Archive - Nov 18, 2014

Major equity / Credit divergences should always be taken very seriously. They were among the best forward looking indicators at almost every major turning point for equities over the last 20 years. Today, the divergence is visible again. The fact that all this is happening while bullish sentiment in the US is at record highs is of particular worry. Everyone is expecting higher equities due to lower yields and depressed food and energy prices. But when everyone is thinking alike, no one is really thinking...

A few weeks after VIX, aka market implied vol, soared from the mid teens to 30 following the Trasury flash crash and the subsequent near correction in the market before the much publicized James Bullard stick save of the "wealth effect", VIX has since tumbled and at last check was once again trading in the 13/14 range, above the recent all time lows hit over the summer, even as the market continues to levitate on zero volume to ever higher record highs. So what does this mean for that other volatility, actual realized? As Newedge's Brad Wishak points out, "30 days ago 5 day realized was printing 2yr highs (28%) vs 1% y'day." He also notes that the only lower realized vol print in the past decade was in September 2005.

• Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe Calls Snap Election (WSJ) - as repeatedly priced in...
• Flash Boys Raising Volatility in Wild New Treasury Market (BBG)
• Not Greece again: Greek Bailout Review Stalls as Troika Demands Final Steps (BBG)
• Iran uses China bank to transfer funds to Quds-linked companies (Reuters)
• Porn Mags With Free Madrid Theater Tickets in Tax Protest (BBG)
• Hong Kong, China stocks ease on profit-taking after stock connect launch (Reuters) - Hang Seng down 500 points in past 2 days
• Halliburton Mega-Deal Sealed by CEOs Over Coke and Coffee (BBG)
• Wall Street to Reap $316 Million From Day of Mega Deals (BBG)
• Mass murderer Charles Manson gets marriage license, state says (Reuters)

After weeks of relentless flashing red headline barrage whose only purpose was to force snap algo buying of the USDJPY pair time after time after time, Japan is once again out of FX algo danging carrots after moments ago Abe confirmed what everyone had known already: he called a snap election to seek a mandate for his decision to delay by 18 months a further sales-tax increase that had been planned for next year; he also said he would dissolve the lower house of parliament on Nov. 21 in preparation for an election in December, without specifying a date. Cited by the WSJ, Abe said "To ensure the success of Abenomics, I’ve concluded that it shouldn’t be carried out next October and instead be postponed by 18 months,” the prime minister told a nationally televised news conference, stressing that the additional tax burden would risk putting the economy back into deflation. “I will seek the people’s judgment over our economic policy."