Archive - Oct 9, 2014

While he still holds many stocks, Billionaire investor Carl Icahn joins the ranks of many of his billionaire market-watchers and is "hedging with S&P Puts," because he is "concerned about the whole economy." As he explains in this brief clip, "you can't keep an economy up just from The Fed," and with The Fed withdrawing from its money-printing largesse, Icahn concludes, a big correction "is definitely coming, it's just a matter of when."

Holding the line of America's political leaders with regard the risk of an Ebola outbreak in the US, NY Mayor Bill de Blasio explained today "there is no cause for alarm." However, in his next breath, as Bloomberg reports, he announced that America's most-populous US city is increasing vigilance against the Ebola virus by involving every agency that interacts with the public. De Blasio called the meeting after the death yesterday in Dallas of Thomas Eric Duncan, "to make sure that if anyone does present themselves with symptoms, we have a clear protocol on how to handle the situation." Meanwhile, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie told reporters today in Trenton, "we're not ready at airports yet but we will be."

Following yesterday's diuscussion of the fact in the Land of The Free, Property Rights rank 36th in the world, we thought it fascinating that, as Rasmussen finds, 70% Oppose Police Seizure of Property Without A Criminal Conviction - Americans strongly believe someone needs to be convicted of a crime before their property can be seized, even though that’s contrary to current federal law and police practice. Which means a rather stunning 30% of Americans believe it is fine...

At the end of the day, the Fed with its misguided theories have demolished capitalism: the single most powerful form of wealth generation in the history of mankind. All the Fed has really accomplished is leverage the entire financial by an even greater amount… which has set the stage for a collapse that will make 2008 look like a picnic.

First a secret "Doomsday book", and now this?

"Global growth is really bad! Hooray!" That was the verdict of US markets yesterday, as the Fed minutes “revealed” (to use the breathless phrasing of mainstream financial media) a “growing concern” with the damaging impact of European torpor and a stronger dollar on US growth, and it’s a perfect example of why I’ve called a top in the Narrative of Central Bank Omnipotence. What’s interesting to us though is not this latest success of the Narrative of Fed Omnipotence. No, what’s interesting to me is this week’s failure of the Narrative of ECB Omnipotence.

WTI Crude oil has now entered a bear market, down over 20% from its June highs (and energy stocks are not off the lows) edging closer and closer to 28 month lows. Meanwhile, gold prices have risen for 4 days in a row - the longest winning streak in 7 months...

It's different this time... and not in a good way. Real intraday range volatility over the last 2 weeks is breaking out - at its highest in 3 years...

Screening With a Thermometer Is Guaranteed to Fail …

UPDATE: Nevache confirmed that the "suspicion was over" and the people were allowed to leave

Following news of the death of a British man in Macedonia from Ebola, RTL reports that 60 people are locked inside a Department of Medical and Social Coordination (DASS) building in Cergy-Pontoise (on the northeast edge of Paris) following Ebola-like symptoms in 4 people who returned from Guinea.

Regarding the two violent selloffs this week: there is no mystery. Recall that Deutsche Bank warned late in the summer this would happen for one simple reason: there are just three more weeks of POMO left after which the Fed's balance sheet flatlines, and with it, the S&P500. The only question is whether those who "sell ahead of everyone else", manage to take the S&P far below "unchanged", as prior QE ends have done, proving once again that it is all about the flow not the stock, and as a result the Fed will once again have to resort to even more QE.

If yesterday's 10 Year auction was very weak, despite the market reaction post the Fed minutes ramping the paper to highs not seen since last May, moments ago the Treasury concluded this week's auctions by selling another $13 billion in the August 30-Year reopening, in another relatively weak issue, which priced at 3.74%, a small 0.2 bps tail to the 3.72% When Issued. In any event, the high yield of just over 3% was the lowest since the May 2013 Taper Tantrum freak out. As a reference, the lowest the 30 Year has sold at auction was 2.58% in July 2012 at the peak of the European debt crisis and just before Draghi uttered the magic words "whatever it takes." The internals were also somewhat weak, with the Bid To Cover dropping from 2.67 to 2.404, just below the 2.44 TTM. And yet, unlike yesterday's 10 Year when the Direct takedown crashed to multi-year lows, today's Direct allotment was a decent 21.5%, well above the recent average, and in line with some of the higher Direct bids in recent years.