Archive - Jan 5, 2014
China Services PMI Crumbles To 2nd Worst Level On Record
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/05/2014 21:52 -0500
Following the missed expectations of the Manufacturing PMIs in China, it appears 'reform' is having the exact slow-growth-inducing credit-creation-dampening effects many had worried about (but dismissed because - well the Fed has out back right?). HSBC's China Services PMI slumped by its most in 8 months to its lowest level since August 2011 (the 2nd worst level since the data began). New business expansion in particular dropped to its lowest level in 6 months and while labor market conditions improved marginally, HSBC - desperate to cling to some silver lining - noted the Composite PMI remains above 50 (phew) - adding "we expect the steady expansion of manufacturing sectors to lend support to service sector growth..." or not. Markets are disappointed...
Ron Paul On Iraq Part 2: "The ‘Liberation’ Neocons Would Rather Forget"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/05/2014 20:33 -0500
Remember Fallujah? Shortly after the 2003 invasion of Iraq, the US military fired on unarmed protestors, killing as many as 20 and wounding dozens. In retaliation, local Iraqis attacked a convoy of US military contractors, killing four. The US then launched a full attack on Fallujah to regain control, which left perhaps 700 Iraqis dead and the city virtually destroyed. According to press reports last weekend, Fallujah is now under the control of al-Qaeda affiliates. During the 2007 “surge,” more than 1,000 US troops were killed “pacifying” the Anbar province. Although al-Qaeda was not in Iraq before the US invasion, it is now conducting its own surge in Anbar. For Iraq, the US “liberation” is proving far worse than the authoritarianism of Saddam Hussein, and it keeps getting worse.
Peak Speculation And The Ides Of January 14th
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/05/2014 20:04 -0500
Confidence abounds. Last week, Investor’s Intelligence reported a surge in advisory sentiment to the highest bullish percentage since October 19, 2007. John Hussman notes that NAAIM reported that the 3-week average equity exposure among its members increased to the highest level on record. Given the unfortunate resolution of similarly extreme overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising-yield periods in history, it's almost mind-boggling that investors actually expect the present speculative run to end well. The accelerating pitch and shallowing corrections of the recent advance are worth noting. Based on the fidelity of the recent advance to this price structure, we estimate the “finite-time singularity” of the present log-periodic bubble to occur (or to have occurred) somewhere between December 31, 2013 and January 13, 2014.
Russia Just Says "Nyet" To Japan's Radioactive Exports
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/05/2014 19:34 -0500
While Japanese imports are surging on the back of an ever-depreciating currency and ever-appreciating cost of energy, it would appear the enterprising Easterners have come up with a solution to two problems - exports and radiation. As RT reports, more than 130 "contaminated" used cars from Japan were denied access to Russia last year. The consumer watchdog agency Rospotrebnadzor is also closely monitoring deliveries of fish. It seems the world is also losing interest in one of Japan's other major exports - Blue-Fin Tuna (as prices have dropped 95% from last year!)
Weekly Sentiment Report: It's Just a Number
Submitted by thetechnicaltake on 01/05/2014 19:08 -0500That's the conundrum investors must face if they want in to this market now.
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Brian Pretti: The World's Capital Is Now Dangerously Boxed In
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/05/2014 18:35 -0500
Since quantitative easing (QE) became the policy of the world's major central banks, capital is being herded into fewer and fewer asset classes. With such huge volumes of money at play, very crowded trades in assets like stocks and housing have resulted - bringing us back to familiar bubble territory in record time. The key for the individual, as Pretti emphasizes in this excellent interview, is risk management. The safety many investors believe they are buying in today's markets is not real... "this comes down to individual families making an assessment of how much risk they can afford to take. Below that line, they do not allow it to happen. It may sound trite but: You have every day of your life to get back into the market, but sometimes you do not have a second chance to get out."
The 'Real' Road Ahead In 2014 (In One Cartoon)
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/05/2014 17:29 -0500
"Hope" And "Change" And This Time It's Different...again...
Precious Metals In 2014
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/05/2014 16:18 -0500
As we enter 2014 mainstream economists relying on inaccurate statistics, many of which are not even relevant to a true understanding of our economic condition, seem convinced that the crises of recent years are now laid to rest. If we objectively assess the state of the labour markets in most welfare-driven economies the truth conforms to a continuing slump; and if we take a realistic view of price increases, including capital assets, price inflation may even be in double figures. The corruption of price inflation statistics in turn makes a mockery of GDP numbers, which realistically adjusted for price inflation are contracting. This gloomy conclusion should come as no surprise to thoughtful souls in any era. These conditions are the logical outcome of the corruption of currencies and the effect of unsound money... and two conclusions for 2014...
The Gold Bull Market is Not Dead...
Submitted by Phoenix Capital Research on 01/05/2014 15:40 -0500Make no mistake, gold is not dead. Not by any means. The day is coming when its price will soar again.
BofAML: Bond Bears And USDJPY Bulls Beware
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/05/2014 15:24 -0500
Treasury bears are at risk, is the ominous warning from BofAML's Technical Strategist MacNeil Curry, as bonds are on the verge of turning the near-term, and potentially medium-term, trend from bearish to bullish. USDJPY bulls should also take note as with the 3-month uptrend increasingly showing its age, a reversal in US rates could prove to be the catalyst for a USDJPY reversal lower.
"Resilient" Bitcoin Surges Above $1000 As Zynga Confirms Adoption
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/05/2014 14:46 -0500
It seems the adoption of major US-based vendors of the digital currency is trumping the Chinese clamp-down on Bitcoin as first Overstock and now Zynga confirm their adoption of the crypto-currency. For the first time since the PBOC issued its statement, Bloomberg reports Zynga is partnering with BitPay to test Bitcoin payments. As ConvergEx's Nick Colas notes, "Bitcoin has been remarkably resilient in the face of all the bad news out of China. The strength shows a continued interest, which is a very positive sign."
Guest Post: The Minimum Wage Forces Low-Skill Workers To Compete With Higher-Skill Workers
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/05/2014 14:23 -0500
The efforts underway by the Service Employees International Union, and its political and media allies, to raise the minimum wage from $7.25 to $15 per hour would, if successful, cause major unemployment among low-skilled workers, who are the supposed beneficiaries of those efforts. No one can question the desirability of being able to earn $15 an hour rather than $7.25 an hour. Still more desirable would be the ability to earn $50 an hour instead of $15 an hour. However, it is necessary to know considerably more than this about economics before attempting to enact sweeping changes in economic policy...
Four Drivers for the Week Ahead
Submitted by Marc To Market on 01/05/2014 13:26 -0500A look at the technical condition of the fx market, interest rate differentials, central bank developments and the data due out in the week ahead.
What The US Population Is Most Concerned About
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/05/2014 13:21 -0500
Contrary to ongoing attempts by the administration to refocus the public's attention on such focal points as guns, an imminent external cybersecurity threat (until it was revealed that the biggest cyber terrorist is the NSA itself), and climate change, the three still remain, pardon the pan, at the cold end of the spectrum when it comes to what issues most concern the US public. On the other end, for one decade and counting, the "top priority" for the US public was and continues to be "the economy", stupid.
5 Ways To Profit From A China Downturn In 2014
Submitted by Asia Confidential on 01/05/2014 12:40 -0500All signs point to serious trouble for the Chinese economy. The best ways to play a China downturn: short-selling Australian banks, China property and the yuan.






