Archive - Nov 24, 2014

All the stimulus, all $50 trillion or so globally, has been thrown into the fire, and look at where we are. There’s nothing left, and there won’t be another $50 trillion. Sure, stock markets set records. But who cares with oil at $40? Calling for more QE, from Japan and/or Europe or even grandma Yellen, is either entirely useless or will work only to prop up stock markets for a very short time. Diminishing returns. The one word that comes to mind here is bloodbath.

Auto loan delinquency rates jumped nearly 13% in the last year, according to a new report by Transunion, with young (under-30) Americans seeing a 17.8% surge in 60+ day delinquency rates, as auto loan debt rose for the 14th straight quarter to $17,352. While these are notable rises, the overall levels remain low for now, but subprime-loan-delinquencies rose notably to 5.31%. However, in a somewhat stunningly blinkered conclusion, Transunion's Peter Terek notes "the uptick in delinquency reflects a healthy and thriving auto finance industry where credit is more broadly available to all consumers." So delinquencies are great news...

All of this mighty, tragic effort to prop up a matrix of lies might have gone into a set of activities aimed at preserving the project of remaining civilized. But that would have required the dismantling of rackets such as agri-business, big-box commerce, the medical-hostage game, the Happy Motoring channel-stuffing scam, the suburban sprawl “industry,” and the higher ed loan swindle. All of these evil systems have to go and must be replaced by more straightforward and honest endeavors aimed at growing food, doing trade, healing people, traveling, building places worth living in, and learning useful things.

Once again it appears France is speaking from both sides of its mouth. As Hollande openly stands behind moar sanctions against Russia and 'talks' about withholding delivery of the first Mistral-class helicopter carriers to Russia, ITAR-TASS reports the construction of the second ship - ironically named Sevastopol, after the capital of Crimea - has been carried out according to schedule. Furthermore, judging by the rhetoric of foreign affairs minister d'Artagnan that "France’s obligations to Russia under the contract on the helicopter carrier must be fulfilled," it appears Putin will get his way soon.

If the sellside community was expected to side with the Fed and sell Treasury paper, especially near maturities, then today's 2 Year auction, which just priced at a hot 0.542%, or 1.1 bps through the 0.553% When Issued, indicating more than ample demand for Treasury paper. Further confirming the demand was the surging Bid to Cover, which at 3.714 was the highest of 2014, and the most since December's 3.767.The internals too showed demand across all buyer classes, with Directs taking down 16.2%, Indirects getting 35.83% of the auction and Dealers left with 48%, or just a fraction below the 12 month average.

Rising gold and US dollar is the most economically favourable environment for gold equities - particularly those with production. If the number of dollars you receive per unit of gold increases, and at the same time the value of those dollars increases, your revenue increase will reflect both inputs.

A week after stunned Tribeca woke up to news of a grizzly death in which a Citigroup managing director living on Greenwich Street was found dead in his bathtub with a slashed throat and the lack of a suicide weapon on the scene suggesting there was foul play involved, another banking executive was killed over the weekend, when 54-year-old Melissa Millian, a senior vice president at MassMutual, was found lying in a road in Simsbury, Connecticut, having been stabbed in the chest.

More of the same blather from Europe as following Weidmann's earlier comments with regard the high-hurdles that the ECB still faces over sovereign QE, Coeure has come out to counter that by noting that the ECB does not have to see deflation to act and that they want to have a discussion of asset-purchases next week. EUR faded the Weidmann gains and Gold and silver are sliding as USD strengthens.

Should We Trust Governments Which Pass Around Our Nude Images ... While Protecting PEDOPHILES?

Presented with no comment...

We find that, unsurprisingly, AAPL has regained its top spot as the global hedge fund hotel's most beloved stock. In fact, 4 of the 5 most widely held names are all tech names, with GOOG, MSFT and FB rounding out the top 4, and only Citigroup as the outlier in the top 5. Perhaps more notable is that the former hedge fund darlings AIG and GM, have been abandoned by the HF crowd, and were in 9th and 16th place, respectively.

The earlier 'under pressure' resignation of Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel means President Obama has to make a personnel announcement... explaining exactly what characteristics he is looking for as he prepares to invade the middle east? One wonders if he will assume the duty of SecDef?

What we have is an All American Clusterfuck!

Of the 15 sub-indices under the Dallas Fed Manufacturing survey, only 4 improved in November with New orders tumbling, and wages, number of employees, and average workweek all sliding notably. So, with that in mind, thanks to a surge in 'hope'-based business activity outlook 6 months forward (from 13.3 to 18.3), the Dallas Fed printed 10.5 (against expectations of 9.0) and unchanged from October's 10.5. The number of employees shrank to its lowest in 6 months.

You cannot have the market drop 7% and then rally an even larger 10% in less than month based solely on a single non-voting Fed President’s comments and NOT be in a bubble.