Archive - 2013

"I got up this early to talk, not to listen," Jim Grant berates Fed-apologist Steve Liesman as the two go head-to-head over the fallacy that QE has been a success. "The Fed can change how things look, it cannot change what things are," is the single-sentence summation of the mirage that the Fed's "dangerous monetary manipulation" has created...

As we noted earlier today, if there was one piece of news that could tip the scales away from a December taper announcement, it was a November inflation number that came in below expectations. Which it did: the headline November inflation print came in unchanged, on expectations of a 0.1% increase for the month, and up 1.2% for the year, below the 1.3% expected. However, before you BTFATH, note that core inflation - the Fed's preferred metric - actually was higher than expected, with prices ex food and gas, rising 0.2% in November on expectations of a 0.1% increase. Indeed, looking at the components, the headline inflation number was dragged down by gasoline prices which dipped 1.6% in November and overall Energy costs which fell 1.0%. Also notable: apparel inflation was -0.4% in November - the third consecutive month of declines. However, back to the core number, annual inflation was up 1.7% Y/Y just shy of the Fed's target, while core service inflation is up 2.4%.

Once again the precious metals market is moving in a highly efficient EKG-like manner - this time to the downside. As the US markets awake, Gold has been hit with heavy selling, retracing all of yesterday's gains, and Silver the same after some overnight shenanigans as Europe opened. The fits and starts with which these markets trade is remarkable - yet we suspect tomorrow will bring even more. Notably this drop in the PMs is also accompanied by further weakness in Bitcoin, a sell-off in bonds and USD strength (the latter of which suggest taper concerns).

Yesterday afternoon, Zions Bancorp, Utah's biggest lender, stunned the financial community with a regulatory filing in which it announced that as a result of the final Volcker Rule implementation, it will need to make some very dramatic changes to its balance sheet, which would also have a follow through, and quite adverse, impact on its income statement. To wit: "Under the published rule, the Company would no longer have the ability to hold disallowed securities until the anticipated recovery of their amortized cost. Therefore, as of December 15, 2013, Zions anticipates that in the fourth quarter of 2013 it will reclassify all covered CDOs that currently are classified as “Held to Maturity” into “Available for Sale,” and that all covered CDOs, regardless of the accounting classification, will be adjusted to Fair Value through an Other Than Temporary Impairment non-cash charge to earnings. The net result would eliminate substantially all of the accumulated other comprehensive income adjustment to equity related to the covered securities." The implications of this announcement could be severe, and in a worst case scenario, as Sterne Agee notes, could "roil the market"...

• Fed’s $4 Trillion Assets Draw Lawmaker Ire Amid Bubble Concern (BBG)
• Ex-Goldmanite Fab Tourre fined more than $1 million (WSJ)
• EU Banks Shrink Assets by $1.1 Trillion as Capital Ratios Rise (BBG)
• Japan to bolster military, boost Asia ties to counter China (Reuters)
• China condemns Abe for criticizing air defense zone (Reuters)
• Insider-Trading Case May Hinge on Phone Call (WSJ)
• Republicans Gird for Debt-Ceiling Fight (WSJ)
• Mario Draghi pushes bank union deal (FT)
• German Coalition Plans More Pension Money (WSJ)
• Oil Supply Surge Brings Calls to Ease U.S. Export Ban (BBG)

Today (like pretty much every other day), it will be all about the Fed and the start of its 2-day FOMC meeting, whose outcome will be influenced by today's 8:30 am CPI report as inflation (Exp. 0.1%) according to many is the only thing stopping the Fed from tapering in light of better than expected recent economic data as well as a clearer fiscal outlook. Or at least that's what the watercooler talk is. The hardliners now agree that since the Fed openly ignored the bond market liquidity considerations in September, that it will plough on through December with no announcement, and potentially continue into 2014 with zero chances of tapering especially now that we approach the end of the business cycle and the Fed should be adding accommodation not removing it. To that end, the consensus still is in favour of January or March for the first taper so markets are not fully set up for a move; conversely a dovish statement would probably result in yet another pre-Christmas, year end market surge, which in the lower market liquidity days of December is likely what the Fed is going for, instead of a volatile, zero liquidity sell off, despite Thursday's double POMO.

