Archive - Nov 18, 2014

Imagine… if you could press a magic button… and your wealth expanded by hundreds of thousands…if not millions of Dollars.

While the argument that declines in energy and gasoline prices should lead to stronger consumption sounds logical, the data suggests that this is not actually the case.

Presented with no comment...

"Just when did Central Bankers become world media superstars and when do we get to put them back in their box?" Strutting the world stage, flitting from press conference to rubber chicken dinner, dispensing what passes for wisdom and prognosis as if the court astrologers have toppled the mighty Nebuchadnezzar and now rule in his place. Whatever happened to discreetly overseeing the balance of payments and facelessly staunching the worst panics only when absolutely necessary? This is clearly Japan’s last stand and there is no real exit strategy except to explicitly default on its debt. But an economic collapse and a sovereign debt default on the world’s third largest economy will contain massive economic ramifications on a global scale.

It's been quite a year for David Kostin and his flip-flopping Goldman equity strategy team. From a modest 1,900 year-end target in January (reached in May) to warning stocks are 30-45% overvalued in January to projecting the S&P 500 will reach 2,050 by year-end in July...Mission Accomplished today, 6 weeks early. Now what?

Can beggars be choosers again? Judging by the drop in Greek bond prices, the answer is no. As Bloomberg reports, Greek PM Samaras is pushing back against Troika demands for up to $3 billion more savings (i.e. cuts to spending) in 2015. "It's crucial that Greek authorities work with the troika to complete the current review,” but with the government in Athens refusing to concede there is a funding hole, the standoff means Greece may miss a Dec. 8 deadline for agreement on the steps required to unlock the 'aid' tranche.

One bank is already set to benefit from the ABS program no matter what its actual outcome and impact on the European economy: the same bank that spawned none other than ECB's head... Mario Draghi. According to Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Group says it’s adding staff to its European asset-backed securities business as the bank prepares for a resurgence in the $305 billion market that shrank more than 40 percent over the past four years.

"My personal fond hope and expectation is still for a market that runs deep into bubble territory (which starts, as mentioned earlier, at 2250 on the S&P 500 on our data) before crashing as it always does. Hopefully by then, but depending on what the rest of the world’s equities do, our holdings of global equities will be down to 20% or less. Usually the bubble excitement – which seems inevitably to be led by U.S. markets – starts about now, entering the sweet spot of the Presidential Cycle’s year three, but occasionally, as you have probably discovered the hard way already, history can be a snare and not a help." - Jeremy Grantham

NAHB homebuilder sentiment rose to 58 in November, from 54 in Oct, beating expectations but remains below the 59 cycle highs in September. Since those highs, Prospective Buyer Traffic is down the most but remains near cycle highs. The Northeast saw a huge spike in Prospective Buyer Traffic (from 39 to 51) and The West bounced back from its plunge in October. So if everything's so awesome, what's wrong with these two charts...

The S&P 500 is now up 12.5% from the Bullard lows in mid-October and has broken to new record highs over 2048 - within 2 points of Goldman Sachs year-end target. Since Bullard's comments, the S&P 500 has been up 19 days and down only 5 (and today will be the 23rd day in a row of closing above its 5-day moving-average - a record!) WTI crude oil prices are collapsing back to cycle lows below $75 but perhaps most notable is the plunge in 'implied correlation' - which measures the relative demand for individual stock protection over index macro protection. Implied correlation is at a record low - which suggests capitulation among those with macro overlays (like Carl Icahn)...

“Unconventional measures might entail the purchase of a variety of assets, one of which is sovereign bonds,” the ECB president said in Brussels yesterday in answer to a question during his quarterly testimony to lawmakers at the European Parliament. Draghi and the uber doves appear determined to ignore the failure of QE in both the U.S. and Japan.

The bad news in today's PPI inflation report: por prices soared by 7% in the past month, while beef prices hit a new record high, rising 2% in the month, and up nearly 30% from a year ago. The good news: for the first time in years, booze prices declined from a year ago. So, with compliments of the hoapy president: don't be moapy and start drinking cheap booze, preferably early and often, as you try to remember - in an alcoholic daze - what beef tastes like.

Janet Yellen will be pleased... or not. Producer Price Inflation printed hotter than expected across all its various incarnations (good news, no deflation; bad news, no deflation excuse for The Fed). Ex Food-and-Energy prices rose 1.8% YoY (4-month highs), considerably more than the 1.5% expectations but surged 0.4% MoM - the most in 16 months. PPI Final Demand rose 1.5% YoY (1.3% exp). The rise in PPI appears driven by Food prices which are up 1.0% (the most since April) and Trade PPI (+1.5%) thanks to a 26.1% jump in margins for fuels and lubricants retailing (under new calculation methods) accounted for nearly 40% of the rise in final demand.