Archive - Sep 2013

A few years back Chairman Bernanke was asked by a financial reporter how confident he was that the Fed could easily start the process of withdrawing from the accommodation of “unorthodox” monetary policy. Some might argue (ourselves included) that the answer 'should' be something like “very confident” or “We feel we have the right tools and the right people to manage that process”. Instead the answer given was “100%”. At last week's press conference, Chairman Bernanke, in CitiFX Technicals' view, looked like the “cat that got the cheese", despite the more downbeat message he was giving? Why? Because he got his way. In their “conspiracy theory” interpretation it is likely that Janet Yellen’s nomination will indeed be announced in the near future and that tapering is now firmly back off the table despite the guidance given in recent months to the contrary. Bonds seem to agree (so far).

A corporate culture that allows wasteful spending engenders fraud, corruption and systematically destroys shareholder value.

When Obamacare was thought up it was more than just a presidential pledge to woo the poverty-stricken Americans into believing (and voting) that healthcare should be provided for all and sundry and that any Tom, Dick and Harry could get through life by being provided for by the state.

CNBC just aired a fascinating segment that pitted anchors Mandy Drury and Brian Sullivan (squarely in the markets-are-going-up-and-the-world-must-be-rosy camp) against a more skeptical Herb Greenberg and an awfully fact-based reality agent - Peter Boockvar. Well worth taking the time to witness the cognitive dissonance of believing the market strength is unrelated to the Fed and yet a Fed unable to Taper even a few billion for fear of repercussions... as Boockvar notes, "there is 0% chance this ends well."

For those willing to share in the next few hours of defund-Obamacare discussion from Senator Ted Cruz (tag-teaming a little with Rand Paul) as he talks his way through the night (having started at 2:41pm ET) - ending only when he is "no longer able to stand," or the 15-hour Senate floor limit; the following link provides the blow-by-blow (water works and all).

Despite President Obama's heavy focus on Iran in his speech this morning, a potential encounter at the UN (like ships passing in the night?) between the US President and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani failed to take place. Iranian officials indicated that "it was too complicated," and "there will be no meeting." As Reuters reports, the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told reporters that Obama had been open to a meeting with Rouhani while both were in New York for U.N. activities but the Iranians were not ready to have an encounter at the presidential level. The good news - following Rouhani's speech decrying external intervention and use of drones - John Kerry will meet with his Iranian counterpart - that should end well.

We listened to President Obama with bated breath... one wonders how many times President Rouhani will mention the US...

*IRAN POSES NO THREAT TO THE WORLD OR REGION, ROHANI SAYS
*MOVE TO REDRAW POLITICAL BORDERS DANGEROUS, PROVOCATIVE: ROHANI
*IRAN IS A HARBINGER OF JUST PEACE AND SECURITY, ROHANI SAYS
*ROHANI CRITICIZES VIOLATIONS OF PALESTINIANS' RIGHTS

*USE OF DRONES TO FIGHT TERRORISM SHOULD BE CONDEMNED: ROHANI

"I knew of the Fed decision and growth forecasts around 5-6 minutes before 2 pm last Wednesday, even though I was not there. I work at a news organization represented at the Fed statement “lockup” and the Bernanke press conference last week. This was in no way secure the way the Labor and Commerce Department lockups are. Those in the Fed statement lockup were able to communicate by text message and email after they received the statements and before 2 pm. Those in the room awaiting the press conference also were able to communicate electronically after the received the statement, several minutes before 2 pm. Everything was honor-based, but anyone in their respective newsrooms could have gotten the information early from them and passed it on. Given the large number of reporters involved, there are many ways the decision could have gotten into the market several minutes before the announcement. I am truly surprised it was only seen in gold trade.  The fact is, though, the Fed made it possible for many people to leak it."