Real estate is currently a tale of two distinct trends. In formerly hurting markets such as Arizona, Nevada and Florida, private equity investors have flooded into what is a now gigantically crowded to “buy-to-rent” trade. Meanwhile, in the prime markets such as New York City and San Francisco, we have seen the “money laundering trade,” where rich oligarchs move their often ill-gotten gains into trophy real estate assets abroad. We have seen many signs all year that the first key pillar to the manufactured rise in housing was becoming strained, as rents continued to rise while incomes continued to fall. As far as the second pillar, well at some point the oligarchs will have purchased enough homes in London and Manhattan and then what? Interestingly, the seemingly unstoppable rental market in Manhattan is showing signs of cracking...

We warned last week of the rising nationalism and concerns about Abe's intentions and this evening the escalating tensions in the East China Sea are clear once again. In an effort to "normalize" an officially 'pacifist' policy, a hawkish Abe announced that Japan has tonight increased its military budget notably to buy drones, amphibious vehicles, submarines, and vertical take-off aircraft to boost defenses around the remote Senkaku islands. It seems the farce is getting more surreal as Japan also considers obtaining the means to counter ballistic missiles the point of launch. Why go to war and risk it all by printing and deficit spending your country into oblivion for a 'purpose' when you can do it without spilling a drop of blood?

UPDATE: The earlier rumors have been confirmed: People’s Bank of China told more than 10 third-party payment service providers yesterday not to give clearing services to online Bitcoin exchanges, China Business News reports, citing a central bank meeting with the companies. This news is pressuring Bitcoin to $678 (on Mt.Gox) but more notably, BTC China rates imply a $588 equivalent price - down 57% from its highs. From a $100-plus premium, BTC China now trades $130 cheap to Mt.Gox as the 'arb' flips.

Talk from the PBOC (via Sina) that "the central bank directs: third party payment institutions shall not undertake business with Bitcoin hosted sites," appears to be responsible for the slump in the virtual currency once again. This expands the PBOC's earlier Bitcoin ban to other institutions. Bitcoin prices have dropped over 20% from their overnight highs - trading at around $715 now. Perhaps even more notable is the relationship between Bitcoin and the precious metals today with the early Bitcoin weakness corresponding almost perfectly to gold and silver strength (and again mid-morning in the US).

For many commentators there are two distinct camps in the gold market: investors in bullion and speculators in the paper market. With the two markets pulling in different directions some dealers think it is only a matter of time before derivatives fail completely and the price of gold will rocket on physical demand. However, the key to future gold prices comes down to the point in time at which central banks stop supplying the market; not some sudden crisis between value investors in the East and momentum chasers in the West. That is to confuse cause with effect.

While Canada has had Bitcoin ATMs for over a month, bringing the virtual currency closer to mainstream acceptance; Bittiraha.fi reports that at one of the busiest spots in Helsinki, the Finns have opened the first permanent Bitcoin ATM installation in Europe. With the Chinese shunning the crypto-currency for now but the Swiss inching towards a broader acceptance, the appearance of ATMs (like this one at a well-known Finnish record store in the Helsinki railway station) will only serve to stoke the public interest.

Featuring Frick and Frack...

So barring any huge negative developments, the markets should rally over the next few weeks based on historical and seasonal patterns.

The Federal Reserve holds its last policy meeting of 2013 in the week ahead. In UBS' view there are four possible surprises that could affect the markets. From the odds of a taper to adjusting forecasts and from forward-guidance communication to the chances of a cut in the IOER, the FOMC meeting in the week ahead presents upside and downside risks to the dollar in the near term; even if UBS believes the longer-term will see USD strength against both the EUR and JPY.

All over America, formerly prosperous communities are being transformed into crime-infested wastelands of poverty and despair.  Of course the most famous example of this is Detroit.  At one time, Detroit was the greatest manufacturing city that the world had ever seen and it had the highest per capita income in the entire country.  But now it has become a rotting, decaying hellhole that the rest of the planet laughs at.  And of course Detroit is far from alone.  There are hundreds of other U.S. cities that are suffering a similar fate.  In this article, the focus is going to be on Camden, New Jersey, but the truth is that there are lots of other "Detroits" and "Camdens" all over the nation.  Jobs and businesses are leaving our cities at a staggering rate, and what is being left behind is poverty, crime and extreme desperation.