Archive - Jan 21, 2014

The Syrian peace talks - much heralded by investors and politicians worldwide as a brave step towards a better future - are on the ropes this morning. Following the UN acquiescence to the US demand that they rescind Iran's invite to the so-called Geneva II conference,and yet another suicide bombing in Lebanon, this morning's incredible SNAFU is thanks to the Greeks:

• GREECE REFUSES TO REFUEL SYRIAN GENEVA TEAM AIRCRAFT: SYRIA TV
• SYRIAN AIRCRAFT DELAY CANCELS MEETING WITH UN’S BAN: STATE TV

The peace accord set to begin tomorrow will be delayed and are in further jeopardy as CNN reports further evidence of Syrian President al-Assad systematically killing and torturng around 11,000 people.

The last time we pointed out an ECB bond sterilization failure as part of its legacy SNP program was on December 30 of last year (the third in a row), when a liquidity glut led to the biggest sterilization shortfall, one amounting to €39 billion, when only 89 banks submit bids to absorb paper in exchange for a paltry tip. Moments ago, the ECB reported that in just the third such sterilization auction of the new year there was once again a failure to absorb all the €177.5 billion in outstanding toxic peripheral bonds, when an impressive 126 bidders showed up and yet were only able to generate only €152.1 billion in bids, leaving a €25 billion shortfall.

It’s Sri Lanka that is the next on the list for investors. The darling of Southeast Asia, the gem of the Indian Ocean is the one of the few that didn’t get dragged down by the downturn in the markets.

What could possibly go wrong?

S&P filed a declaration of McGraw yesterday in federal court in Santa Ana, California, as part of a request to force the U.S. to hand over potential evidence the company says will support its claim that the government filed a fraud lawsuit against it last year in retaliation for its downgrade of the U.S. debt two years earlier. In his court statement, McGraw said Geithner called him on Aug. 8, 2011, after S&P was the only credit ratings company to downgrade the U.S. debt. Geithner, McGraw said, told him that S&P would be held accountable for the downgrade. Government officials have said the downgrade was based on an error by S&P. “S&P’s conduct would be looked at very carefully,” Geithner told McGraw according to the filing. “Such behavior would not occur, he said, without a response from the government."

• Hilsenrath: Next Cut in Fed Bond Buys Looms - Reduction to $65 Billion Could Be Announced on Jan. 29 (WSJ)
• China Workforce Slide Robs Xi of Growth Engine (BBG)
• Obama pulls the race card: Obama Says Race May Blunt Poll Standing in Interview (BBG)
• Chinese firm's IPO deal switches banks as chairman's daughter moves from JPMorgan to UBS (SCMP)
• China and Russia may hold joint naval drill in the Mediterranean (RT)
• Iran invite to Syria talks withdrawn after boycott threat (Reuters)
• Seven Chinese IPOs Halt Trading After 44 Percent Share  (BBG)
• U.S. military says readying plans for Olympic security assistance (Reuters)
• Thank you Bernanke: Investors Most Upbeat in 5 Years With Record 59% Bullish in Poll (BBG)
• From His Refuge in the Poconos, Reclusive Imam Fethullah Gulen Roils Turkey (WSJ)

One of the bigger stories overnight is Hilsenrath's latest communication from the Fed which once again simply paraphrases the status quo opinion, namely which is that the Fed will taper by another $10 billion on January 29, reducing the total monthly flow to $65 billion. "The Federal Reserve is on track to trim its bond-buying program for the second time in six weeks as a lackluster December jobs report failed to diminish the central bank's expectations for solid U.S. economic growth this year, according to interviews with officials and their public comments." Of course, should the Fed not do that, as the Hilsenrath turned to Hilsen-wrath after all those Taper rumors in September ended up being one giant dud, one can once and for all completely ignore the WSJ reporter, who will have lost all his Fed sources and is now merely an echo chamber of consensus. What is notable is that the result of the latest mouthpiece effort, the USD is stronger, which means USDJPY is higher, which means US equity futures are flying.... on less QE to be announced. We eagerly await for this particular correlation pair to finally flip. The other big story, of course, is the already noted well-telegraphed in advance PBOC liquidity injection ahead of the Chinese Lunar New Year, and ahead of a potential January 31 Trust default which will certainly shake the foundations of the Chinese shadow banking system to the core. Not helping nerves was last night's announcement by Zhang Ming, a researcher and director of the international investment department at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, that "trusts and shadow banking will see defaults this year, and this is a good thing." Let's circle back in 6 months to see just how good it is.