Archive - 2013

Is Digital Currency the Original "Smart Money"? Here's what most are missing...

While Wall Street's hordes of lawyers are doing their best to find the various loopholes in the Volcker Rule that will allow them to resume unconditional prop trading, they are being kept busy with all the various other forms of regulation that have been thrown at them by regulators and the government in an attempt to make it appear that it is not Wall Street but DC that calls the shots. Some, however, such as Morgan Stanley have decided instead of engaging in costly fight with domestic regulation, to engage in cross border regulatory arbitrage, and focus on other, more prop-trading jurisdiction. Like India. As the Economic Times reports, the Indian brokerage arm of global investment banker Morgan Stanley has sought RBI's approval to start proprietary trading under which it will be able to buy and sell securities on its own account in India.

If past history is any indication, consumers usually get taxed with higher prices in the end.

Having failed miserably in the "control" of capital outflows from the Rupee (via Gold), the India government (following a Reserve Bank Of India advisory) has raided one Bitcoin seller and issued a warning cautioning citizens against acquiring and trading virtual currencies. As VentureBeat reports, the RBI did not outright ban the currencies, but it slammed them as risky and potentially illegal. On Thursday, the "Enforcement Division" raided the premises of Mahim Gupta who provides trading platform through his website - buysellbit.co.in - finding it in clear violation of Foreign Exchange Management Act (FEMA) rules. Whether smuggling gold or utilizing Bitcoin, it seems the government is fighting a losing battle...cue confiscation?

In the course of conducting public opinion surveys and demographic analyses, the Pew Research Center found a wide range of data milestones, breakthroughs, peaks and valleys in 2013, including record support for same-sex marriage and the legalization of marijuana; record levels of distrust of the federal government; record numbers of mothers who were the primary breadwinners for their families; and record numbers of Millennials living with their parents. Here is a look at the highs and lows Americans reached this year, according to Pew's data.

For all the endless talk of a recovery during the past five years, there is a very tangible reason why for most people this is nothing but spin, propaganda and lies: when one strips away the retroactively adjusted GDP, the seasonally adjusted (and politically mandated) counting of temp jobs, the constantly upward revised jobless claims, the Fed's $4+ trillion balance sheet of course, and even the declining (yes, declining) real disposable income per capita, what one is left with is the lowest loan creation out of a recession (or depression) in history, and is at indexed levels last seen during the Lehman collapse over five years ago!

One of these is not like the others. Well, two...

Muammer Akkas, the prosecutor who complained his government corruotion investigation efforts were being blocked by the government - has been removed from the investigation. Prime Minister Erdogan's efforts to rein in "the final attack" on "new Turkey" are failing even after his cabinet reshuffle but this morning's rhetoric has sent asset prices tumbling once more:

*'THE NEW TURKEY IS UNDER SERIOUS ATTACK': ERDOGAN
*IN NEW TURKEY, SOVEREIGNTY CAN'T LIE WITH JUDICIARY: ERDOGAN
*LAWMAKERS SHOULD AVOID REMARKS HURTING ERDOGAN: ARINC
*ERDOGAN SAYS HE'S ISSUING LEGAL COMPLAINT AGAINST MEDIA LEAKS

As one analyst noted, "Erdogan continues to present the developments as a conspiracy despite having to shuffle his cabinet, which indicates that there may be some serious findings behind the probe."

As the 10Y broke solidly through 3.00% so precious metals began to move and after testing $20 in Silver overnight a few times, both gold and silver have just run stops through key levels and are jumping like Twitter (or Bitcoin) for a few minutes. WTI Crude has also just broke $100.

The only leverage available to all is extreme frugality in service of accumulating productive capital. There are only three ways to better oneself financially: marry someone with money, inherit money or accumulate capital/savings and invest it in productive assets. (We'll leave out lobbying the Federal government for a fat contract, faking disability, selling derivatives designed to default and other criminal activities.) Debt is serfdom, capital in all its forms is freedom.

While a few media outlets had premature releases yesterday, Bloomberg data just confirmed that for the second time this year, 10Y US Treasury yields have crossed 3% (it was 3.005% in Sept 2013) breaking to the highest since July 2011 (right before the yield collapse after the US debt-ceiling downgrade debacle). We are sure the media will proclaim this as 'proof' that the recovery is different this time, except the term structure continues to flatten (suggesting less faith in the future) and to spice things up 30Y mortgage rates have surged to 4.63% - almost the highest since May 2011 - but again, apparently, this won't affect the housing recovery either (even though mortgage apps are down two-thirds from their highs).

On Thursday, Japan prime minister Shinzo Abe stunned the world by defying everyone - including the EU and the US whose embassy sent a tersely worded letter in which is said that it is "disappointed that Japan's leadership has taken an action that will exacerbate tensions with Japan's neighbors" - when he visited the Yasukuni Shrine where Japanese leaders convicted as war criminals by an Allied tribunal after World War Two are honored along with those who died in battle, for the first time in 7 years. The response was fast and furious. Below, courtesy of Reuters, is a snapshot of the morning after in the Chinese media. The reviews of Abe's action were not glowing.

• Millions of Tons of Metals Stashed in Shadow Warehouses (WSJ)
• Moguls Rent South Dakota Addresses to Dodge Taxes Forever  (BBG)
• Fastest Japan Inflation Since ’08 Stokes Wage Pressure (BBG)
• Thai crisis deepens as army chief hints at intervention (Reuters)
• Anti-Assad Lebanese ex-minister killed in Beirut bomb (Reuters)
• Foreigners Unload Turkey Bonds as Probe Tarnishes Erdogan Growth  (BBG)
• Small ISS Change Shakes Up Boards: Tweak to Influential Shareholder Adviser's Recommendations Has Directors Rethinking Proposals (WSJ)
• Japan’s Nishimura Calls for Quick Corporate Tax Cut to Under 30% (BBG)
• Japan's Abe bets U.S. alliance, ratings can weather shrine visit (Reuters)

It's the last Friday of 2013. Here is what happened overnight.

After last night's clear pursuit of the 105 one touch digital option concluded with success, this morning, the stop hunts continue, only this time in the EURUSD, which has been on a steady upward trajectory and starting below 1.37 has crossed nearly 200 pips in the matter of 12 hours, and moments ago stopped just shy of 1.3900 where it seems another one touch digital threshold can be found.Depending on how much money the seller stands to lose should 1.39 be taken out, expect a fierce (or not so fierce) defense of the barrier.