Archive - Nov 2014

Less than two hours after Venezuela noted that no supply cut had been pre-agreed, The Wall Street Journal reports...

*OPEC MEMBERS SAID TO MOVE TOWARD CUTTING OIL SUPPLY: WSJ

And oil prices are jumping. However, a big below the surface shows this story is more about stricter compliance than an actual supply cut.

Having shifted from a call for calm ("we want peace"), to understandably emotionally proclaiming "burn this bitch down," right after the decision last night (noting "profound disappointment"), Michael Brown's parents are preparing to make a statement (along with Al Sharpton)... claiming that the investigation was 'broken' but once again calling for peace.

Remember when three weeks ago, everyone was stunned as the Manufacturing ISM soared to new 3 year highs, continuing this summer's trend of blistering manufacturing, which was largely attributed to a burst of automotive production? Now, courtesy of the latest Q3 household credit report by the NY Fed, we know just how it was funded. According to the report, some $105 billion in new car loans were issued is the third quarter, the highest amount since 2005, and just $20 billion shy of an all time high. That's the good news. The bad news as Equifax reported two months ago, new subprime loan origination is trending at about 31% and rising. And what's worst, is that recently both Moody's and Fitch joined forces in making up for their past oversights, and "slammed subprime auto bonds" suggesting this latest bout of subprime driven euphoria boosting the US manufacturing sector may not last. Or it may: after all the central banks are always on the lookout for new things to monetize.

Multiple sources overnight reported gun fire around Ferguson and while one police officer was reported shot in the leg, this morning, the night's first fatality has been discovered. As NY Daily News reports, police found a body inside a car parked near the Canfield apartment complex in the St. Louis suburb, close to where 18-year-old Michael Brown was shot dead in August. The victim, a black male in his 20s, was shot and burned in the trunk of a white Pontiac car with the driver's side window shot out.

Since moral hazard - the disconnect of risk and consequence - is the fundamental cause of the global meltdown of 2008, the only solution is to eliminate moral hazard. By this we mean de-institutionalizing moral hazard. But de-institutionalizing moral hazard means smashing the vested interests' primary engine of wealth and political power.  Playing monetary games has done nothing to eliminate moral hazard; indeed, playing monetary games cannot possibly eliminate moral hazard, as monetary policy enforces moral hazard.

"... Shortly after returning from a trip in late 2009, Farmer erased electronic notes, in Microsoft Word format, that were stored on thumb drives, Zip drives and a shared drive at Citadel, agents wrote in a summary of one of the interviews with him. Farmer also threw away his handwritten notes because that was his normal practice and because they were incriminating, agents wrote. Farmer got rid of e-mails as well, according to their summary. “This,” they wrote, “wiped the slate clean."

We've previously written about how the percentage of sociopaths within a group of humans becomes increasingly concentrated the higher you climb within the positions of power in a society, with it being most chronic amongst those who crave political power (see: Humanity is Rising). The reason for this is obvious. Those with the sickest minds, and who wish to act upon their destructive fantasies, understand that they can most easily get away with their deeds if they are protected by an aura of power and ostensible respectability. They believe that as a result of their status, no one would dare accuse them of horrific activities, and if it ever came to that, they could quash any investigation. Unfortunately for us all, this is typically the case.

Following the four-way pre-OPEC meeting between Russia, Mexico, Venezuela, and Saudi Arabia, Venezuela's foreign minister warned:

*NO AGREEMENT ON OUTPUT REDUCTION AT 4-WAY MEETING: RAMIREZ

And oil prices slipped notably. "The most important thing is we are talking," Ramirez noted... but markets are not waiting.

I said looters, not Hooters!

Shortly after 9pmET last night, prosecutors relayed the grand jury's decision not to charge white Ferguson Police officer Darren Wilson over the death of black teenager Michael Brown... and all hell broke loose...

First Germany, then the Netherlands, perhaps Switzerland this weekend, and now the French right-wing Front National, which shockingly came first in May's European parliament elections, and whose leader Marine Le Pen is currently polling in first place in a hypothetical presidential election (in both a first and run off round), ahead of president Hollande, has sent a letter to the governor of the French Central Bank, the Banque de France, demanding that France join the list of nations which have repatriated, or at least tried to, their gold.

A few points the "stocks are cheap" crowd should consider.

Despite the clear message from stocks that everything in the world is awesome, 30Y Treasury yields have tumbled back below 3.00% - 1-month lows. Perhaps the slew of disappointing data is right after all that the US is not decoupling... just don't tell stocks. Against expectations of a 16 print, Richmond fed printed 4, plunging from its  exuberant 20 levels last month. This is the biggest miss since Jan 2013 (and biggest MoM drop since May 2006) as new order volume collapsed, employment and workweek tumbled, and most major future expectations indices dropped.

With business confidence at post-crisis lows (in the US and around the world), it is hardly surprising that consumer confidence would fade and at 88.7 (vs 96.0 expectations), this is the biggest miss since June 2010. It appears last month's exuberant surge/beat was anomalous as we tumble from 94.5 in October, in spite of tumbling gas prices and record high stocks... The drop was largely driven by a slide in 'hope' as expectations fell to the lowest since June. Labor, employment, and business conditions all dropped.

Apple is not Microsoft.. and Netflix has lost its momo mojo...