Archive - Nov 2014

Having previously shown the dramatic build-up of NATO fighter jets around Russia's border, we thought mapping the rising number of "incidents" - which are worse than during the cold war - between NATO and Russia this year would be useful...

Here's 8 simple numbers to consider...

Over a year ago we reported that one of Twitter early and most aggressive self-promoters, Anthony Davian, was busted for what was at the time financial Twitters' the first Ponzi Scheme.  Today, we can close the case on Athony Davian. As SIRF reports, "Anthony Davian, a once-prolific presence on social media who held himself out as a iconoclastic hedge fund manager prior to his August 2013 indictment on a series of fraud charges, was sentenced several hours ago in a Cleveland courtroom to four years and nine months in federal prison."

Central bankers reached a new low overnight when Swiss National Bank President Thomas Jordan warned of "disastrous consequences" from a pulpit in a church on a historic hill in the town of Uster, Switzerland, which Bloomberg dubbed the 'sermon on the hill.' "Hungry people don't stay hungry for long, they get hope from fire and smoke as they reach for the dawn..."

Abraham Lincoln famously said at Gettysburg in 1863 that a government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth. The system we have today is none of those things.

The last few weeks have been the strongest and most consistent rallies in US equity market history. US equity markets have traded above their 5-day moving average for 27 days - the longest such streak since March 1928 (h/t MKM's John Krinsky) and all amid  GDP downgrades, missed PMIs, and downward earnings outlook revisions. Given the holiday week, it is hardly surprising volume was weak today. Stocks were very mixed today with Russell 2000 and Nasdaq leading the way (along with Trannies) as Dow and S&P showed very small gains - to record highs though. Bonds were also bid with a strong 2Y auction extending the drops in yields (0-2bps) led by 7Y. The USDollar fell 0.4% - led by EUR strength - as JPY, CAD, and AUD all weakened. Despite USD weakness, oil (big drop intraday), copper, and gold also dropped on the day with silver ending +0.25%. VIX dropped to 12.66 - its lowest close in over 2 months.

Despite the best efforts of central planners, shit still happens (even in China). In an 'Onion-esque' story, China.org reports a cesspool filled with excrement exploded in a central Chinese city, injuring 15 residents and toppling a building on Saturday, police said. But this is not the only excrement-enthused event in China...

All the stimulus, all $50 trillion or so globally, has been thrown into the fire, and look at where we are. There’s nothing left, and there won’t be another $50 trillion. Sure, stock markets set records. But who cares with oil at $40? Calling for more QE, from Japan and/or Europe or even grandma Yellen, is either entirely useless or will work only to prop up stock markets for a very short time. Diminishing returns. The one word that comes to mind here is bloodbath.

Auto loan delinquency rates jumped nearly 13% in the last year, according to a new report by Transunion, with young (under-30) Americans seeing a 17.8% surge in 60+ day delinquency rates, as auto loan debt rose for the 14th straight quarter to $17,352. While these are notable rises, the overall levels remain low for now, but subprime-loan-delinquencies rose notably to 5.31%. However, in a somewhat stunningly blinkered conclusion, Transunion's Peter Terek notes "the uptick in delinquency reflects a healthy and thriving auto finance industry where credit is more broadly available to all consumers." So delinquencies are great news...

All of this mighty, tragic effort to prop up a matrix of lies might have gone into a set of activities aimed at preserving the project of remaining civilized. But that would have required the dismantling of rackets such as agri-business, big-box commerce, the medical-hostage game, the Happy Motoring channel-stuffing scam, the suburban sprawl “industry,” and the higher ed loan swindle. All of these evil systems have to go and must be replaced by more straightforward and honest endeavors aimed at growing food, doing trade, healing people, traveling, building places worth living in, and learning useful things.

Once again it appears France is speaking from both sides of its mouth. As Hollande openly stands behind moar sanctions against Russia and 'talks' about withholding delivery of the first Mistral-class helicopter carriers to Russia, ITAR-TASS reports the construction of the second ship - ironically named Sevastopol, after the capital of Crimea - has been carried out according to schedule. Furthermore, judging by the rhetoric of foreign affairs minister d'Artagnan that "France’s obligations to Russia under the contract on the helicopter carrier must be fulfilled," it appears Putin will get his way soon.

If the sellside community was expected to side with the Fed and sell Treasury paper, especially near maturities, then today's 2 Year auction, which just priced at a hot 0.542%, or 1.1 bps through the 0.553% When Issued, indicating more than ample demand for Treasury paper. Further confirming the demand was the surging Bid to Cover, which at 3.714 was the highest of 2014, and the most since December's 3.767.The internals too showed demand across all buyer classes, with Directs taking down 16.2%, Indirects getting 35.83% of the auction and Dealers left with 48%, or just a fraction below the 12 month average.

Rising gold and US dollar is the most economically favourable environment for gold equities - particularly those with production. If the number of dollars you receive per unit of gold increases, and at the same time the value of those dollars increases, your revenue increase will reflect both inputs.

A week after stunned Tribeca woke up to news of a grizzly death in which a Citigroup managing director living on Greenwich Street was found dead in his bathtub with a slashed throat and the lack of a suicide weapon on the scene suggesting there was foul play involved, another banking executive was killed over the weekend, when 54-year-old Melissa Millian, a senior vice president at MassMutual, was found lying in a road in Simsbury, Connecticut, having been stabbed in the chest.

More of the same blather from Europe as following Weidmann's earlier comments with regard the high-hurdles that the ECB still faces over sovereign QE, Coeure has come out to counter that by noting that the ECB does not have to see deflation to act and that they want to have a discussion of asset-purchases next week. EUR faded the Weidmann gains and Gold and silver are sliding as USD strengthens.