Archive - Nov 5, 2014

Isn't it odd that 'they threw the bums out' last night and yet, economic confidence is high, stocks are high, and now, according to ADP, private payrolls are great too? Something doesn't add up. ADP printed 230k against expectations of 220k, modestly up from a revised 225k in September. Small and Medium-sized businesses added jobs while the largest firms (over 1000 people) slashed jobs (which is great for the stock, right?).

What if we were as skeptical of the reports on the ECB as we are of the Fed ?

• From Yes We Can to Probably Not (BBG)
• How Mitch McConnell did it (Politico)
• Tough road ahead for Obama after Republicans seize Senate (Reuters)
• Election 2014: Who were the big winners and losers? (USA Today)
• GOP Senate Takeover Puts Fed on Hot Seat (WSJ), and other fables
• GOP Won by Recruiting the Right Candidates (WSJ)
• McCain could shake up U.S. defense in powerful new Senate role (Reuters)
• Investors Pulled Record Amount From Pimco’s Flagship Fund in October (WSJ)
• Taliban group threatens to attack India following border blast (Reuters)
• Oil Import Decline to U.S. Revealed by Louisiana as Truth (BBG)

There is a very strong correlation between the GDP and the demand for gold, even in mature markets!

While hardly a surprise, the spin for the latest round of overnight BOJ USDJPY-buying exuberance, which sent the pair higher by another 100 pips to a fresh 7 year high of 114.500 and just over 500 pips from the Albert Edwards "line in the sand" 120 and pushed US equity futures higher with it, has been the Republican sweep in the midterm elections which not only solidified GOP control of the House but also gave Republicans outright control of the Senate.

For the 5th day in a row, "someone" has decided that 0030ET would be an appropriate time (assuming the 'seller' is an investor who prefers best execution rather than the standard non-economically-rational share-repurchaser in America) to be dumping large amounts of precious metals positions via the futures market. Tonight, with over 13,000 contracts being flushed through Gold - amounting to over $1.5 billion notional, gold prices tumbled $20 to $1151 (its lowest level since April 2010). Silver is well through $16 and back at Feb 2010 lows. The USDollar is also surging.

Keep the change...