Archive - Jan 7, 2014

With Washington fighting over whether to stop emergency unemployment benefits in the US, the Saudi Arabian government has re-written their economic textbooks with some wonderful new logic. In an effort to encourage its citizens to seek jobs in private companies (as opposed to the majority in government jobs - which the IMF sees as unsustainable), the Saudis are introducing compulsory unemployment insurance for all citizens with jobs. As Reuters reports, "It may not be the most cost effective solution in the near term but if it helps normalise the labour market it is a price worth paying." With unemployment at 12%, and only 30-40% labor force participation, the costs could be significant.

We have been reading quite a few articles, as of late, regarding the resurgence of corporate fixed investment in 2014 that will provide a much needed boost to the economy.  However, is that really the case? Given the data, it is far more likely that we are closer to the next recession versus the middle of an economic cycle.  The fact that productivity growth is approaching zero is likely due to the reality that businesses have already extracted the majority of the benefits from their ongoing cost cutting and productivity measures. A resurgence of capital investment would certainly help stabilize the economy and potentially lift it to a level that would stimulate stronger employment and consumer demand.  However, when it comes to managing investment risk, "hope" is not an investment strategy that works long term.

Despite the best day in the S&P (+0.6%) since the Taper (12/18), this remains the worst start to a year since 2005. The Dow stands out as the best of the bad bunch ( down only 0.25% from 2013 close highs) while Trannies remain the worst. Homebuilders tumbled back to recouple with Financials post-Taper. Treasuries decided to ignore the equity strength and rallied once again (with 10Y now -10bps on the year) even as the USD was well bid back to unch on the week (once again all the vol in the US open to EU close period) with notable CAD weakness to its lowest since May 2010. USDJPY was on-and-off in charge with stocks staying in sync until the EU close, reconnecting briefly in the afternoon, then taking off again. VIX dropped back under 13% (but stocks were relatively outperforming). Precious metals remained in the headlines, this time with weakness, but from the early spike down, they recovered half the losses.

Yesterday's chart of the day was the stunning prevalence of poverty in Greece, which soaring to 44%, up from 14% a year ago, was too mindboggling to even comment on. Today, courtesy of the Census Bureau, we get a glance at a just as disturbing aspect of poverty not in some country in depressed Europe, but in the US itself. The bad news: in the period from 2009 to 2011, 31.6% of Americans were in poverty for at least two months, "a 4.5 percentage point increase over the prerecession period of 2005 to 2007.

Also:

RBS Pays $600 Million for Manpulating Interest Rates … But Big Banks Are Manipulating EVERY Market to the Tune of Trillions of Dollars

The selloff in silver has had an unexpected effect on silver spreads.

The economist Herbert Stein once said that if something can't go on forever, it will stop. The pattern of the last few decades, in which higher education costs grew much faster than incomes, with the difference made up by borrowing, can't go on forever... There is no point in trying to preserve the old regime as "working your way through college" is now impossible. For an 18-year-old, investing such a six-figure sum in an education without a payoff makes no more sense than buying a Ferrari on credit.

On a satellite interview from Pyongyang, North Korea, former NBA player Dennis Rodman 'lost it' this morning with the anchor from CNN's "New Day" show. Describing his (and his team's) visit to North Korea as a "great trip for the world," Rodman started to get frustrated when questioned about whether he will use the opportunity to speak about Kenneth Bae, an American citizen who has been held in North Korea. "Do you understand what he did?" Rodman exclaimed, "You tell me! You tell me! Why is he held captive?" Having described Kim Jong Un as a "friend for life," Rodman went on to tell the CNN anchor, "I don't give a rat's ass what you think." Ah, the new normal diplomacy. We wonder if Kim's uncle also described him as a 'friend for life.'? As WaPo reports, The White House is not happy.

The central illusion of both Left (so-called Progressives) and Right (so-called conservatives) is that the Central State's essentially unlimited powers can be narrowly directed to further their agenda. Supporting the central state to protect your favored cartels and protect your political power over the state's tax revenues is simply pimping for the Empire. You can call it "progressive," but it's still pimping for the Empire.

Back in September, just before the FOMC announcement in which Bernanke shocked everyone by not announcing a Taper, the 3 Year priced in the early part of the month at a yield of 0.913%: the highest since May 2011. After that, following the delay of the taper, yields dipped, but are once again rising higher, and moments ago the $30 billion 3 Year auction priced - in the first post-taper auction - at a high yield of 0.799%, a jump from the December 0.631%, and a tiny tail to the When Issued stopping at 0.797%, but still shy of the September wides.

A spiral of Looneyism...

Of all the case studies in our "it is easier to get into Harvard than to get a job at X" series (flight attendants, Goldman summer interns, McDonalds, etc), this one may be our favorite because it captures at its core, just how "strong" the US economic "recovery" truly is for all those who don't have a spare million or two in financial assets to throw at the levitating, centrally-planned markets. As the WaPo reports, when a Maryland ice cream plant, shut down in 2011 and subsequnetly was brought back to life when a Co-op of dairy farmers purchased it in the summer of 2013 to process milk and icream, sent out "jobs wanted" notices to fill some three dozen open job positions, it got a surprise: 1,600 applicants (and counting) "a deluge" - 44 applicants for every position - or nearly three times more difficult than getting into Harvard to get a simple job... To make ice cream!

After ruling as unconstitutional Chicago ordinances that aim to reduce gun violence by banning their sale within the city’s limits, U.S. District Judge Edmond E. Chang said Monday that while the government has a duty to protect its citizens, it’s also obligated to protect constitutional rights, including the right to keep and bear arms for self-defense. As AP reports, the decision is just the latest to attack what were some of the toughest gun-control laws in the nation; with the NRA noting it "shows how out of step and outrageous Chicago’s ordinances really are." Despite the city's ban "to protect its citizens," Chicago last year had more homicides than any city in the nation.

Moments ago shots were fired when a (French) bank broke the unspoken Omerta code among sellside bankers: it downgraded another bank in a time when the S&P is just shy its all time highs (downgrading banks when the market is tumbling is usually a-ok). The note came from SocGen's Andrew Lim, whse thesis is rather simple: "Valuation too expensive in light of regulatory and revenue challenges."