek projections for a primary surplus this year and next and has begun the process of discussing with Athens the contents of the 2014 budget. Skeptical of Greek projections of a 1.5% of GDP primary surplus this year, it is also ironic that the Greek leaders themselves are downplaying the size of the surplus for fear that handouts will sour. All-in-all, it seems, Greek data (in light of the extreme unemployment) is anything but trustworthy - especially in light of further doubts over the effectiveness of the unified property tax.

There are facts; then there are completely fabricated, made up numbers. And then there is Chinese "data." After having been exposed in the past several years countless times on these pages alone as being absolute manipulated propaganda hogwash, it is amazing that anyone, anywhere still believes anything to come out of the official Beijing mouthpiece, which merely adjusts a few variable cells in the big central planning goalseeking excel spreadsheet and reports the answer. Yet the recent myth of a China "rebound" is one of the factors why stocks recently hit fresh all time highs: forget all that stuff about a CNY1 trillion deleveraging (yes, China's credit bubble is still the biggest in the world) - all that matters is made up garbage. Well, it may be more difficult this time. As Bloomberg reports, a "Beige Book" survey of the Chinese economy conducted in late August showed that "China’s economy slowed this quarter as growth in manufacturing and transportation weakened in contrast with official signs of an expansion pickup, a private survey showed." Surprise: China was lying again.

• JPMorgan eyes $4bn ‘pay for peace’ deal (FT)
• Prosecutors Pursue Big SAC Settlement (WSJ) - in the US if you are rich enough, no crime is bad enough
• Cruz's Defiant Stand Is Also a Lonely One (WSJ); Texas senator speaks for more than 14 hours (FT)
• Iran Applies Brakes to U.S. Mideast Plans (WSJ)
• Americans in Poll Doubt Economy Rebound in Defiance of Forecasts (BBG)
• Big Banks Cut Basel III Shortfall by $112 Billion at End of 2012 (BBG) - the equivalent of 10 bridges to the Kalahari desert
• Obama’s Jabs at Russia on Syria Shows Diplomacy Tensions (BBG)
• ICAP Staff Face Criminal Charges Tied to Libor  (WSJ)
• Alibaba Is Said to Shift Target for I.P.O. to U.S. From Hong Kong (NYT)
• Home gold rush is over (Reuters)
• Conoco in landmark Alaska drone flight (FT)

Early weakness in Asia driven by US-follow thru selling and ongoing concerns about the us fiscal showdowns as well as the debt ceiling, if not by actual news, resulted in a red close in both the Nikkei and SHCOMP, as well as other regional indices such as the Sensex. This then shifted to Europe, where however stocks reversed the initial move lower and are seen broadly flat, with Bunds remaining bid on the back of month-end, as well as coupon and redemption related flows. However the move higher in stocks was led by telecommunications and health care sectors, which indicates that further upside will require another positive catalyst. There was little in terms of fresh EU related macroeconomic commentary, but according to a report published by the European Banking Authority, the EU’s biggest 42 banks cut their aggregate capital shortfall with respect to the “fully loaded” 2019 Basel III requirements to €70.4bln as of December 2012. This is amusing since not one European bank has actually raised capital, but merely redefined what constitutes capital courtesy of a liberal expansion of RWA, Tier 1 and various other meaningless definition which works until such time as the perilous European balance kept together by the non-existent OMT, is tipped over.

When we pointed out AIG CEO Benmosche's somewhat disconnected-from-reality comments comparing banker-treatment to lynchings of black people in the deep south, we suspected there would be fallout. Sure enough, none other than Rep. Elijah Cummings (among the leading investigators into the 2008 excesses that led to AIG's bailout) has called for Benmosche to "resign his position as CEO immediately." Cummings stated: “As the leading critic of AIG’s lavish spending before and after its taxpayer funded bailout - and as the son of sharecroppers who actually experienced lynchings in their communities - I find it unbelievably appalling that Mr. Benmosche equates the violent repression of the African American people with congressional efforts to prevent the waste of taxpayer dollars..." We await the "...out of context..." retractions tomorrow...

