Archive - Sep 2013
September 30th
BofAML Warns "Risk Off" To Continue This Week
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/30/2013 07:25 -0500
Across asset classes, BofAML warns that financial markets suggest that this week will see a continuation of the risk off theme from last week. The breakout in the VIX says that investor anxiety wiil remain elevated, particularly as the S&P500 remains on track to test 10 month trendline support at 1657. In such an environment, safe havens such as US Treasuries should benefit with a target 2.544%/2.459% resistance.
Key Events And Issues In The Coming Week
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/30/2013 07:03 -0500In the upcoming week markets will continue to focus on these fiscal issues in the US, now that a temporary Government shutdown past Tuesday is assured. Still on the fiscal side but outside the US, look forward to Prime Minister Abe announcing his final decision on the VAT hike as well as unveiling a widely anticipated economic stimulus package. Finally, fiscal policy also played a role in the Italian political instability with four ministers resigning from the coalition Government. The backdrop to these events is a rapid deterioration of the political climate after former PM Berlusconi was convicted of tax evasion by a High Court.
Frontrunning: September 30
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/30/2013 06:47 -0500- Apple
- B+
- Bank of America
- Bank of America
- Barclays
- Berkshire Hathaway
- Boeing
- China
- Chrysler
- CIT Group
- Citigroup
- CPI
- Credit Suisse
- Crude
- Dreamliner
- Evercore
- Exxon
- Ford
- Glencore
- goldman sachs
- Goldman Sachs
- Gross Domestic Product
- Hong Kong
- Iceland
- Insider Trading
- JPMorgan Chase
- Merrill
- Merrill Lynch
- Mexico
- Morgan Stanley
- NBC
- Norway
- Obama Administration
- Omnicom
- Raymond James
- Real estate
- Reuters
- Shenzhen
- Silvio Berlusconi
- Spansion
- Wall Street Journal
- Wells Fargo
- Government Heads Toward Shutdown (WSJ), First U.S. Shutdown in 17 Years at Midnight Seen Probable (BBG), Congress in game of chicken (RTRS)
- Italian Premier Pursues Last-Ditch Rescue of Government (WSJ)
- Election risk rattles Italian government bonds (RTRS)
- Obama and Ryan Stay on Sidelines on Budget (WSJ)
- Volcker Rule Costs Tallied as U.S. Regulators Press Deadline (BBG)
- Faltering Chinese Factory Growth Adds to Rebound Fears (FT)
- Health Law Hits Late Snags as Rollout Approaches (WSJ)
- Apple Overtakes Coca-Cola as Most Valuable Brand, Study Finds (BBG)
- Euro-Area September Inflation Slows More Than Forecast on Energy (BBG) - Puting will fix that shortly
Goldman Closes Italian 10-Year Bond Long Recommendation
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/30/2013 06:20 -0500Trust Goldman to have keen, cutting-edge advice after the fact. Like now, a day after the collapse of the Italian government, when in a note, Goldman's Francesco Garzarelli who had been quite bullish on Italy, both in absolute and relative terms, flip-flops, and is now saying to no longer buy (i.e., sell) Italian bonds. To wit: 'The resignation of the PdL ministers will clearly increase volatility in the government bond market, similar to what happened between February and April, before the current government was formed. The spread between 10-year BTPs and German Bunds closed at around 260bp on Friday. At the end of April, we recommended going long Italian 10-yr BTPs against their French counterparts at spread of 221bp. We would be looking to close this position at Monday's levels."
Futures Tumbles Ahead Of US Government Shutdown
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/30/2013 06:07 -0500- Barclays
- Bloomberg News
- Chicago PMI
- China
- Copper
- CPI
- Crude
- Debt Ceiling
- default
- Ethan Harris
- Fail
- Fisher
- fixed
- headlines
- Investor Sentiment
- Iran
- Italy
- Janet Yellen
- Japan
- LTRO
- Markit
- Monetary Policy
- Morgan Stanley
- Nikkei
- NYMEX
- Obamacare
- President Obama
- RANSquawk
- Silvio Berlusconi
- Unemployment
- Uranium
- White House
European equities trade negatively as political tensions on both sides of the Atlantic dampens risk appetite and a lower than expected HSBC manufacturing PMI figure from China further weighs upon investor sentiment. In the US, government is on the precipice of the first shutdown since 1996 after House Republicans refused to pass a budget unless it involved a delay to Obama’s signature healthcare reforms. If the Republicans follow through with their threat a shutdown will occur at midnight tonight. As a result a fixed income in the US and core Europe benefit with investors wary of the immediate harm a shutdown will do to confidence in the economy.
