Archive - Nov 2014

The Fed minutes can be boiled down to 3 two-word factors: "inflation rate", "economic policy", and "market conditions" - all of which overshadow words like "growth" and "jobs" and "employment"

Having done nothing but rally since the FOMC statement on 10/29 that ended QE, the minutes provide little additional info aside from to note that some participants wanted to drop "considerable time":

• *MANY FED OFFICIALS SAW LIMITED IMPACT FROM GLOBAL SLOWDOWN
• *FED OFFICIALS SAW NEED TO WATCH FOR INFLATION EXPECTATIONS DROP
• *FOMC OPTED NOT TO MENTION FINANCIAL MARKET TURMOIL AFTER DEBATE

If they don't mention, it never happened

As previously reported, the anticipated Polar Vortex 2.0 has struck, pushing temperatures in all 50 states to below freezing, while heavy snow prompted a state of emergency in western New York and contributed to the deaths of four people. According to Reuters, it was the coldest November morning across the country since 1976, according to Weather Bell Analytics, a meteorologist consulting firm. It remains to be seen how many GDP percentage points were wiped out as a result, unless of course, this time it will be different from last winter. But it was the situation in upstate New York, especially around Bufallo and parts of Erie County, where things got most dire and where 60 inches (1.5 m) of snow accumulated, with more falling, said Steven Welch of the National Weather Service near Buffalo. It gets worse: forecasters are calling for more snow on Thursday, as much as three feet more, for a total of up to 100 inches over four days - a year's worth for the region!

The BTFDippier of the fast money is already rotating into a long-Europe mode: their entire thesis is that sooner or later the whales will have no choice but to follow the momentum chasers right back into Europe, because where else are they going to go: in the "safety" of the S&P's 19x GAAP P/E?  In theory this would be a great strategy, if only in a world in which nobody actually does any fundamental homework and the only thing that matters is frontrunning the next great sucker. In practice, it is fatally wrong. As the following observation from hedge fund Lyxor shows, while CTA and momentum strats have indeed bailed on Europe in recent months, the so-called smart money, the "global macro" funds never left.

Ahead of President Obama's address to the nation tomorrow to dictate his executive orders on immigration, potentially allowing millions of undocumented immigrants to stay legally in the US, a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finds nearly half of Americans disapprove of his plan. Only a dismal 38% support the President taking this executive action... which makes us wonder if there has ever been so much revulsion at the policies of a standing President. It's good to be king.

It appears the FX and Precious Metals markets have as much faith in the pre-Swiss Gold Referendum polls as the Scots did before their referendum. The clearly leaked results sparked considerable weakness in gold and silver (and EURCHF surge), but once the data was released, markets began to creep back - perhaps questioning the plausibility of such a big swing in such a short amount of time. This surge was also helped by some unusually frank comments on Russian gold buying from the Russian Central Bank.  Gold, Silver, and EURCHF have all recovered the moves with the latter pressing towads cycle lows...

Russia’s central bank bought about 150 metric tons of the metal this year, announced Governor Elvira Nabiullina yesterday. The pronouncement immediately created buying in the market, prompting gold to rise to a two week high at $1,200 an ounce.

 Trader's Magazine reports that "as part of KCG's continued push into the institutional trading side of the business"... which is a euphemism for please trade with us: we won't blow up again, we promise... "the well-regarded and historically focused market-maker [ZH: if you keep repeating that it magically comes true, just ask world-renowned trader Dennis Gartman] has built its first brand new algorithmic trading tool - Catch."  What does the algo known as Catch do? Well, supposedly it offsets the impact of all other algos who have crushed market liquidity.

This past month, a real-life guild of thieves was formed. With 51 governments pledging their support to each other for the protection of their ignoble craft of theft. And another 30 pledging to join by 2018.

The financial system is lurching towards the next round of the Great Crisis that began in 2007.

While what normally happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas; President Obama's decision to dictate his Immigration Executive Order from sin city will likely have repurcussions across the entire nation. As NY Times reports, Obama is preparing to use his executive authority to provide work permits for up to five million people who are in the US illegally, and to shield them from deportation. But these new arrivals will not receive one key benefit: government subsidies for health care available under Obamacare. The immigrants would also be unlikely to receive benefits like food stamps, Medicaid coverage or other need-based federal programs offered to citizens and to some legal residents. "The costs of extending these programs to millions of low-wage illegal immigrants would be enormous," said Senator Jeff Sessions "this is yet another danger posed to Americans by the president’s unconstitutional action."

Because nothing says unrigged like a collapse across the commodity complex (gold, silver, copper, and crude) as London's Gold Fixing Company auction takes place... Or did the Fed leak its minutes like it did in 2013? It appears the real reason is the early release of Swiss Gold Referendum poll data that shows a drop from 44% "Yes" to 38% "Yes".

In case you are wondering through Ukraine and come across a tank, the British embassy in Kiev has issued a handy pocket guide to indentifying whether it is Russian (bad guys) or Ukrainian (good guys)...

For 'years' the US stock market has traded on 'fun-durr-mentals' - tracking USDJPY tick for tick day in day out as algos tickle leveraged currency trades to ignote momentum in US equities and guarantee 'proof' in the recovery. The correlation, however, between USDJPY and stocks (US and Japanese) has begun to deteriorate rapidly since Kuroda unleased Godzilla QQE... and today it is very clear...

While the impact of the student loan bubble on the labor participation rate has been extensively covered in the past, there is a just as important question of just what these "students" spend their money on. Among the items revealed: "A U.S. Middle District Court indictment alleges that Price spent much of the loan money on crack cocaine, cars, motorcycles, jewelry, tattoos and video games." And iPhones of course, because someone has to indirectly provide US subsidies to the NSA's favorite company. Now we know one more thing that America's young adults, of whom some 24% expect that their debt will ultimately be forgiven, are blowing Uncle Sam's debt on. The answer: high-school level classes.