Archive - Oct 2014

Here Zero...

Having reached multi-year lows last week, this week's 17k rise to 283k (albeit noise), missing expectations for the first time in 6 weeks, is the biggest weekly rise in initial jobless claims since early August. Of course that's irrelevant as all the time there is no hiring, there is no firing and the 4-week average (less noisy) dropped to its lowest since May 2000 - though we are sure Fed heads will not be reassured by this data as they focus attention on inflationary expectations (having 'fixed' employment). Continuing Claims dropped to cycle lows - the lowest since Dec 2000.

Saudi Arabia, it appears, had enough of shooting itself in the foot for its American 'partners', and has admitted for the first time that it slashed supply in September. As Bloomberg reports, OPEC’s biggest producer cut supply to mkt by 328k b/d in September to 9.36m b/d, from 9.688m b/d in August, according to a person with knowledge of Saudi Arabia’s oil policy. Prices in September were flat admit this supply cut which suggests along with the build in EIA inventories seen yesterday that Saudi Arabia may have also been forced by global demand weakness to cut supply through October also.

Moments ago, CAT, which is a major DJIA component, just reported blowaway EPS of $1.72, far above the $1.35 expected. How did it achieve this stunning number which has pushed DJIA futures higher by almost half a percent?  Simple: first there was the usual exclusions, with "restructuring costs" adding back some $0.09 to the bottom line number. But the punchline was this: "In addition to the profit improvement, we have a strong balance sheet and through the first nine months of the year, we've had good cash flow.  So far this year, we've returned value to our stockholders by repurchasing $4.2 billion of Caterpillar stock and raising our quarterly dividend by 17 percent," Oberhelman said." And here is just how the surge in buyback activity looked in comparison to Q3 2013...

• Canada PM vows crackdown after capital shocked by fatal attacks (Reuters)
• Canada Gunman Was Convert to Islam With Criminal Record (BBG)
• Some U.S. hospitals weigh withholding care to Ebola patients (Reuters)
• But... Great rotation... Bond funds stock up on Treasuries in prep for market shock (Reuters)
• Saudis at War With Islamic State Confront Echo of Kingdom’s Past (BBG)
• EU’s Top Banker Warns of Rule Fixation ‘Going Beyond Reason (BBG)
• U.S.-led air strikes killed 521 fighters, 32 civilians in Syria (Reuters)
• Growing Kurdish Unity Helps West, Worries Turkey (WSJ)
• Don’t Be Distracted by the Pass Rate in ECB’s Bank Exams (BBG)
• Hedge Funds Add to Venture-Capital Bounty (WSJ)
• Speed-of-Light Trading Grows in Europe With McKay Network (BBG)

Perhaps the most interesting question from late yesterday is just how did the Chinese PMI rebound from 50.4 to 50.2, when the bulk of its most important forward-looking components, New Orders, Output, New Export Orders, posted a material deterioration? When asked, not even Markit could provide an explanation that seemed remotely reasonable so we can only assume the headline was goalseeked purely for the kneejerk reaction benefit of various algos that only focus on the headline and nothing else. Luckily, we didn't have much time to ponder this quandary as a few hours later we got the latest batch of Eurozone PMI numbers.

But not how you think.

There's something we 'regular' citizens wrestle with that the elites never seem to: a sense of moral duty.

Dear NSA Employees, You Now Have a Green Light to Loot and Pillage. It’s Time to Get Paid: Are you just another one of those frustrated NSA employees who feels that unconstitutionally spying on your fellow citizenry under false pretenses isn’t giving you same thrill it once did? If so, have no fear.

America's #1 landlord may be private equity giant Blackstone, but closing in rapidly is none other than America's very own arch nemesis and ascendent superpower, China. But while until recently China's grand ambitions on US multi-family housing had largely flown under the radar, the recent sale of the Waldorf Astoria to a Chinese company has finally put the US on "China is coming" alert... and reincarnated a lot of the same jokes that swept the country by storm in the mid-80s when it appeared Japan, itself nursing a massive asset bubble, would run over Manhattan (everyone knows how that ended).

The reactions in USDJPY, Nikkei 225, S&P futures, Gold, Treasury futures, and oil (in a word - none!) tells you all you need to know about the market's total loss of faith in the soft-survey-based PMI data from around the world (and in particular China and Japan). Despite dramatic weakness in a slew of hard-date economic indicators for both nations, the PMIs rose and beat. Japan's to 7-month highs (so much for moar QQE?) but New orders and Output tumbled. China rose and beat but all key components dropped. As the two charts below suggest... things in PMI data production-land need some better "adjustments" if they are to keep the dream alive...

With the US Shale Oil industry up in arms, Venezuela screaming, and Russia awkwardly quiet (as the Ruble slides with the falling oil price stabilizing domestic inflows), the 'secret' Saudi-US oil deal that pressured prices for crude down to $80 (18-month lows today) has 'hurt' a lot of the world's producer nations. However, as Bloomberg reports, there is one nation that is very grateful. The number of supertankers sailing toward China’s ports surged to a nine-month high as over 80 very large crude carriers (VLCCs) - the industry’s biggest ships - sail toward the Asian country’s ports. At an average of 2 million barrels each, the 160 million barrels will help refill China's 727 million barrel SPR which it started in 2012.

The US government’s debt is getting close to reaching another round number - $18 trillion. It currently stands at more than $17.9 trillion. But what does that really mean? The Social Security Administration just released data for the average yearly salary in the US in fiscal year that just ended. It stands at $44,888.16. The current debt level of over $17.9 trillion would thus take more than 398 million years of working at the average wage to pay off.

The US Embassy in Kabul, Afghanistan is "disappointed," according the statement department latter below, responding to the Special Investigator General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) findings over poppy cultivation in the troubled nation. Simply put, despite the United States spending approximately $7.6 billion on counternarcotics efforts in Afghanistan (as of June 30, 2014), opium poppy cultivation levels in Afghanistan hit an all-time high in 2013 (with a 50% rise last year alone). Of course, like any good government agency, deny and blame someone else, as the DOD went on to state that "the failure to reduce poppy cultivation and increase eradication is due to the lack of Afghan government support for the effort."

Just weeks after WhiteHouseFenceJumperGate saw the head of the Secret Service dispatched - having been disappointed not to be able to implement her reforms that would ensure the safety of the White House, the agency reports:

*MAN STOPPED AFTER JUMPING WHITE HOUSE FENCE: SECRET SERVICE

What is worse - much worse - is this african-american chap proceeds to kick and harass the guard dogs sent to dispatch him... an egregious act in anyone's book.