Archive - Nov 25, 2014

“Ordinary people are unnerved about how money works in a bottomless cyber space. Gold seems tangible, clear and timeless”

"Isolated?"

It has been half a year since it was first revealed that the US has been sending non-lethal aid to the Ukraine: recall that it was in early June when Obama announced he had approved $5 million in body armor, night vision goggles and additional communications equipment for the Ukrainian military. However, as lately has been a recurrent theme, the Obama administration may not have been exactly forthright with the public or the facts. At least that is the conclusion based on hacked documents released earlier today by the Ukrainian hackers group CyberBerkut, which reveal that despite assurances to the contrary, the US has in fact been providing substantial lethal aid to Ukraine's armed forces. As Sputniknews reports, "according to the hackers, the information was obtained during the visit of US Vice President Joe Biden to Ukraine last week, when they were able to access confidential State Department documents via a mobile device of a US delegation member."

Long ago, Keynes himself pointed out, perhaps inadvertently, the profound difference between GDP and wealth. If we merely want a higher GDP print - which measures spending, not wealth - governments should handout spoons so that millions of citizens can dig holes and millions more refill them. It would appear that the statesmen of Brussels are fixing to try the modern day equivalent of just that.

Countdown has begun...

Gallup recently conducted a poll asking Americans to rate (excellent, good, fair, or poor) thirteen of the most visible agencies/quasi-agencies of the United States government... the winner may surprise you (as a taxpaying member of the public).

If yesterday's 2 Year stopping through auction was best described as "blistering", then today's 5 Year, which again stopped through the When Issued 1.614% by a whopping 1.9 bps, was nothing short of a scorcher. Oddly enough, in a time when demand considerations should be sparking a lack of primary market demand for paper, investors just couldn't get enough collateral, and as a result while the Dealer bid was quite possibly a record low 25.1%, it was the Indirects that stunned with their aggressive bid, taking down a record 65% of the auction, leaving just under 10% for Direct bidders. Finally, the Bid to Cover left little to the imagination: soaring from last month's paltry 2.36, it jumped to 2.91, the highest print since March. Needless to say the entire curve buckled tighter on the news, with the yield on the 10 Year printing at a day's low of only 2.279% as once again all the "economic recovery" shorts are left scrambling.

Less than two hours after Venezuela noted that no supply cut had been pre-agreed, The Wall Street Journal reports...

*OPEC MEMBERS SAID TO MOVE TOWARD CUTTING OIL SUPPLY: WSJ

And oil prices are jumping. However, a big below the surface shows this story is more about stricter compliance than an actual supply cut.

Having shifted from a call for calm ("we want peace"), to understandably emotionally proclaiming "burn this bitch down," right after the decision last night (noting "profound disappointment"), Michael Brown's parents are preparing to make a statement (along with Al Sharpton)... claiming that the investigation was 'broken' but once again calling for peace.

Remember when three weeks ago, everyone was stunned as the Manufacturing ISM soared to new 3 year highs, continuing this summer's trend of blistering manufacturing, which was largely attributed to a burst of automotive production? Now, courtesy of the latest Q3 household credit report by the NY Fed, we know just how it was funded. According to the report, some $105 billion in new car loans were issued is the third quarter, the highest amount since 2005, and just $20 billion shy of an all time high. That's the good news. The bad news as Equifax reported two months ago, new subprime loan origination is trending at about 31% and rising. And what's worst, is that recently both Moody's and Fitch joined forces in making up for their past oversights, and "slammed subprime auto bonds" suggesting this latest bout of subprime driven euphoria boosting the US manufacturing sector may not last. Or it may: after all the central banks are always on the lookout for new things to monetize.

Multiple sources overnight reported gun fire around Ferguson and while one police officer was reported shot in the leg, this morning, the night's first fatality has been discovered. As NY Daily News reports, police found a body inside a car parked near the Canfield apartment complex in the St. Louis suburb, close to where 18-year-old Michael Brown was shot dead in August. The victim, a black male in his 20s, was shot and burned in the trunk of a white Pontiac car with the driver's side window shot out.

Since moral hazard - the disconnect of risk and consequence - is the fundamental cause of the global meltdown of 2008, the only solution is to eliminate moral hazard. By this we mean de-institutionalizing moral hazard. But de-institutionalizing moral hazard means smashing the vested interests' primary engine of wealth and political power.  Playing monetary games has done nothing to eliminate moral hazard; indeed, playing monetary games cannot possibly eliminate moral hazard, as monetary policy enforces moral hazard.

"... Shortly after returning from a trip in late 2009, Farmer erased electronic notes, in Microsoft Word format, that were stored on thumb drives, Zip drives and a shared drive at Citadel, agents wrote in a summary of one of the interviews with him. Farmer also threw away his handwritten notes because that was his normal practice and because they were incriminating, agents wrote. Farmer got rid of e-mails as well, according to their summary. “This,” they wrote, “wiped the slate clean."

We've previously written about how the percentage of sociopaths within a group of humans becomes increasingly concentrated the higher you climb within the positions of power in a society, with it being most chronic amongst those who crave political power (see: Humanity is Rising). The reason for this is obvious. Those with the sickest minds, and who wish to act upon their destructive fantasies, understand that they can most easily get away with their deeds if they are protected by an aura of power and ostensible respectability. They believe that as a result of their status, no one would dare accuse them of horrific activities, and if it ever came to that, they could quash any investigation. Unfortunately for us all, this is typically the case.

Following the four-way pre-OPEC meeting between Russia, Mexico, Venezuela, and Saudi Arabia, Venezuela's foreign minister warned:

*NO AGREEMENT ON OUTPUT REDUCTION AT 4-WAY MEETING: RAMIREZ

And oil prices slipped notably. "The most important thing is we are talking," Ramirez noted... but markets are not waiting.