Archive - Nov 2014

• Moar central banks! Asian Stocks Rise Amid Stimulus Speculation; Topix Jumps (BBG)
• Syria rebels in south emerge as West's last hope as moderates crushed elsewhere (Reuters)
• Bufett's Berkshire to Buy Duracell Business From Procter & Gamble in $3B Deal (AP)
• Weak Demand, Real-Estate Slump Signal Headwinds for China (WSJ)
• China Slowdown Deepens as Leaders Said to Mull Cutting Target (BBG)
• Saudis Reject Talk of OPEC Market Share War as Oil Slides (BBG)
• Oil Tankers Stream Toward China as Price Drop Sparks Boom (BBG)

Wal-Mart's Q3 earnings, reported minutes ago, were a masterclass in bottom-line fudgery.

The relentless regurgitation of the only two rumors that have moved markets this week, namely the Japanese sales tax delay and the "surprise" cabinet snap elections, was once again all over the newswires last night in yet another iteration, and as a result the headline scanning algos took the Nikkei another 1.1% higher to nearly 17,400 which means at this rate the Nikkei will surpass the Dow Jones by the end of the week helped by further reports that Japan will reveal more stimulus measures on November 19, although with US equity futures rising another 7 points overnight and now just shy of 2050 which happens to be Goldman's revised year-end target, the US will hardly complain. And speaking of stimulus, the reason European equities are drifting higher following the latest ECB professional forecast release which saw the panel slash their GDP and inflation forecasts for the entire period from 2014 to 2016. In other words bad news most certainly continues to be good news for stocks, which in the US are about to hit another record high (with the bulk of the upside action once again concentrated between 11:00 and 11:30am).

On Sunday in Brisbane the G20 will announce that bank deposits are just part of commercial banks’ capital structure, and also that they are far from the most senior portion of that structure. With deposits then subjected to a decline in nominal value following a bank failure, it is self-evident that a bank deposit is no longer money in the way a banknote is. If a banknote cannot be subjected to a decline in nominal value, we need to ask whether banknotes can act as a superior store of value than bank deposits? If that is the case, will some investors prefer banknotes to bank deposits as a form of savings? Such a change in preference is known as a "bank run."

Throughout history, in most cases of economic collapse the societies in question believed they were financially invincible just before their disastrous fall. Rarely does anyone see the edge of the cliff or even the bottom of the abyss before it has swallowed a nation whole. This lack of foresight, however, is not entirely the fault of the public. It is, rather, a consequence caused by the manipulation of the fundamental information available to the public by governments and social gatekeepers.

"The chew seen around the world," as President Obama chomped on Nicorette gum during the recent APEC summit ceremonies, has sparked outrage in China, describing his behavior as "rude" and "inappropriate." We suspect that explains why he was - once again - relegated to the 'old wives club' at dinner...

Just one chart...

Because the masses in a democratic polity are deeply imbued with the ideology of egalitarianism and the myth of majority rule, the ruling elites who control and benefit from the state recognize the utmost importance of concealing its oligarchic and exploitative nature from the masses. Continual war making against foreign enemies is a perfect way to disguise the naked clash of interests between the taxpaying and tax-consuming classes.

For 14 years, as Japan's economic demise grew more and more evident, its currency devalued relative to gold (the only non-fiat numeraire). When Abenomics began, the trend began to stabilize... but for the last year or so - as The Fed tapered - JPY and Gold have practically flatlined around 132,000 JPY per ounce. This 'odd' stability stands in strangely stark contrast to the volatility and trends in the USD, JPY, and Gold over this period. Even amid the collapse in JPY in recent weeks, it has remained firmly inside a 3% envelope of the 'peg'.

Do you want to know why Millennials seem so angry?  We promised them that if they worked hard, stayed out of trouble and got good grades that they would be able to achieve the "American Dream".  We told them not to worry about accumulating very high levels of student loan debt because there would be good jobs waiting for them at the end of the rainbow once they graduated.  Well, it turns out that we lied to them.

With the yen reaching seven-year lows, Japanese officials are being pressed by exchange-rate questions from reporters and lawmakers. As policy-makers weigh the costs of the weaker currency along with its benefits, here is a guide to gradations of concern at exchange-rate movements based on remarks in the past.

Hopefully, these charts will give you some food for thought. With everybody so bullish, what could possibly go wrong?

"We could have started later, but then we wouldn’t be sure to get first in line," says Vickey Torres, camped outside the Beaumont Best Buy 22 days before Black Friday. "Some people say we’re crazy."

Is this what they mean when they say 'net neutrality'? From Brazil’s rejection of American IT products - estimated that American firms will lose out on over $35 billion in revenue over the next two years - to this week's announcement that it will be building a 3,500-mile fiber-optic cable to Portugal in order to avoid the grip of the NSA, it appears the Red, White, and Blue Scare has now replaced the Red Scare of the Cold War era.

This Austrian School interpretation of events fits the facts rather better than the monetarist account.  The lesson for policymakers today is uncomfortable.  For, on this view, if there is a parallel with the 1930s, the damage has already been done.  It was done when the Fed allowed funds available for investment in capital markets to balloon, not this time through unsterilized gold inflows but through its QE experiment.