Archive - Nov 10, 2014

Which country will be next?

The Hryvnia has collapsed to new record lows near 15/USD this morning. The Central Bank and bankers "agreed to keep UAH at 15-16/USD" but are "not planning on new FX market restrictions." However, there is one terrifying 'currency' that needs to be curtailed... Bitcoin. As The National Bank of Ukraine explains, "In order to protect consumers' rights," the virtual currency Bitcoin cannot be used in Ukraine as a means of payment.

The risks unleashed by central bank funding of massive carry trades, policy-driven devaluations and currency crises have yet to manifest. When they do, we'll rediscover why traders consider the FX market the 800-pound gorilla that stomps on the stock and bond markets without even noticing the squishing sound.

Swiss referendum is unlikely to be enacted into law, and if it is, there are several measures the SNB can do to limit its impact.  Expect the SNB to defend the euro floor/franc cap. 

"Chinese numbers came out; I was kind of amused that when they’re pretty much on expectations, nobody writes that the books are cooked and that you have to discount the exports, etc.; they came in right on expectations, and everyone high fives the science of economic forecasting. We’ve either got to seasonally adjust for book cooking or assume, like all numbers, they are an educated guess."

• Obama urges China to be partner in ensuring world order (Reuters)
• China Sees Itself at Center of New Asian Order (WSJ)
• Xi Dangles $1.25 Trillion as China Counters U.S. Refocus (BBG)
• China's Xi, Japan's Abe hold landmark meeting after awkward handshake (Reuters)
• Revenue Softness Worries Stock Investors (WSJ)
• How BOJ’s Kuroda Won the Vote for Stimulus Expansion (WSJ)
• Bonus Season Brings More Pain for Traders (WSJ)
• Russia’s Military Encounters Risk Clash in Europe (BBG)

Following Friday's sticksave, where the usual 3:30 pm ramp brigade pushed futures just barely green into the close despite a miss in the payrolls report which the spin brigade did everything in its power to make it seem that the hiring a few hundred thousand young female waitresses was bullish for the economy, overnight we have seen a listless session, dominated by more USD-profit taking as increasingly more wonder if the relentless surge higher in the Greenback is massively overdone, especially considering that stocks are screaming "worldwide recession" excluding the US, if only for now, because as Goldman explained soaring USD means plunging Oil, means tumbling E&P capex, means lower GDP, means less growth, means lower corporate profits, and so on. That said, we expect the now trivial Virtu JPY momentum-ignition algos to activate shortly, pushing the USDJPY and its derivative, the S&P500, higher in the coming minutes, and certainly before the US market opens in under 3 hours.