Goldman Sachs is once again predicting that gold will fall, setting a new near-term target of $1,050. Never mind the schizophrenic gene that would be required to follow the constantly fluctuating predictions of all these big banks. Sure, the too-big-to-fails can move markets - but they say things that are good for them, not us. As an example, while Goldman Sachs was telling clients and the public to sell gold in the second quarter, they bought 3.7 million shares of GLD and became the ETF's 7th largest holder. When we visited China, guess who no one was talking about? Goldman Sachs. Since January 1, gold ETF holdings have fallen by roughly a quarter (26%, according to GFMS). But Chinese housewives aren't refraining from buying and certainly aren’t selling...

Back in April, in a desperate scramble to raise liquidity courtesy of a hail mary Goldman syndicated term loan, we penned "Confused By What Is Going On At JCP? Here's The Pro Forma Cap Table And The Cliff Notes", where in addition to the obvious - that this is merely buying a few months for the melting icecube company which with every passing day is closer to a Chapter 11 (or 7) bankruptcy filing - we also laid out that what Goldman was doing was merely positioning itself to be at the top of the company's capital structure with a super secured and overcollateralized credit facility, through what is effectively a pre-petition DIP...  As it turns out we only had to wait for five months before the same Goldman that raised the company's emergency liquidity term loan turned around and launched a vicious attack on the same company that paid it millions in dollars in underwriting fees. Specifically, what Goldman just did is write a report (perhaps one of the best bearish cross-asset investment theses we have seen to come out of the firm in a long time) in which it laid out, in a lucid and compelling manner, why JCP is doomed. The report is titled appropriately enough: "Initiate on JCP with Underperform: Looking for cash in the name"... and not finding it.

While some have argued that the Fed is flying blind, given their endless efforts to convince the market that their actions (or inactions) are now all data-dependent - what happens when that data simply does not exist? As SMRA notes, the official word from the BLS is that they are working under the assumption that there will not be a government shutdown and the employment data will be released as scheduled; but what happens if the un-negotiation reaches beyond October 1st? How will our central-planners know what to do?

Yesterday we highlighted the plight of Tom Palome and his cohorts as they face a need to work well into once-thought-retirement age. However, there are hundreds of formerly prosperous communities all over America that are being steadily transformed into rotting, decaying hellholes. The good paying middle class jobs that once supported those communities are long gone, and they have been replaced with low paying service jobs if they have been replaced at all. When you visit those communities, it is almost as if all of the hope has been sucked right out of the air. The following are 20 quotes from ordinary Americans about the economic despair that is rapidly growing around them.

Goldman, in line with consensus and PaddyPower, now expects the President to nominate Janet Yellen to be the next Federal Reserve Chair and despite comments yesterday from thw White House, they expect the announcement to come soon. However, this week's political calendar may be too crowded to make an announcement. Assuming a government shutdown is avoided, an announcement could come as soon as early next week; but they note the President's schedule may force an announcement to the following week. The risk of a failed confirmation vote appears very low to them but with the debt ceiling debate and concerns over delays due to fears over asset-purchases, Yellen may not be confirmed before the December FOMC meeting. The following Q&A answers most of the critical questions.

When it comes to the "fairness doctrine", there was always some confusion in the matter of work ethic: how was it fair that some should work under the socialism-endorsed confines of a 29.5 hour workweek, while being forced to suffer the indignity and moral denigration of watching others labor under the faux guise of capitalism, putting in 60, 80, even 100 or more hours per week in the pursuit of self-actualization, contentment and general happiness? Furthermore, as has been well documented, despite rumors the contrary, the biggest incubator of neosocialism the "fairness doctrine" is not the US, nor Leningrad (sic), but France.... Sephora's flagship Champs Élysées cosmetics store, one which attracts six million people a year or nearly as many as the Eiffel Tower, has been ordered by a French appeals court to close at 9 pm at the latest because it "breached work-time regulations by hosting customers until midnight on weekdays and 1 am on weekends."