Archive - Nov 3, 2014

Chi Chi, get the yeyo...

In simple terms… we’re back in 2007, but the Fed will have very real limitations to what it can do when this bubble pops. And it will pop in the not so distant future.

US manufacturing both declined (PMI) and rose (ISM) in October as the divergence  between the two soft-survey-based data streams is as ridiculous as it was in the second half of last year. ISM printed a cycle high 59.0 (highest since March 2011) smashing the 56.1 expectations (the biggest beat since July 2013). While the headline print was exuberant, New orders fell, as did new export orders. Construction spending fell for the 2nd month in a row, dropping 0.4% against expectations of a 0.7% rise.

Moments ago, GM was pleased to report that its dealers delivered 226,819 vehicles in the United States in October leading to "the company’s best October sales in seven years." But it could have been much worse if GM had not resorted to its favorite sales "boosting" gimmick: channel stuffing. Indeed, as GM reported, in October, total units at dealer lots, rose to 792,489, or a whopping 94 days supply, up from 753, 928 (81 days) in September, and up a whopping 8.9% from the 728K in October of last year, when, again, sales were only 0.2% lower.  This was the biggest one month jump in "dealer stuffed" vehicles since November of 2013.

But, but, but the US is the cleanest dirty short that has decoupled from the rest of the world and is the engine of global growth... right? Well with residential investment having plunged, and now manufacturing PMI slumping, we are going to need a better meme. US Manufacturing PMI printed 55.9 final for October, missing expectations fo 56.2 (for 5th month in a row), sliding to its lowest since July. Markit gingerly admits, "the latest figures indicate that the recovery has lost some intensity at the start of the fourth quarter." So, in summary, the US is decoupling from the rest of the world and US GDP is decoupling from both domestic housing and manufacturing?

Despite the Obama Administration continuing to insist that its strategy in Syria is "working," The Telegraph reports that two of the main rebel groups receiving weapons from the US to fight both the regime and jihadist groups in Syria have surrendered to al-Qaeda. Rather stunningly, the Syrian Revolutionary Front, one of the largest "vetted, moderate" US-backed rebel forces, has been effectively wiped out; and has handed over all their weapons and bases including US-provided anti-tank missiles and GRAD rockets. Simply out, "as a movement, the SRF is effectively finished," but apart from that US foreign policy is 'nailing it'. As The Telegraph concludes, for the US, the weapons they supplied falling into the hands of al-Qaeda is a realisation of a nightmare.

Just as we 'forecast' this morning, on no news whatsoever...

While east Ukraine, aka the Donetsk Republic, was voting over the weekend in what the west pre-emptively classified as another sham vote as its outcome would merely push east Ukraine even closer to the Kremlin, Russia was busy conducting its most comprehensive Nuclear preparedness drill in recent history, one involving the entire "nuclear triad" consisting of strategic bombers; submarines and an the ICBM shown below on Saturday morning.

"Wrong" again. Just two days ago we mentioned how world-renowned wrongness appears to be a pre-requisite for selling investing newsletters as Dennis Gartman unleashed his Nikkei 25,000 prediction on the world. Crucially though, it appears the great Gartman has taken the first step on the path to rejuvenation by 'admitting' his wrongness (though appears to have fallen short of making amends) as he told CNBC this morning, "I went neutral on stocks and I actually turned quite bearish for a couple of days – clearly that was wrong." What is clear - just as was proved by no lesser investing dynamo than Whitney Tilson - investing prowess is inversely proportional to the frequency of appearance on financial media... trade accordingly.

"Crash" is the new normal in FX markets it would appear. As the following charts show, first we had AUD turbulence, then EUR crashed, and now JPY is continuing its cataclysmic carry-trade-driven push for hyperinflation as it pushes to 114 - a stunning 6 handles collapse since the FOMC statement...

As its recent 10-K confirmed, AAPL's domestic cash - the amount of cash available for such corporate transactions as dividends and buybacks - had dropped to just $18.1 billion (and that is including the several billion in commercial paper issued in fiscal Q4), the lowest domestic cash hoard since March 2010, a time when AAPL's offshore cash was a tiny $24 billion compared to the near record $137 billion last quarter!  So knowing full well that a buyback a day keep the Icahnator away, AAPL, urgently looking to refill its domestic cash since its offshore cash remains untouchable (absent being taxed on its repatriation), did the only thing it could do: prepare to issue more bonds, which is what we forecast would happen a few weeks ago, and what the WSJ overnight confirmed is already in progress.

• To salvage his presidency, Obama faces pressure to reboot - but will he? (Reuters)
• Pro-Russian separatist Zakharchenko wins Ukraine rebel vote (Reuters)
• Russia's Recognition of Ukrainian Separatist Election Is 'Incomprehensible,' Germany Says (Moscow Times)
• Man Running World’s Biggest Wealth Fund Tackles China Riddle (BBG)
• Russian Supply Underpins Global Oil Glut (WSJ)
• Argentina accuses Procter & Gamble of tax fraud, says suspends operations (Reuters)
• ECB Skips Fireworks for Day One of New Role as Supervisor (BBG)
• HSBC Hit by $1.7 Billion of Provisions (WSJ)

While it is unclear whether it is due to the rare event that no central bank stepped in overnight with a massive liquidity injection or because the USDJPY tracking algo hasn't been activated (moments ago Abe's deathwish for the Japanese economy made some more progress with the USDJPY hitting new mult-year highs just shy of 113.6, on its way to 120 and a completely devastated Japanese economy), but European equities have traded in the red from the get-go, with investor sentiment cautious as a result of a disappointing the Chinese manufacturing report. More specifically, Chinese Manufacturing PMI printed a 5-month low (50.8 vs. Exp. 51.2 (Prev. 51.1)), with new orders down to 51.6 from 52.2, new export orders at 49.9 from 50.2 in September. Furthermore, this morning’s batch of Eurozone PMIs have failed to impress with both the Eurozone and German readings falling short of expectations (51.4 vs Exp. 51.8, Last 51.8), with France still residing in contractionary territory (48.5, vs Exp and Last 47.3).