Breaking Bad With Big Bank CEOs: How Bad Bank CEOs Use the Bystander Effect to Dupe Good People Into Working For Them
Submitted by smartknowledgeu on 09/30/2013 05:09 -0500- Bad Bank
- Capital Markets
- Central Banks
- Citigroup
- Corruption
- Drug Money
- Fail
- Fractional Reserve Banking
- Global Economy
- goldman sachs
- Goldman Sachs
- Herd Mentality
- Jamie Dimon
- KIM
- Larry Summers
- Lloyd Blankfein
- Quantitative Easing
- Reality
- Royal Bank of Scotland
- Securities Fraud
- SmartKnowledgeU
- Subprime Mortgages
- Vikram Pandit
- Volatility
- World Bank
- World Trade
This may become the most important article I’ve ever written. But whether it becomes that article or dwells in anonymity is up to you, the reader.
September 29th
NSA Central to U.S. Assassination Program
Submitted by George Washington on 09/29/2013 22:30 -0500Intelligence Agencies Central In Assassination Programs Carried out Without Oversight
Mapping The (Dis)Honesty Of The World
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/29/2013 20:17 -0500
Reader's Digest wanted to know how honest world cities are, so it “lost” 192 wallets in 16 cities - that’s 12 wallets in each city - to see how many would be returned. Each wallet contained $50 equivalent of local currency, as well as a name, phone number, family photo, coupons, and business cards. The results, as IBTimes' Lisa Mahapatra illustrates are perhaps surprising. The US ranked well (with 8/12 wallets returned) but the troubled regions of Europe (Spain and Portugal) came a dismal last with only 2 and 1 wallets returned respectively.
Summing Up America's Class "Struggle"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/29/2013 19:23 -0500
Presented with no comment...
Marc Faber Warns "We Have Reached The Endgame Of Monetary Policy"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/29/2013 18:28 -0500
"One day this whole credit bubble will be deflated very badly - you are going to experience a complete implosion of all asset prices and the credit system..."
US Equity Futures "Heisenberg"-ed To 3-Week Lows
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/29/2013 17:38 -0500
As JPY-crosses suggested in the early Asia session, US equity futures are off to a tough start. S&P 500 futures are down 14 points from Friday's close, testing down to their 50-day moving average and back to 3-week lows. The S&P 500 is now -3.2% from its post-Un-Taper highs. Treasury futures are at 3-month high (price) implying around a 4-5bps drop in yields to 2.58% for 10Y and 1.35% 5Y.
CEO Of Italy's Largest Bank Surprisingly Resigns
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/29/2013 17:05 -0500
The situation in Italy appears to be going from bad to worse. With a confidence vote pending for Tuesday as the government dissolves into chaos for the umpteenth time, and following the resignation of the CEO of one of Italy's largest non-financial corporations (Telecom Italia), the largest bank (by assets) in Italy - Intesa SanPaolo has announced - effective immediately - the resignation of its CEO and replacement with Carlo Messina. According to sources, the now former CEO had lost the confidence of shareholders (which is odd given the bank's stock is near 2-year highs). We can't help but wonder Ayn Rand-like at the devolution of the ruling class in Italy and what happens next (in light of the crumbling manufacturing and production data).
How The Market Reacted To Prior Government Shut Downs
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/29/2013 16:29 -0500
With even the most compromising politicians on both sides of the aisle admitting at least a brief government shutdown is inevitable (and according to Stone McCarthy the shutdown will hardly be brief and will affect the timely release of such major economic indicators as construction spending, factory orders and the employment number on Friday), the next question arises: how have markets responded to not only shutdowns, but also debt ceiling impasse (with the memory of August 2011 still very vivid) in the past. Here is the full answer from Deutsche's Dominic Constam: "In a shutdown scenario, government agency-compiled economic data releases could be delayed, while essential services, such as Treasury auctions, interest and principal payments on Treasury securities will not be affected. Some federal workers could be furloughed. The most recent government shutdown occurred in late 1995 to early 1996, and lasted about three weeks. Payroll and retail sales data were delayed during that period."
Blast From The Past: "The 1999 Boom With No Bust" Edition
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/29/2013 15:25 -0500
It's never different this time. All too often we forget (whether by choice or happenstance) what occurred in the past - missing the lessons from history and, perhaps in an effort to deny the reality, maintaining the status quo that cradles us so warmly every night. In an effort to bring back some of that "memory" - and dispel the inevitable recency bias (and cognitive dissonance) as even the Fed is admitting markets are frothy, we bring you 1999's CNN Special "The New Economy - Boom Without End."