Bonds were sending very different messages from stocks from shortly after the open (when POMO began) and never looked back. As Homebuilders surged in their HIMO way squeezing everyone yet again, stocks surged back above the crucial 1,700 level in the S&P and VIX was pressured lower... but bonds kept falling in yield. Some said - stocks were rallying on Obama's friendly tones (umm no - oil up and safety bid for TSYs?). EUR weakness drove the USD higher on the day and despite the ubiquitous opening smackdown in precious metals, Gold and Silver ended the day almost unchanged. The belly of the Treasury curve plunged below the FOMC-kneejerk low yields to 7-week lows - with yields down 20-25bps from the FOMC statement (gold still higher and stocks lower). The 4th down day in a row for the first time in 5 weeks with heavy volume into the close as the S&P ended near cash-lows (though the market went apoplectic in the last minute).

There is nothing more to say...

Despite the 'support' of the G-20 and the self-deceiving belief that Japan is 'not' manipulating its currency; 60 US Senators appear confused. In a letter to Treasury Secretary Jack Lew and Trans-Pacific-Partnership Trade Rep Michael Froman, the Senators demand they "address one of the 21st century's most serious trade problems: foreign currency manipulation." In order to ensure any agreements meet the "high standards" that America's workers deserve, Lew and Froman are directed to include "strong and enforceable disciplines," for any currency manipulations. Cue Abe protestations at US policy...

The point here is that we can only sustainably distribute the nation's surplus that is left after capital investment. Borrowing or creating vast sums of money to paper over the fact that we're spending more than we generate in surplus fosters an entirely illusory sense of wealth and prosperity. Eventually the interest owed on debt crowds out all other spending, and the debt-based system implodes. Borrowing money to fill the gap between what we want to spend and what we generate in surplus incentivizes fraud and speculation and creates a pernicious sense of entitlement: we can have it all, everyone can have everything they want, and there is no need for sacrifice, thrift or hard choices.

"When you start seeing a slowdown, that's a reason to believe it's going to accelerate," is how Bob Shiller responds to a question of the slowing rise in home prices. While Cramer demands we focus attention of the 'earnings' of the homebuilders and what they are saying, Shiller prefers to look at the data. The always pragmatic professor notes he is "not worried about a slowdown" because he is "more worried about bubbles" that appear to be back in the US housing market. "In some cities it's looking bubbly now," Shiller adds, remarking on the fundamental speculative shift in homeownership to the hedge funds on the own-to-rent bandwagon (that we noted last night appears to be coming to an abrupt end for the smarter money). The biggest drivers of future gains, Shiller adds, are 'recent gains' (which are fading), and employment (which is awfully slow) suggesting "there might be a slowdown ahead."

While a mortgage-related lawsuit and/or a settlement was long in the making, and was well-known to most in the industry, it is the monetary aspect of the resolution that is slowing down the outcome. Because if the NYT is correct, not even taking credit for all its fake "earnings" in the form of a complete reserve release would save JPM: "Underscoring the breadth of the scrutiny, the people said, JPMorgan and the Department of Housing and Urban Development briefly discussed the possibility of striking a wide-ranging settlement to conclude many of the looming mortgage investigations from federal authorities and state attorneys general. But the housing agency floated a price tag of about $20 billion for the settlement, the people said, effectively derailing settlement talks with JPMorgan lawyers, who were stunned by the size of the proposed penalty and expected to pay a fraction of that sum."

As if you needed any more evidence of how disconnected, entitled, irrational and sociopathic the heads of financial firms in America are these days, along comes AIG’s CEO Robert Benmosche to dispel any lingering doubts. In a highly disturbing interview with the Wall Street Journal, Mr. Benmosche compares the murder of black people in the deep south based on racial prejudice and hate to the vast majority of Americans expressing disgust with the fact that Wall Street decided to suspend capitalism when it was in their best interests in order to give themselves trillions of dollars. He actually compares an environment where the rule of law was often completely suspended to allow the murder of a disenfranchised racial group, to widespread public anger about the suspension of the rule of law to benefit the wealthiest, most connected people in the nation.