Archive - Nov 2014

In what is hardly a surprising outcome, the parties involved in the Iran nuclear talks have decided it best for all to extend (and pretend) the discussion for another 7 months:

*IRAN NUCLEAR TALKS EXTENDED UNTIL JULY 1, OFFICIALS SAY

Diplomatic teams will reconvene in December and the US State Department is proclaiming "good progress" in a brief statement. 7 more months of sanctions, a call with Putin today, and OPEC later in the week... one wonders if any of this will be relevant in 7 months. Additionally, it seems beggars can be choosers as P5+1 says Iran can get $700 million per month in frozen assets back...

Goosing stocks ever higher will eventually push wealth inequality to the point that it unleashes social instability.

• Grand jury expected to resume Ferguson police shooting deliberations (Reuters)
• PBOC Bounce Seen Short Lived as History Defies Bulls (BBG)
• Home prices dropped in September for the first time since January (HousingWire)
• UPS Teaches Holiday Recruits to Fend Off Dogs, Dodge NYC Taxis (BBG)
• US oil imports from Opec at 30-year low (FT)
• Hedge Funds Bet on Coal-Mining Failures (WSJ)
• Putin Woos Pakistan as Cold War Friend India Buys U.S. Arms (BBG)
• How the EU Plans to Turn $26 Billion Into $390 Billion (BBG)
• The $31 Billion Bet Against Brazil’s New Finance Minister (BBG)

Another day, another case of central banks, not one but two this time, dictating "price" action.

There's an interesting initiative on the Swiss ballot, which imposes a barrier to currency debasement. It's a heroic measure, but there's a flaw.

Presented without comment...

Forget Black Friday and Q4 GDP... it appears, from the most recent forecasts that from Wednesday on this week, the eastern US faces a 'White Five-Day' as Accuweather reports "an increasing likelihood for a swath of heavy snow stretching from eastern Pennsylvania through New York's Hudson Valley and across much of New England before all is said and done." Furthermore, as WaPo notes, Wednesday’s possible storm has a chance to develop into a legitimate Nor’easter (though current models offer 3 scenarios).

Since May, CEO confidence among America's largest companies had stagnated - even as stocks did what they do and rise, rise, rise. That changed when Bullard (now explained as "misunderstood" by the market) set fire to stocks with his QE4 hints and Plunge Protection Team rescue. However, the last 2 weeks have seen a noticable collapse once again in CEO confidence, according to Bloomberg's Orange Book index, even as stocks reach new higher all-time-er highs. As Bloomberg's Rich Yamarone notes, recent earnings calls highlight the headwinds companies face: Executives cite “softness in consumer spending,” a “challenging” climate, “fairly stagnant economy,” and “cautious” optimism. Currency valuations are front and center.

"Even if economic conditions continue improving, equity prices are bound to fall sharply at some point, inflicting painful losses on investors. This is what happened in 1987, roughly five years into the last structural bull market. Boom-bust cycles are inevitable because improving economic conditions encourage speculative excesses, which are then blown away as greed gives way to fear."

Still convinced it's different this time? Think again... these 9 charts suggest Europe is very much on its way to Japan... and remember Japan was doing QE through this period too...

The epic voyage of USD Longs and Treasury Shorts continues...

While reflecting on how many of 2014's "outrageous predictions" came true (and the still strong US equity markets), Saxobank CIO and Chief Economist Steen Jakobsen warns 2015 will see "deeper and deeper market corrections." If we continue to apply medicine to keep the patient alive, instead of dealing with the disease Jakobsen ominously warns, 2015 will see increased volatility and mean-reversion, "think in terms of October 1987 or 9/11."

With hopes high, at least among corner offices of the majors, that this week's OPEC meeting will somehow manage to slow down the biggest plunge in crude prices since Lehman, it will take much more than mere talk and hollow promises to offset the recent cartel-busting actions of Saudi Arabia. So in a worst case scenario where supply remains unchanged even as global energy demand continues to decline sharply due to the ongoing global slowdown what is the worst case scenario that could happen - aside from the mass energy HY defaults discussed previously - should the price of a barrel of oil continue to correlate the change in 2014 global GDP estimated? Here are some thoughts from Deutsche Bank.